Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FNUS74 KEWX 151404
FWSEWX

Spot Forecast for Emma Long RX Burn Picnic Unit...Austin Fire Department
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
804 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 CST on November 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
By ignition time, RH values will be near 70 percent with 70 perent
RH continuing through the afternoon hours before increasing once more
this evening and overnight into the 80-90 percent range. Winds are expected
to stay relatively light and primarily out of the south this afternoon, with
sustained winds of 5-7 mph. Winds will shift to easterly this evening and finally
north/northeasterly shortly after midnight, but should remain light. An occasional
afternoon gust to 15 mph is possible but should be infrequent.
Rain chances are slight but even if some precipitation occurs, amounts should
be only a trace to a few hundredths of an inch. Not a substantial wetting rain
possibility today.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................2 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 5 to 7 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......1600-3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........94  91  86  80  75  74  73  73  75  76
Weather cov.....                SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............64  66  68  71  74  74  76  77  76  75
RH..............100 97  90  81  74  74  69  67  69  71
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   4   4
20 FT wind gust.
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.7 2.1 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.14  15  15  15  15  14  12  10  8   6
Haines index....3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers.
CWR.................6 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......1100-2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 3 to 6 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........78  79  79  80  79  78  77  79  82  84  83  83
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............72  71  70  69  68  67  67  67  67  66  65  64
RH..............79  81  81  84  87  93  93  90  87  87  90  93
20 FT wind dir..SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   N   N   N   NE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   3
20 FT wind gust.
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   N   N   N   NE
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.
Mix hgt (kft)...2.9 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1
Transp wind dir.S   SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.5   3   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   6   6
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...27
Requested by...Mark Stinson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1718853.0/EWX
.EMAIL mark.stinson@austintexas.gov



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