Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FNUS72 KJAX 212123
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR EVANS GRADE...FHP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
423 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1625 EST ON NOVEMBER 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF OUR AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 15 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND STRENGTHEN TO
15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON
SUNDAY... AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES. A FEW STRONG STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS LATE IN THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL EARLY...DECREASING TO 700 FEET
                    OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 17 TO 23 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....30 EARLY...DECREASING TO 20 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........28     31     36     41     46     52
WEATHER COV.....                                   S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
TEMP............66     64     63     62     62     61
RH..............62     69     75     86     93     96
20 FT WIND......N  15  NE 15  NE 14  NE 15  NE 14  NE 13
20 FT WIND GUST.25     25     20     25     20     20
MIX HGT (FT)....2400   1400   1100   800    700    700
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 22  NE 23  E 23   E 22   E 21   E 18
LVORI...........2      3      3      4      5      5
DISPERSION INDX.30     24     22     21     20     20
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      10     10     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING...INCREASING
                    TO 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING....INCREASING TO
                    3300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 17 TO 26 MPH...INCREASING TO 28 TO 29 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....20 EARLY...INCREASING TO 70 IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........54     57     62     65     70     77
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............61     62     69     73     74     74
RH..............100    100    86     70     65     66
20 FT WIND......E 12   E 13   E 16   E 17   E 17   E 16
20 FT WIND GUST.       15     25     25     25     25
MIX HGT (FT)....700    1100   1900   2600   3100   3300
TRANSPORT WIND..E 17   E 20   E 26   E 28   E 28   E 29
LVORI...........5      4      4      2      1      1
DISPERSION INDX.20     30     50     63     69     70
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     20     20     20     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

$$
FORECASTER...NELSON
REQUESTED BY...JAX FHP SUPERVISOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141121.EVANS.02/JAX






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