Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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878
FNUS72 KRAH 191154
FWSRAH

Spot Forecast for Carvers Creek Sandhills...NC State Parks
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
754 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on July 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact this NWS office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low over will drift across NC through tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms should be less numerous in central
NC today compared to previous days.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light and variable winds this morning...becoming
                    southwest 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......800-2000 ft AGL...increasing to 5000-5700 ft
                    AGL by mid afternoon (peak heating).
Transport winds.....West 3 to 6 mph.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................10...increasing to 23 early in the afternoon.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.
Visibility..........6.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........46  44  45  46  46  47  47  46  45  43
Weather cov.....            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            ISO ISO ISO SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............75  79  82  85  87  89  90  91  91  91
RH..............84  77  72  67  61  57  54  52  50  50
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   3   3   5   5   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.4 2.0 2.9 3.8 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.7
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   NW  W   W
Transp wind spd.3   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6
LVORI...........4   4   4   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............6   6   6   14  14  14  20  20  20  26
Visibility (sm).7   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds around 6 mph becoming light and variable
                    in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......Rapidly falling to 300 ft AGL around one hour prior to
                    sunset.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 7 mph.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................26...decreasing to 5 early in the evening.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.
Visibility..........6.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........42  40  40  39  37  35  33  31  30  29  26  24
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............89  88  85  82  81  79  79  78  77  76  76  75
RH..............56  57  65  72  74  79  79  82  85  87  87  90
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.10  5   5   5   10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.2 2.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   7   6   6   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   6
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   6
ADI.............26  26  5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   4
Visibility (sm).6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms late.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 96.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light and variable winds. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL at sunrise, increasing rapidly late
                    morning and early afternoon to 6400-6700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 6 mph.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................8...increasing to 36.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
Visibility..........6.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........23     27     23     25     37     47
Weather cov.....                                   S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                                   S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10     0      0      0      10     20
Temp............75     78     85     91     94     95
RH..............90     82     65     52     44     43
20 ft wind......SW 4   SW 3   W 3    W 2    SW 2   S 3
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....300    400    2400   4700   5800   6700
Transport wind..SW 6   W 6    W 5    W 2    W 2    W 5
LVORI...........6      3      3      2      2      2
ADI.............4      10     10     12     23     23
Visibility (sm).7      7      7      7      7      6

$$

Forecaster...Vincent
Requested by...Thomas Crate
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1712985.0/RAH
.EMAIL Thomas.crate@ncparks.gov



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