Ice Forecast
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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930
FZAK80 PAFC 180001
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
301 PM AKST FRIDAY 17 FEBRUARY 2017

FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY 22 FEBRUARY 2017

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH

SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BEAUFORT AND CHUKCHI SEAS WILL BUILD
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND
PUSH TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA EARLY ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ510-EASTERN U.S. ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL U.S. ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ500-WESTERN U.S. ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-
PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-

ICE COVERED.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY-
PKZ165-PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
PKZ180-KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO ETOLIN STRAIT-
PKZ181-NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
PKZ185-SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING SEA EXTENDS FROM NEAR 56.3N 160.3W
TO 54.4N 158.7W TO 57.8N 162.0W TO 57.3N 162.2W TO 56.9N 164.1W TO
57.6N 168.6W TO 57.8N 169.6W TO 59.8N 174.3W TO 60.7N 174.4W TO
60.9N 175.8W TO 63.7N 176.5W TO 61.5N 179.6W AND CONTINUES IN
RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER. THERE IS ALSO NEW
AND YOUNG SEA ICE WITHIN FALSE PASS.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE BERING SEA...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA ICE PACK THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN ICE EDGE
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 NM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...SOME ICE LOSS
ALONG WITH COMPACTION OF STRIPS OF ICE AHEAD OF THE MAIN ICE PACK IS
TO BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ICE EDGE CONSISTS OF
STRIPS OF FIRST YEAR ICE BEING PULLED OFF THE ICE PACK.

-COOK INLET-
PKZ130-WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
PKZ139-COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
PKZ141-KACHEMAK BAY-

COOK INLET ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE

SYNOPSIS FOR COOK INLET...BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND COOK INLET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AND COOK INLET THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MAIN ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 60.2N 151.5W TO 60.2N 151.4W
TO60.0N 152.0W TO 60.2N 152.4W TO 60.1N 152.6W. THE ICE EDGE IS
MAINLY OPEN WATER. THERE IS ALSO SOME NEW ICE NEAR THE HOMER SPIT IN
KACHEMAK BAY.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR COOK INLET...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT FOR TODAY (FRIDAY). WITH
LIGHT WINDS FORECASTED AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES...ICE
THICKNESS AND COVERAGE NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND SHOULD INCREASE WHILE
SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PIECES OF FIRST YEAR ICE
BROUGHT SOUTH BY THE CURRENTS AND TIDES. THE MAIN ICE EDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTH AROUND 5 NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE NOTE...COOK INLET ICE CHANGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TIDES.

$$



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