Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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533
FNUS73 KPAH 221707
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Johnson County Landfill...Shawnee NF
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1107 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CST on February 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS,
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS
THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Areas of dense
                    fog early in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........67 at ignition...Max 71.
RH..................70 percent at ignition...Min 59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds south at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph late in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 900-2400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 14 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CST)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0
Temp............67     71     70
RH..............70     59     61
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..7      8      7
20 FT wind gust.       10
Mix hgt (ft)....1900   2300   2200
Transp wind dir.S      S      S
Transp wind spd.8      13     13
Haines index....4      4      4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 54.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......100-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 8 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............65     62     60     59     57     55
RH..............73     78     84     83     90     96
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      SW     SW     SW
20 FT wind spd..6      7      7      7      6      5
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (ft)....1600   600    100    200    200    200
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      SW     SW     S
Transp wind spd.8      7      6      7      6      5
Haines index....4      4      5      5      4      4

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 73.
RH..................Min 57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......100-1600 ft AGL increasing to 2900-4600 ft AGL
                    late in the morning, then increasing to
                    3300-4900 ft AGL early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 1700 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 13 mph increasing to 12 to 21 mph
                    late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............54     56     63     70     73     71
RH..............100    96     75     61     57     59
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..3      3      6      8      8      8
20 FT wind gust.5      5             10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....200    100    1600   4000   4900   3300
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.5      7      13     20     21     16
Haines index....3      3      4      4      4      3

$$
Forecaster...TREVINO
Requested by...Nate Hein
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702632.0/PAH
.EMAIL georgewsmith@fs.fed.us



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