Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FNUS74 KLIX 291922
FWSLIX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BAYOU SAUVAGE-OLD RIVER FIRE...U.S. FWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
222 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

1. WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT FOG AS THE FIRE IS CLOSE TO I-10. PLEASE
LET US KNOW THE PROBABILITY OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.

THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM.
FOG WILL BE LIGHT.

2. WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT LIGHTNING. WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF
LIGHTNING EVENTS AND ARE THEY ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN EVENTS

THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL BE SLIGHT...AROUND 30 PERCENT...THROUGH
8 PM AND DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AFTER 4 AM. IN BOTH TIMES...LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITH RAIN.

3. WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT PREDOMINANT WIND DIRECTION. PLEASE PROVIDE
WIND DIRECTION IN FORECAST.

WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN OUT OF WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.REST OF TODAY...
TIME (CDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........70  68  66  67
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM
TEMP............88  88  88  88
RH..............63  61  61  61
DEWPOINT........73  73  73  73
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..8   7   7   6
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15
EYE LVL WND DIR.W   W   W   W
EYE LVL WND SPD.8   7   7   6
EYE LVL WND GST.15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5
MIX HGT (KM)....2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.W   WSW WSW WSW
TRANSP WIND SPD.14  15  15  15
TRANS SPD (M/S).6   7   7   7
DISPERSION......47  51  51  51
LVORI...........1   1   1   1
CHC OF PCPN (%).40  40  40  40

.TONIGHT...
TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........67  68  67  64  61  59  55  52  52  52  52  54
WEATHER COV.....CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM
TEMP............88  87  86  84  83  82  82  81  81  80  80  79
RH..............61  65  68  72  74  77  77  82  82  85  85  88
DEWPOINT........73  74  74  74  74  74  74  75  75  75  75  75
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   W   WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   5   5   5   5   6   6   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  10  10  10  10  15  15  10  10  10  10
EYE LVL WND DIR.W   W   W   W   WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW
EYE LVL WND SPD.6   6   5   5   5   5   6   6   5   5   5   5
EYE LVL WND GST.15  15  10  10  10  10  15  15  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
MIX HGT (KM)....2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW
TRANSP WIND SPD.15  14  14  14  15  15  15  16  16  16  15  15
TRANS SPD (M/S).7   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
DISPERSION......51  47  64  64  49  49  20  18  18  18  17  17
LVORI...........1   1   2   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
CHC OF PCPN (%).40  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20

.TUESDAY...
TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........57  61  57  56  55  55  55  56  55  55  54  56
WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM
TEMP............79  79  81  83  84  86  87  88  89  89  90  90
RH..............88  88  82  77  74  68  65  61  59  59  58  58
DEWPOINT........75  75  75  75  75  74  74  73  73  73  73  73
20 FT WIND DIR..WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
EYE LVL WND DIR.WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW
EYE LVL WND SPD.5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
EYE LVL WND GST.10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 2.6 2.6 2.6 5.8 5.8 5.8 4.2 4.2
MIX HGT (KM)....0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.WSW WSW WSW WSW W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.15  12  12  12  10  10  10  7   7   7   17  17
TRANS SPD (M/S).7   5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   8   8
DISPERSION......17  13  13  13  14  23  23  22  22  22  49  49
LVORI...........5   5   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   1   1
CHC OF PCPN (%).20  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND
80. HIGHS AROUND 90. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
.THURSDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 80. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
.FRIDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 80. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS LEROUGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150629.BAYOU.01/LIX



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