Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FNUS74 KHUN 261247
FWSHUN

SPOT FORECAST FOR FLAT MTN. FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
747 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0700 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST ALABAMA AS OF 0700 CDT WILL
ARRIVE AT THE FIRE LOCATION AROUND 1100-1200 CDT.  20 FOOT WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT THAT POINT WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF
10-17 MPH.  THIS WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BUT ALSO MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.  A
CLEARING SKY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
20 FOOT WILL INCREASE AND BE NORTHERLY ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF
10-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL ALSO BE NORTHERLY AT 8-15 MPH.



.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT BY EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1000...THEN 2 UNTIL 1100...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2200-4100 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    6200-8000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 9300-9900 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 7100 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING WEST 7 TO 14 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............68     75     83     86     85     81
RH..............90     76     61     51     53     60
20 FT WIND DIR..180    230    270    320    340    350
20 FT WIND SPD..3      5      6      6      8      8
20 FT WIND GUST.5             10     10     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....200    1200   4100   8000   9900   7100
TRANSPORT WIND..S 6    S 13   SW 13  SW 9   W 7    NW 9
DISPERSION IDX..3      6      62     76     26     32
LVORI...........5      5      1      1      1      1
CWR.............20     20     30     30     30     30
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     30     30     30     30
LAL.............1      1      3      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................30 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1900...THEN 2 UNTIL 0100...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 700-1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
TEMP............78     73     68     66     64     61
RH..............64     71     78     78     78     84
20 FT WIND DIR..000    000    000    010    010    000
20 FT WIND SPD..8      6      6      5      5      5
20 FT WIND GUST.15     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....4000   800    1000   1000   1200   1400
TRANSPORT WIND..N 13   N 15   N 12   N 12   N 13   N 14
DISPERSION IDX..35     8      13     8      8      9
LVORI...........1      3      4      4      4      5
CWR.............30     20     20     20     10     10
CHC OF PCPN (%).30     20     20     20     10     10
LAL.............3      2      2      2      1      1

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800-4200 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 14 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............59     61     67     76     80     79
RH..............87     78     61     42     34     32
20 FT WIND DIR..010    010    020    000    350    340
20 FT WIND SPD..5      6      8      7      7      8
20 FT WIND GUST.       10     15     10     10     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1300   1500   2200   3400   4200   3900
TRANSPORT WIND..N 14   N 12   N 10   N 8    N 9    N 13
DISPERSION IDX..6      5      7      34     46     46
CWR.............10     0      0      0      10     10
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     0      0      0      10     10

$$
FORECASTER...KULA
REQUESTED BY...CLARK
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1600988.4/HUN
.EMAIL KERRYCLARK@FS.FED.US



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