Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 261749
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
149 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure northeast of the region will support mainly moderate
to fresh east to southeast winds across the southern Gulf and
moderate southerly winds over the northern Gulf through
Wednesday night. The exception will be fresh to possibly strong
east to northeast winds associated with a thermal trough moving
westward from the Yucatan Peninsula and over the eastern Bay of
Campeche each night. High pressure will build southward over the
Bahamas by Tuesday night. At the same time, low pressure will
move over the southern plains with a cold front over interior
Texas. This pattern will result in a tightening of the pressure
gradient across the western Gulf Tuesday night into Wednesday and
then the central Gulf Wednesday night into Thursday. Expect
fresh to strong southeast winds to develop over the western Gulf
Tuesday night and spread eastward to the central Gulf through
Wednesday night. Forecast models are indicating a cold front will
cross the northern gulf from west to east, reaching the offshore
waters of the northwest Gulf beginning on Wednesday night, then
the north central Gulf by Thursday night. Showers and
thunderstorms will be likely just ahead of the front. Latest
model runs are forecasting the front and associated shower and
thunderstorm activity to remain mainly north of 27N.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

A weak pressure pattern with moderate winds will persist across
the Caribbean through Tuesday as low pressure over the SW N
Atlantic slowly moves north then east away from the region. High
pressure will build across the Bahamas by Tuesday night and
persist there through early Thursday night. This will bring a
slight increase in the trades across the Caribbean, with fresh to
locally strong southeast winds developing across the Gulf of
Honduras.

Fresh easterly winds and northerly swell are maintaining seas of
8 ft north of 15N over the Atlantic forecast zones today. By
tonight, seas are forecast to subside to 6 to 7 ft across this
area and last through the rest of the week.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Latest scatterometer data and satellite imagery places the
center of the low pressure over the SW N Atlantic near 23N68W,
moving north-northwest. An elongated surface trough extends from
near 28N68W, through the low, to near the Mona Passage. The
pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and
the low continues to support a large area of strong to near gale
force winds north of the low, with gale force winds from about
120 nm to 240 nm north of the low center. Numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms are also within a few hundred nm of the
low across the northern semicircle. Seas of 12 to 16 ft are
within about 300 nm north of the low center, with a large area of
8 to 12 ft seas across the Atlantic zones south of 30N, east of
77W, outside of the Bahamas. The forecast philosophy essentially
remains unchanged over the past 24 hours, with the low moving
slowly and generally northward through Monday, before turning
northeast while beginning to accelerate. The low will then exit
the northeastern zones Tuesday morning. The area of strong winds,
gales, and large seas will generally maintain their same
proximity to the low as the low makes its trek across the
northeast zones early this week. Although the low center will be
east of the northeastern zones Tuesday, strong to near gale
winds and seas of 8 to 14 ft will remain north of 25N, east 70W
through at least Tuesday evening. Winds will subside below 25 kt
over the northeast zones by Wednesday morning, with seas of 8 ft
or greater lingering into early Wednesday night.

Meanwhile, high pressure will build across the Bahamas by Tuesday
night and remain centered there through at least Thursday
evening. This will support fair weather across that portion of
the basin through the middle of the week with gentle to moderate
winds.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     Gale Warning today into Mon night.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     Gale Warning today into tonight.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.



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