National Weather Service Text Product Display

Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
000
FNUS71 KLWX 161228
FWSLWX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHENANDOAH RIVER STATE PARK...DCR-STATEPARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
828 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1145 EDT ON MAY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC EVEN THOUGH A
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    MORNING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
                    MORNING...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2900-4800 FT
                    AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN
                    DECREASING TO 2400 FT AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 21 MPH...INCREASING TO 23 TO 24 MPH
                    LATE.
WAVE HEIGHT.........0 FEET.

TIME (EDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........85     87     93     92
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............77     79     80     80
RH..............54     52     52     52
20 FT WIND......W 6    W 5    W 5    W 6
20 FT WIND GUST.7      7      7      7
CWR.............30     30     50     50

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
                    PATCHY FOG LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................40 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 TO 22 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 2 TO 10
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WAVE HEIGHT.........0 FEET.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........92     91     91     90     90     76
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............78     73     68     66     64     62
RH..............54     64     76     81     84     84
20 FT WIND......W 5    W 4    W 3    W 3    W 2    NW 2
20 FT WIND GUST.7             4      4      4      4
CWR.............40     40     40     10     10     10

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3500-5400 FT
                    AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 2 TO 5
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WAVE HEIGHT.........0 FEET.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........57     43     45     48     50     58
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY                      CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............62     66     72     76     79     80
RH..............87     70     57     50     47     45
20 FT WIND......N 2    NE 3   NE 3   E 2    SE 2   S 2
20 FT WIND GUST.4      4      4      4      4      4
CWR.............10     10     10     10     30     30

$$
FORECASTER...WIDELSKI
REQUESTED BY...AL CIRE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130516.SHENA.02/LWX
National Weather Service National Headquarters
