Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FNUS74 KFWD 221523
FWSFWD

Spot Forecast for Whitney...USACE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
923 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CST on February 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with small hail,
frequent lightning, and brief very heavy rain will continue off
and on this morning, with a few showers continuing this afternoon
and evening. Several more rounds of showers and storms are
expected Friday and Saturday, as an upper level disturbance lifts
out of the Rockies and across the Southern Plains and Texas. Highs
will struggle into the mid and upper 30s today, but warm back
into the 50s Thursday as a warm front moves north through the
area. A few severe storms are possible on Saturday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain late in the
                    morning. Isolated thunderstorms through the
                    day. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 40.
Min humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 6 mph late in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming northwest 5 to 6
                    mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......900-1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....North winds around 3 mph late in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming northwest around
                    3 mph in the afternoon.

TIME (CST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........99  99  99  99  100 100 100 99
Weather cov.....DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Temp............37  37  38  39  39  40  40  40
RH..............92  96  96  96  96  96  96  100
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  N
20 FT wind spd..6   3   5   5   5   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.    4
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  N
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.9
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW
Transp wind spd.9   8   8   8   9   9   9   8
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    rain showers and isolated thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......600-800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 7 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.

TIME (CST)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........100       97        100       94
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD    ISOLTD    ISOLTD    ISOLTD
Temp............40        41        43        43
RH..............100       96        93        96
20 FT wind......NW 3G4    NW 3      NW 3      N 3
Eye level wind..NW 2      NW 2      NW 2      N 2
Mix hgt (ft)....800       700       600       600
Transport wind..NW 7      NW 7      N 6       N 6
Haines index....2         2         2         2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east around 5 mph early in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......600-700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming east around 3 mph early in
                    the morning.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........100 100 100 100 99  99  98  98  99  99  98  96
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Temp............43  43  43  43  44  45  48  50  52  55  57  59
RH..............86  89  89  93  100 100 100 100 100 100 93  90
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.4   4
Eye lvl wnd dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.6   7   7   8   8   7   7   8   8   9   9   9
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Warmer. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in
the upper 60s. South winds around 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Northwest winds around 6 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
North winds around 5 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Martello
Requested by...Nick Mouthaan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1802369.0/FWD
.EMAIL nicholas.j.mouthaan@usace.army.mil



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