Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 281936
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

A GLACIAL DAM RELEASE COUPLED WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS IS RESULTING
IN BANKFULL CONDITIONS AT MENDENHALL LAKE NEAR JUNEAU.

LOCAL MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE TAIYA RIVER NEAR SKAGWAY.

OTHERWISE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE
STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INDICATES THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW IS FILLING
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE ARCTIC LOW IS MOVING NORTH AWAY
FROM ALASKA. EXPECT THE GULF LOW TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS ANOTHER
LOW DEVELOPS OVER BRISTOL BAY BY WEDNESDAY. THE BRISTOL BAY LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AKPEN INTO THE GULF BY THURSDAY.

HEAVIEST RAIN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS EXPECTED OVER THE
PANHANDLE... WITH UP TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF
RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP
TO A HALF INCH. RAIN AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH EACH DAY... FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH
THE INTERIOR. UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE PANHANDLE.

...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
PAAP     PORT ALEXANDER       PP RZ :  2.16
LCRA2    LITTLE CHENA RIDGE S PC R2 :  2.04
SIKA2    SITKA CRN            PP RG :  1.79
SDIA2    SOUTH DOUGLAS        PC RZ :  1.78
JTMA2    MT ROBERTS TRAM      PC RZ :  1.73
PASI     SITKA                PP RZ :  1.62
ANXA2    ANNEX CREEK          PP RZ :  1.61 PAYA     YAKUTAT
     PP RZ :  1.47TODAY HAS A LOW NORTH OF THE ALCAN BORDER. HADA2
 HAIDA RAWS           PP RG :  1.41 PAJK     JUNEAU WFO           PP
RZ :  1.38 PAPG     PETERSBURG           PP RZ :  1.33 ZMBA2
ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PC RG :  1.27 SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PC
RG :  1.26 PAJK     JUNEAU WFO           PC RZ :  1.25 KKEA2    KAKE
RAWS            PC RG :  1.22 ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PP RG :
1.21 MCAA2    MONTANA CREEK        PP RG :  1.19 SHLA2    SHELTER
COVE RAWS    PP RG :  1.18 FCCA2    FISH CREEK NEAR CHAT PC RG :
1.10 PAFA     FAIRBANKS AIRPORT    PP RZ :  1.07

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER THE NORTH SLOPE.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

A GRAPHICAL SLIDE SHOW PRESENTATION OF HYDROMET ISSUES IS AVAILABLE
AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PRESENT
$$

KFM


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