Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 091816
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2014

VALID 12Z SUN JUL 13 2014 - 12Z THU JUL 17 2014

ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW
WILL VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A LEAD SYSTEM THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SUN/D4
AND THEN ALLOW ADDITIONAL ENERGY TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LOW AND HEAD TOWARD KODIAK AND THE GULF. THE ECENS MEAN REMAINS
THE BEST GUIDE TO THE FORECAST.

...SOUTHERN/COASTAL AREAS AND THE PANHANDLE...

LITTLE CHANGE FROM 24 HRS AGO... WITH THE PARENT UPPER/SFC LOW
CYCLONICALLY WOBBLING SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. ECMWF
REMAINS NEAR ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN IN CARRYING TRAILING ENERGY OUT OF
THE NORTH PACIFIC TOWARD KODIAK WITH THE FRONT INTO THE GULF BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. QUESTION REMAINS IF THE SECOND LOW WILL GET
WRAPPED INTO THE PARENT LOW... PER THE ECMWF... OR KEEP EAST
ENOUGH TO REMAIN SEPARATE. ONGOING PREFERENCE IS FOR A SHARPER
UPPER PATTERN... AND A MORE COMBINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. PRECIP
SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS... EASTERN KODIAK... WEST
SIDE OF THE COOK INLET... EASTERN KENAI... AND NW PWS.

...INTERIOR TO THE NORTH SLOPE...

BIGGER ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO THE ENSEMBLES NORTH OF ABOUT 65N...
AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN RATHER INSISTENT ON BRINGING ENERGY FROM THE
ARCTIC SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT BY MON/D5 WHILE THE GFS
AND GEFS MEMBERS REMAIN MORE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSH THIS EASTWARD
WELL NORTH OF 70N. THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS MANY EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SIMILAR TO IT.. ONLY A FEW ARE AS STRONG OR STRONGER. WOULD PREFER
A WEAKER SOLUTION... LIKE THE EC MEAN... THAT IS LESS PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS/GEFS DUE TO THE UPSTREAM PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ABSORPTION OF TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI... AS
WELL AS ONGOING CONTINUITY. ENSEMBLES INDICATE A HIGH CHANCE OF AT
LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN NEAR AND JUST WEST OF BETTLES... THOUGH THE
GEFS FOCUS THIS JUST NORTH ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE... IN LINE WITH
ITS MORE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY.


FRACASSO

$$





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