Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FNUS74 KLCH 241520
FWSLCH

SPOT FORECAST FOR CANVASBACK FIRE...US FISH & WILDLIFE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1020 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FRIDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOWERING CHANCES OF RAIN AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT.

.SPECIAL REMARKS...
FOG...
WE ARE EXPECTING SOME RAINFALL IN THE SPOT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE STABLE...AND EXPECTED
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
BELOW 1 MILE DURING THAT TIME FRAME. MOST LIKELY...ABOVE 60 PERCENT
CHANCE...OF PATCHY...SHALLOW FOG...WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 3 MILES.
WHAT FOG DOES DEVELOP...SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9 AM.

RECENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY...
ACCORDING TO OUR LIGHTNING DATA FROM THE AWIPS...THERE WERE AT-LEAST
360 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE SPOT LOCATION
WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. MOST OF THOSE STRIKES OCCURRED BETWEEN 10 PM
AND 1 AM.

FUTURE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FROM UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA AND MESOSCALE MODELS...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE
PLACE AFTER 1 PM...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM. MOST LIKELY
9-16 LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN 25 MILES OF THE SPOT DURING AN HOUR CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE TYPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING
                    LIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-5100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400-6100 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 3 TO 5 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING
                    LIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........53  56  59  59  56  53  52  53
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM
TEMP............82  85  87  87  87  88  88  87
RH..............79  74  65  61  61  61  61  63
20 FT WIND DIR..N   NW  NW  W   SW  S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..6   5   3   2   2   2   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.10      5               5   5
EYE LVL WND DIR.N   NW  NW  W   SW  S   S   S
EYE LVL WND SPD.5   4   3   2   2   2   2   3
EYE LVL WND GST.10  5   5               5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.1 5.7 6.1 6.1 5.7 5.0 4.8 5.2
MIX HGT (KM)....1.6 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
TRANS SPD (M/S).1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
LAL.............1   1   1   1   2   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 2 TO 3 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........53     54     53     52     50     48
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE   NONE
TEMP............86     85     80     79     80     80
RH..............63     67     82     85     82     85
20 FT WIND......S 3    S 5    S 6    SW 6   SW 6   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5             10     10     10
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 3    S 4    S 5    SW 5   SW 5   SW 4
EYE LEVEL WIND..5      5      10     10     10     5
MIX HGT (FT)....5200   5100   4200   4000   4200   4200
MIX HGT (M).....1580   1550   1280   1220   1280   1280
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 3   SW 3   SW 3   S 3    S 3    SW 2
TRAN WIND (M/S).SW 3   SW 3   SW 3   S 3    S 3    SW 2
HAINES INDEX....2      2      2      2      2      2
LAL.............2      1      1      1      1      1

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900-5600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5900-6400 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 2 TO 8 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........47        45        44        41
WEATHER COV.....          S CHC     S CHC     S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      TSTORM    TSTORM    TSTORM
TEMP............78        84        91        91
RH..............88        72        56        56
20 FT WIND......W 5       W 5       SW 6G10   SW 8G10
EYE LEVEL WIND..W 4G5     W 4G5     SW 5G10   SW 6G10
MIX HGT (FT)....3900      5000      6400      6300
MIX HGT (M).....1190      1520      1950      1920
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 2      SW 2      S 2       S 6
TRAN WIND (M/S).SW 2      SW 2      S 2       S 6
HAINES INDEX....2         2         2         2

$$
FORECASTER...RUA
REQUESTED BY...JAMIE FARMER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140724.CANVA.01/LCH





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