Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FNUS72 KMHX 202001
FWSMHX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUNSIDE FIRE...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
401 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1553 EDT ON MAY 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A STALLED FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ON THURSDAY
AND PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.

WE ARE EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FIRE SITE LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD
PRODUCE AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. THE STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MAX HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............13     7      10     14     17     28
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................70     66     64     64     65     64
RH..................63     70     73     70     70     75
20 FT WIND..........NE 9   NE 8   NE 7   E 6    E 6    E 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     15     15     15     15
LVORI...............2      3      3      3      3      4
ADI.................28     11     9      9      9      9
HAINES INDEX........4      3      3      3      2      2

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 25 TO
                    30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............42     52     63     77     87     85
WEATHER COV.........       CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............       CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
TEMP................65     67     71     76     80     81
RH..................75     75     68     62     62     60
20 FT WIND..........E 7    E 7    SE 9   SE 10  SE 11  S 11
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     15     20     20     20
LVORI...............3      3      1      1      1      1
ADI.................16     31     46     65     81     60
HAINES INDEX........2      2      3      3      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...ELARDO
REQUESTED BY...HELEN CZERNIK
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150520.SOUNS.01/MHX


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