Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 161422
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Difficult creek Nap...Va dcr
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
922 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EST on November 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front will slide through the area this morning bringing
drier air on increasing northwest winds through the afternoon.
Expect the wind shift from west to a more northwesterly direction
to occur by noon with gusts to 20 or perhaps 25 mph for the
remainder of the day. Humidity levels should also quickly decrease
once the front crosses but should stay above 30 percent despite
significant heating. However things should be well mixed beneath
an inversion aloft that will lower somewhat through the day as
cooler air attempts to push east of the Blue Ridge.

High pressure to gradually build in overnight although winds may
stay above 10-15 mph through the early evening before going mainly
light late tonight. This should aid in humidity recovery with
levels quickly rising to above 70 percent late tonight once the
winds diminish.

High pressure should be overhead on Friday resulting in much
lighter winds but lower mixing heights and cooler temperatures.




.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 14 to 20 mph.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................35, increasing to 48 early in the afternoon,
                    then increasing to 58 late, decreasing to 38
                    late.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   1   0   0   0   1   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............55  57  60  61  62  61  57
RH..............62  53  45  42  40  41  45
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..7   8   8   8   8   6   5
20 FT wind gust.15  20  20  20  20  20  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 2.3
Mixng wind dir..W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Mixng wind spd..16  18  20  20  18  16  14
LVORI...........3   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............35  50  45  47  61  55  38
Haines index....4   4   4   4   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the
                    evening, becoming light and variable.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 8 to 12 mph.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................5.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........2      2      4      5      5      2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............53     48     44     41     39     37
RH..............50     58     66     71     76     77
20 ft wind......NW 6   NW 4   NW 3   W 2    W 2    W 2
20 ft wind gust.15     10     5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   300    300    300    300    300
Mixing wind......NW 12  NW 9   NW 9   NW 8   NW 8   NW 8
LVORI...........2      3      4      4      4      4
ADI.............5      4      4      4      4      4
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 2 to 8 mph.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................8.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........9      11     13     14     16     18
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............33     38     46     51     54     55
RH..............87     71     53     43     38     38
20 ft wind......W 2    NW 1   N 3    NW 2   W 2    SW 2
20 ft wind gust.5             5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....300    800    1700   1800   1900   2000
Mixing wind......NW 8   NW 7   W 5    W 3    W 2    SW 3
LVORI...........6      4      2      2      2      2
ADI.............8      7      10     8      6      9
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4

$$
Forecaster...Hudgins
Requested by...Wes paulos
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1718908.0/RNK


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