Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 191116
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Cove Creek...USFS JWF RD
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
516 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CST on February 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...An upper level trough will move eastward over the
mid south, and will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms
for Monday.

.TODAY...

Temperature.........50 at ignition...Max 75.
RH..................96 percent at ignition...Min 54 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Southeast 3 to 8 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds southeast at 4 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming
                    southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog in the
                    morning.
Dispersion..........9 increasing to 19 in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 3400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4330 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY
Weather type....FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG
Tstm cov........
Temp............50  50  51  55  60  65  69  72  74  75  75  74
RH..............96  96  96  100 87  73  66  59  57  55  54  55
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.3   3   3   3   5   6   8   8   8   8   8   6
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 60.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 8 mph.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after midnight.
Dispersion..........4 early in the evening.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds around 5 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 3600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4458 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............72  69  68  66  65  65  64  63  62  62  61  61
RH..............57  63  68  73  75  73  75  81  84  87  90  90
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.6   6   6   8   8   8   8   6   6   6   6   6
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  50  50  50  50  50  50

.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...

Temperature.........Max 71.
RH..................Min 68 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 9 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Showers likely and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms.
Dispersion..........15 increasing to 17 early in the afternoon,
                    then decreasing to 10 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 3200 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4119 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............60  60  60  62  65  67  68  70  70  71  71  70
RH..............93  96  96  93  84  81  78  73  76  73  71  68
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  S
Transp wind spd.6   8   8   8   8   9   9   9   9   8   6   5
Chc of pcpn (%).60  60  60  60  60  60  70  70  70  70  70  70

$$
Forecaster...55
Requested by...Derrick Orrell
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702430.0/LZK
.EMAIL dorrell@fs.fed.us



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