Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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513
FNUS73 KPAH 061509
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG SPRING CABINS DAY 2...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
909 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CST ON FEBRUARY 06.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........48 AT IGNITION...MAX 56.
RH..................37 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 3 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11500-12700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH.

TIME (CST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........43  31  24  20  17  15  13
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............48  53  55  55  56  54  52
RH..............37  30  28  29  28  31  33
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..3   5   6   6   6   6   5
20 FT WIND GUST.5       10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 33.
RH..................MAX 75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9100-10500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1200 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........11  10  10  10  10  10  12  15  19  25  31  37
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............49  47  45  43  42  41  39  38  38  37  36  35
RH..............38  42  46  51  53  55  59  62  63  67  70  74
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 56.
RH..................MIN 33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 28 TO 36 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........42  42  41  41  45  50  54  55  55  55  58  60
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............35  36  39  42  46  50  53  55  56  56  54  52
RH..............75  75  70  65  57  50  44  41  38  37  39  41
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..6   7   8   9   10  12  13  14  15  15  14  12
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  15
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5

$$
FORECASTER...WFO PADUCAH
REQUESTED BY...DAN DREES
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160206.BIGSP.01/PAH



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