Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS72 KILM 231146
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for SALA Burn 16 20 21...Jones Lake State Park
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
646 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EST on February 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Low pressure over Florida will maintain an easterly wind across
the area today. Plenty of clouds around early this morning will
thin out as the day progresses. Unseasonably warm temperatures
today will continue into Friday and Saturday with very little
chance of rain.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is favorable.

Fog potential for tonight...moderate.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds early...becoming southeast 5
                    to 7 mph.
Max Mixing Hgt......6600 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph...increasing to 9 to 12
                    mph early in the afternoon.
Max Vent Rate.......75670 mph-ft.

TIME (EST)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........86  78  71  63  56  49  42  42  41  41  39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............52  55  61  66  70  73  75  76  77  77  75
RH..............99  89  75  64  58  54  51  48  47  48  52
CHC Pcpn (%)....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   4   4   5   5   5   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.        5   5   5           10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.5 4.5 5.4 6.1 6.6 6.4 5.4
Trans Wnd Dir...NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Trans Wnd Spd...3   5   7   9   10  10  10  12  12  12  9
VR MPH-FT*1000..1   4   11  23  36  47  56  71  76  74  49

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Areas of fog
                    late.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light and variable.
Min Mixing Hgt......200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast 3 to 7 mph.
Min Vent Rate.......804 mph-ft.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........36     28     16     22     28     35
Weather cov.....                                   AREAS
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   FOG
Tstm cov........
Temp............72     65     61     58     56     55
RH..............59     76     89     95     97     100
CHC Pcpn (%)....0      0      0      0      0      0
20 ft wind......SE 5   SE 4   E 3    E 2    E 2    E 2
20 ft wind gust.10     5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....3800   300    300    200    300    300
Transport wind..SE 7   SE 3   E 3    E 3    E 3    NE 3
VR MPH-FT*1000..26     1      1      1      1      1

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Areas of fog
                    early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming southeast
                    around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Max Mixing Hgt......7000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 2 to 5 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......22195 mph-ft.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........30     28     27     29     33     39
Weather cov.....AREAS
Weather type....FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............53     58     67     74     79     79
RH..............100    91     72     56     46     45
CHC Pcpn (%)....0      0      0      0      0      0
20 ft wind......NE 2   NE 2   E 4    E 5    SE 5   SE 5
20 ft wind gust.              5             10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....300    600    2200   4900   6800   6400
Transport wind..NE 3   E 3    E 5    E 3    SE 2   E 3
VR MPH-FT*1000..1      2      10     17     16     22

$$
Forecaster...Armstrong
Requested by...John Privette
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702679.0/ILM
.EMAIL john.privette@ncparks.gov



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