Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FNUS74 KEPZ 141832
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Palmer Loop Fire  Pigeon Canyon...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
1132 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

Forecast is based on request time of 1300 MST on February 14.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
A deep surge of subtropical moisture is moving into the region
with widespread showers expected to develop, especially tonight
into Thursday. An inch or two of rain is possible over the next
couple of days as this system moves through. Snow levels will
remain high with no snow expected at the burn area. Winds will be
the main concern as southwest winds will continue to be breezy to
windy with sustained winds over 15 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible during the next 24-36 hours. Temperatures will be below
normal the next couple of days but return back to above normal by
the weekend into early next week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West-southwest winds 12 to 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......3900-4800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 25 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (113800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      1 PM   3 PM
Sky (%).........86     96
Weather cov.....ISOLD  ISOLD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10     20
LAL.............1      1
Temp............55     54
RH..............29     34
20 ft wind......SW 16  SW 15
20 ft wind gust.30     30
Mix hgt (ft)....4800   4800
Transport wind..SW 25  SW 20
Haines index....2      2
Vent Rate.......VYGD   VYGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Numerous rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 18 mph. Gusts up to 30
                    mph after midnight.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM
Sky (%).........95     95     95     93     93     93
Weather cov.....ISOLD  ISOLD  SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     40     70     70     70
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............52     47     44     42     43     42
RH..............43     60     76     89     86     89
20 ft wind......SW 12  SW 13  SW 15  SW 16  SW 17  SW 17
20 ft wind gust.20     25     25     30     30     30
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Numerous rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 48.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 14 to 17 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......1500-1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 30 to 31 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (33300-46700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      5 AM      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM
Sky (%).........100       100       93        93
Weather cov.....NUMRUS    NUMRUS    NUMRUS    NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).70        70        70        70
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............42        42        47        48
RH..............89        82        71        68
20 FT wind......SW 18G30  SW 18G30  SW 18G30  SW 17G30
Mix hgt (ft)....1500      1500      1700      1700
Transport wind..W 28      W 22      W 24      W 32
Haines index....2         2         2         2
Vent Rate.......POOR      POOR      FAIR      FAIR

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Alamogordo Dispatch Center
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1801925.1/EPZ
.EMAIL nmadc@fs.fed.us



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