Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FNUS74 KMEG 241117
FWSMEG

Spot Forecast for Burn Block 55 Day 3...USDA FOREST SERVICE
National Weather Service Memphis TN
517 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CST on February 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Southwest 20 foot winds will increase to 10-12 mph by mid-morning,
with gusts around 18 mph. Temperatures will again be well above
normal, with a high near 80 degrees. This will result in a minimum
relative humidity near 40%. A few thunderstorms are possible this
evening, but any storms that develop should be brief. A cold front
will move across the area between 6-9 PM, shifting winds from the
west. Drier and much cooler air will move into the area overnight
and on Saturday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 20 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Dewpoint............55.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1500 ft AGL increasing to 4100-4900 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...91-457 meters AGL increasing to 1250-1494
                    meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 18 mph shifting to the southwest 21
                    to 24 mph late in the morning.
Transport winds m/s.South 4 to 8 meters/second shifting to the
                    southwest 9 to 11 meters/second late in the
                    morning.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........33  34  35  36  36  37  39  44  50  56  62  68
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............59  59  62  65  69  72  75  77  78  79  79  76
Dewpoint........55  55  56  56  56  55  55  54  54  54  54  55
RH..............87  87  81  73  63  55  50  45  43  42  42  48
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   8   9   10  12  12  12  12  12  10  8   7
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.4 4.1 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.1
Mix hgt (km)....0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.10  12  13  15  18  22  24  24  23  22  21  21
Trans wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Trans spd (m/s).4   5   6   7   8   10  11  11  10  10  9   9

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................30 percent decreasing to 10 percent after
                    midnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Dewpoint............54 decreasing to 31.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......2300-3500 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...701-1067 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 18 to 22 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Northwest 8 to 10 meters/second.
Rainfall amount.....0.04 inches.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........73  65  56  47  38  29  20  20  19  19  18  18
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............30  30  30  30  30  30  10  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  30  30  30  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............69  64  60  57  54  52  49  48  46  45  44  42
Dewpoint........56  55  53  52  47  43  38  36  34  33  31  29
RH..............63  73  78  83  77  71  66  63  63  62  60  60
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   8   8   9   9   9   9   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3
Mix hgt (km)....1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.20  18  18  18  20  21  22  22  22  22  22  21
Trans wind dir..SW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Trans spd (m/s).9   8   8   8   9   9   10  10  10  10  10  9

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Dewpoint............25 decreasing to 22 early in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......2400-4100 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...732-1250 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 20 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Northwest 5 to 9 meters/second.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (CST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........17        12        5         6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............40        43        49        51
Dewpoint........27        24        23        22
RH..............59        47        36        32
20 FT wind......NW 8G15   NW 8G15   NW 7G15   NW 8G15
Mix hgt (ft)....2400      2800      3600      4100
Mix hgt (m).....730       850       1100      1250
Transport wind..NW 20     NW 15     NW 12     NW 13
Tran wind (m/s).NW 9      NW 7      NW 5      NW 6

$$

Forecaster...Johnson
Requested by...Jim Walden
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702769.0/MEG



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