Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FNUS74 KEWX 222237
FWSEWX

Spot Forecast for Burnet County Fire off Skyline Drive...Texas A&M Forest Service
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
537 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1800 CDT on September 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Very isolated showers are expected to continue to move in from the
southeast over the next few hours before dissipating for the rest
of the evening. Brief southeast wind gusts up to 25 mph may be
possible with this shower activity, but winds otherwise will be more
southerly at 10-15 mph. Relative humidity values should generally keep
additional fire weather concerns low as values currently around 50
percent will increase through the evening hours towards 100 percent
before decreasing back to around 50 percent tomorrow afternoon. Very
isolated showers and possibly a rogue thunderstorm will be possible
again tomorrow afternoon into the early evening hours. Rain chances
increase further next week as a slow moving front approaches.


.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1900, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 68.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 6 to 9 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......3400-4600 ft AGL decreasing to 700-2400 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 20 mph decreasing to around 10 mph
                    late in the night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........51  47  38  29  20  25  31  36  38  40  41  47
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............89  86  83  80  77  76  74  73  73  72  71  69
RH..............48  53  59  67  74  76  84  87  87  90  93  100
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   9   8   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  11  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.6   7   6   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.8   8   8       5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.6 4.0 3.4 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.20  20  20  18  17  16  15  14  13  12  10  10
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the late morning
                    and afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0900, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......800-2400 ft AGL increasing to 4200-5500 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........52  58  61  65  68  55  43  30  30  31  31  36
Weather cov.....            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............68  68  69  71  73  76  79  82  84  86  86  85
RH..............100 100 100 97  90  79  69  61  57  51  51  53
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   6   6   7   8   9   10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.                        10  11  12  12  12  12
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   5   6   7   8   8   8   8
Eye lvl wnd gst.                5       8   8   9   9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.6 2.4 4.2 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.9   9   9   10  12  13  14  15  16  17  17  18
Haines index....3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
CWR.................2 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1900, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 6 to 10 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......3500-4800 ft AGL decreasing to 300-1400 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........40  45  41  38  34  32  31  29  35  40  46  51
Weather cov.....SCH
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............84  82  80  78  76  74  73  72  71  71  70  69
RH..............53  56  60  67  74  79  84  87  90  93  97  100
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   SE
20 FT wind spd..10  9   8   8   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.12  11  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.8   7   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.9   8   8   8                       5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.8 4.5 3.5 1.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.18  18  18  17  16  15  15  14  14  14  14  14
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 6 to 10 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......1500-2800 ft AGL increasing to 3800-5400 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........55  60  62  65  67  64  62  59  57  55  53  52
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............69  69  70  71  73  76  78  81  83  84  85  85
RH..............100 100 97  97  90  79  71  63  57  55  53  53
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   7   8   8   8   8   9   9   10  10
20 FT wind gust.                10  10  10  10  11  11  12  12
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   5   6   6   6   6   7   7   8   8
Eye lvl wnd gst.        5       8   8   8   8   8   8   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.8 3.8 4.2 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  13  13  13  13  13  14  15  17  20
Haines index....3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...00
Requested by...Texas A&M Forest Service
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1716157.0/EWX
.EMAIL sbrooks@tfs.tamu.edu



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