Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FNUS73 KOAX 160941
FWSOAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR WINNEBAGO GROUP 2...BIA, WINNEBAGO AGENCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
441 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON APRIL 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP QUICKLY THIS MORNING...TO AS LOW AS 25
PERCENT...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM NEARLY DUE SOUTH THIS EARLY THIS MORNING...TO SOUTHWEST LATE
MORNING...AND THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 2 TO 3 PM.
THE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH...BUT THEN
QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT AND CONTINUE GUSTY
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-5000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30 TO 38 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM
SKY (%).........78     82     91     75     77     78
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............55     58     51     42     38     36
RH..............31     33     48     62     67     69
20 FT WIND......SW 21  W 23   W 25   NW 25  NW 22  NW 18
20 FT WIND GUST.30     30     35     35     30     30
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      3      3      2

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 28.
MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 35 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 12 TO 14
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-1300 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 31 TO 40 MPH DECREASING TO 20 TO 28
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND
                    5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-2800 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 2
                    TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...NWS OMAHA/VALLEY
REQUESTED BY...DUWAYNE TRAVERSIE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140416.WINNE.02/OAX



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