Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 031740
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND
WW3 MODELS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN GULF. SURFACE OBS INDICATE
15-20 KT WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT E-SE TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WED...THEN MOVE SE OF THE AREA EARLY THU. MODELS SHOW A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THU...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE NW GULF THEN SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THU THROUGH SUN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND
WW3 MODELS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW FROM A HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM ABC ISLANDS
ACROSS THE WINDWARDS INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES MODERATE E-SE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...LIGHT
TO GENTLE E WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TO FRESH
E-NE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SEA HEIGHTS ARE 6-7 FT IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGE WILL SLOW
RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH SAT...WHILE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO SWEEPS E-SE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM
WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU AND WEAKEN FROM EASTERN
CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA FRI...THEN REACH FROM HAITI THROUGH JAMAICA
TO SE NICARAGUA SAT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEAR 20 KT
WINDS SPREADING ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW PORTIONS BEHIND
FRONT THU THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND
WW3 MODELS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PAST
BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC E-SE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF
25N AND MODERATE E WINDS S OF 25N. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. BUOY DATA INDICATES SEAS ARE
GENERALLY 4-5 FT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED
WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE FLA COAST WED TO EXTEND FROM 31N74W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS
THU...FROM 31N68W TO EASTERN CUBA FRI...AND FROM 28N68W TO HAITI
SAT...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FROM 25N65W TO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
SUN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND E OF THE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS S-SW WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-30 KT N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
BUILDING TO 6-8 FT THROUGH FRI. A SECONDARY PUSH OF REINFORCING
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU...AND MAY
CATCH UP WITH THE LEADING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY FRI. MODERATE NW
SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATE FRI AND SAT FOR ONLY MODEST WAVE GROWTH N OF THE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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