Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
027
FNUS74 KHUN 241044
FWSHUN

Spot Forecast for Mill creek/Grindstone...USFS
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
544 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on March 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

One more dry day is expected for the region, before a system
nearing from the west brings shower and thunderstorm chances
for the weekend and much of next week. At the burn site, high
temperatures today under mostly cloudy skies should warm to
around 74, with minimum relative humidity values this afternoon
around 51 percent. Generally good to good smoke dispersion
rates are forecast today, with surface in the 10 mph range and
some gusts to 20 mph. Transport winds will range in the 22-26
mph range with mixing heights around 4000 feet above ground
level this afternoon.

The above noted system will start bringing slight chances of
showers and thunderstorms across the burn area towards daybreak
Saturday. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
during Saturday afternoon/evening, as the system moves across
the region. Some of the storms, especially across portions of
western Alabama could become strong to severe, with strong to
damaging wind gusts the primary threat. Near breezy conditions
are expected, with southerly winds of 10 mph, gusting at times
to 20 mph. Transport winds will increase to the 20-30 mph range,
at times higher, resulting in good smoke dispersion rates.
Rainfall totals into late Saturday afternoon around the burn
area should range from one half of an inch to one inch.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    early in the morning.
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......1500-3400 ft AGL...increasing to 3800-4200 ft
                    AGL early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 22 to 26 mph.
LVORI...............2.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............63  66  68  70  72  73  74  74  73
RH..............67  61  59  55  53  53  51  51  53
20 FT WIND DIR..160 160 160 170 170 170 170 170 170
20 FT WIND SPD..8   8   8   8   8   8   8   9   8
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.160 170 170 180 180 180 180 180 180
TRANSP WIND SPD.25  26  26  26  25  24  23  23  24
DISPERSION IDX..34  36  58  63  64  65  64  65  68
LVORI...........3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
CHC OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 9 mph.
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......2500-3900 ft AGL...decreasing to 900-1600 ft
                    AGL in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 24 mph...decreasing to 14 to 16 mph
                    late.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............72  71  68  67  65  64  63  63  62  61  60  60
RH..............53  55  61  61  65  67  72  72  72  75  75  75
20 FT WIND DIR..160 160 160 160 160 160 170 170 170 170 170 170
20 FT WIND SPD..8   8   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   9   9   9
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.9 3.4 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.170 170 160 160 160 160 170 170 170 170 170 170
TRANSP WIND SPD.24  24  22  18  16  18  21  23  21  16  14  16
DISPERSION IDX..66  62  48  31  19  21  19  26  23  14  12  14
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10
CHC OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning.
                    Showers and thunderstorms in the late morning
                    and afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
CWR.................10 percent...increasing to 80 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0700...then 3 until 1000...then 4 until
                    1300...then 5.
Mixing height.......1400-2900 ft AGL...increasing to 3600-5100 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 29 mph...increasing to 31 to 33 mph
                    in the afternoon...then decreasing to around 23
                    mph late.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
WEATHER COV.....    CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............59  59  60  63  65  66  68  69  70  71  71  70
RH..............78  78  75  67  65  65  63  63  63  63  63  66
20 FT WIND DIR..170 160 160 160 160 170 170 170 170 180 180 170
20 FT WIND SPD..9   9   9   10  10  10  12  12  12  10  10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.9 3.6 4.4 5.0 5.1 3.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.170 170 170 170 170 170 180 180 180 180 190 180
TRANSP WIND SPD.20  23  23  23  23  25  29  31  33  33  31  23
DISPERSION IDX..22  26  26  26  26  52  68  81  97  102 96  63
LVORI...........4   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
CWR.............10  50  50  50  60  60  60  80  80  80  80  80
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  50  50  50  60  60  60  80  80  80  80  80
LAL.............1   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5

$$
Forecaster...Boyd
Requested by...Kerry
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705109.0/HUN
.EMAIL Kerryclark@fs.fed.us



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.