Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FNUS72 KMLB 221329
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Reedy Creek...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
929 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on June 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...southeast winds of 10 to 15 mph can be expected over the
burn site through the afternoon. A shower or thunderstorm may move across
the burn site today, especially during the mid to late afternoon hours.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1200, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2200-4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
Dispersion index....31 increasing to 55.
LVORI...............3 decreasing to 1 late in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........70  50  50  50  55  55  55  56
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
LAL.............1   2   2   2   3   3   3   3
Temp............84  87  88  89  90  91  90  90
RH..............74  68  63  61  60  56  58  56
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..8   9   9   10  10  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.10  12  12  12  12  13  15  15
Dispersion idx..31  43  42  43  46  48  55  55
LVORI...........3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2000, then 1-8 strikes until
                    2300, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......1000-2900 ft AGL decreasing to 300-800 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 13 mph decreasing to 2 to 3 mph
                    early in the morning.
Dispersion index....41 decreasing to 2.
LVORI...............2 increasing to 7.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........56     35     35     35     37     37
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30     20     20     20     20     20
LAL.............3      2      2      1      1      1
Temp............88     84     81     79     77     76
RH..............59     67     77     85     90     90
20 ft wind......SE 10  E 7    SE 7   SE 6   SE 5   SE 6
20 ft wind gust.15
Mix hgt (ft)....2900   1200   800    500    300    300
Transport wind..SE 13  E 8    E 7    SE 6   SE 5   SE 2
Dispersion idx..41     3      3      3      2      1
LVORI...........1      3      4      5      7      7

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph becoming southeast
                    6 to 9 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-2400 ft AGL increasing to 3000-4800 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 15 mph.
Dispersion index....4 increasing to 50.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........33        35        35        41
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20        10        10        10
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............76        81        88        91
RH..............90        79        57        47
20 FT wind......SE 6      SE 7      SE 8G10   SE 9G10
Mix hgt (ft)....600       1800      3400      4400
Transport wind..SE 6      SE 14     SE 10     SE 9
Dispersion idx..3         32        43        48
LVORI...........6         3         1         1

$$
Forecaster...Glitto
Requested by...Adam Peterson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1711423.0/MLB
.EMAIL apeterson@tnc.org



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