Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 301849
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
247 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED EVEN BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 AND 12Z
NWPS PARAMETERS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST PRES ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE SUPPRESSED
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF...WHILE A TROUGH DROPS SW
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE SE U.S. THE TROUGH IS ACTING UPON
A VERY DEEP MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS RESULTING IN SCATTERED AND
TSTMS THERE. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS
IT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SHIFTING
SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NE GULF.

THE CURRENT RELATIVELY LOW SEA STATE OF 1-2 FT THROUGHOUT IS
FORECAST BY WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW GULF (ZONE 23) WHERE THE
DAILY NOCTURNAL TROUGH THAT MOVES OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MAY
INCREASE SEAS THERE AT NIGHT TO AROUND 5 FT DURING THE PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED EVEN BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 AND 12Z
NWPS PARAMETERS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 1452 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT-B SHOWED A SMALL SWATH OF NE
25-30 KT WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 74W AND
76W. THE SAME ASCAT PASS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY FRESH NE
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-
76W...AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS OF GENTLE TO MODERATE INTENSITY
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LATEST BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA
SHOW SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN 16N BETWEEN 80W-81W. SEAS ELSEWHRE ARE
LOWER...IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 2-3 FT SEAS S OF W OF
85W AND N OF 20N W OF 79W. SEAS ARE 5-6 FT IN THE TROPICAL N
ATLC ZONES.

MAINLY FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH POCKETS OF STRONG NE TRADES NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 72W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI...AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT SUN
NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLC WILL APPROACH 55W EARLY ON SAT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REST
OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH MON...THE EASTERN PART OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AND THE REST OF THE WESTERN LATE TUE AND
WED.

LOOKING AHEAD...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES IN A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED TO THE E OF THE
TROPICAL N ATLC ON TUE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED EVEN BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 AND 12Z
NWPS PARAMETERS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
31.5N76.5W WITH A TRAILING TROUGH TO 28.5N80W. HIGH PRES IS
PRESENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...WEAKER OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. BUOY AND ATLTIMETER REPORTS SHOWS SEAS IN THE 3-
5 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS ARE LOWER...1-2 FT...W OF THE
BAHAMAS. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE NW PORTION NEAR THE LOW WHERE
SEAS ARE 6-9 FT...AND WHERE WINDS ARE S-SW 20-30 KT WITHIN 90 NM
E OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N.

THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS PRACTICALLY UNCHANGED FROM
THE RECENT ONES...THE LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A TROUGH TRAILS SW FROM THE LOW BUT
WILL ALSO LIFTS N OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED
TIGHT GRADIENT E OF THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL RELAXING. THE HIGH
PRESENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WILL REBUILD AS A RIDGE NEAR
28N TONIGHT AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. FRESH
TRADES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
    NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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