Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 171959
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2017

VALID 12Z SAT JAN 21 2017 - 12Z WED JAN 25 2017

THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS GENERALLY
SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BUT THERE IS SOME
SPREAD IN THE DETAILS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE SAT MORNING WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST TO ALLOW A
RATHER ROBUST CYCLONE TO PROCEED ACROSS OR SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
TO THE GULF OF AK. THE GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS WRAPPED UP
SYSTEM BUT REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE CONSISTENT/SLOWER
ECMWF AND EC MEAN. THIS SPREAD BETWEEN THE TWO GLOBAL MODELS IS
RATHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND WPC FEELS A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO
SOLUTIONS IS BEST AT THE MOMENT. THIS MEANS... TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW AVG THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH GEFS/EC MEANS BEING 1
TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW AVG PER 850MB TEMPS BUT GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MODIFY TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG BY NEXT WED WITH THE
LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE ALEUTIANS AND ENTIRE SOUTHERN COAST TO THE
PANHANDLE WET WITH MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE
STATE.

MUSHER


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