Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 201647
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1147 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium to High
confidence.

High pressure prevails across the area. Latest satellite derived
winds and seas along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict
gentle to moderate southerly return flow across the basin. Seas
are in the 1-3 ft range over the southeast Gulf, 2-4 ft over the
northeast Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

A strong cold front is forecast to push across the Gulf waters
during the upcoming weekend. The front will enter the
northwestern Gulf Saturday night, reaching from southeast
Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico by Sunday morning, and from the
Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday evening. A
band of showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the
front. This front will bring a significant increase in winds and
seas across the Gulf waters. Strong to gale force winds are
possible behind the front Sunday through Monday across the
northern and central Gulf, possibly spilling into the southeast
Gulf. A large area of seas building up to 16-19 ft is expected
behind the front. Conditions will gradually improve from west to
east Monday night through Tuesday night as high pressure builds
in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

High pressure prevails north of the forecast waters. Latest
satellite derived winds and seas along with ship, buoy, and CMAN
data depict fresh to locally strong winds just offshore of the
northwest coast of Colombia, gentle to moderate winds over the
remainder of the central Caribbean, gentle winds over the eastern
and western Caribbean, and light to gentle winds over the
tropical north Atlantic waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft off the
coast of Colombia, 4-6 ft over the remainder of the south central
Caribbean, 3-4 ft over the remainder of the Caribbean waters, and
4-5 ft over the tropical north Atlantic waters.

The area of high pressure will weaken over the next couple of
days, which will bring a decrease in trades across the
Caribbean.

During the upcoming weekend, southeast to south winds are
expected to increase across the western Caribbean and the
Yucatan Channel ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of
Mexico. This front is currently forecast to reach the Yucatan
Channel and the northwest Caribbean Sunday night, accompanied by
strong winds and building seas. The front will reach from the
Windward Passage to the eastern coast of Nicaragua Monday night,
with strong southwest winds expected near the Windward Passage
just ahead of the front. Over the tropical north Atlantic
waters, expect mainly gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of
4-6 ft to continue through the period.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

The tail end of a cold front extends across the southeast
portion of the forecast area with high pressure located over the
central Bahamas. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along
with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict gentle to moderate winds
over the far northwest waters with mainly light to gentle winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the northeast
waters, 3-6 ft over the southeast waters, 3-5 ft elsewhere
outside the Bahamas, and 1-2 ft west of the Bahamas.

High pressure over the central Bahamas will shift east this
weekend as a strong cold front approaches the western portion of
the area. Southerly winds will increase to 20-30 kt across the
northwest part of the forecast area on Sunday ahead of the cold
front, increasing to gale force Sunday night. The cold front will
move off the southeast coast of the United States late Sunday
night, with strong to gale force winds spreading eastward both
ahead of and behind the front. Seas will build to 15-18 ft across
a large portion of the forecast waters through early next week.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night.
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE
SANCTUARY...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Mon.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Mon.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon night.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon night.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night.
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon night.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon into Mon night.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster AL. National Hurricane Center.



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