Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 101922
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 14 2016 - 12Z THU FEB 18 2016

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES GENERAL RIDGING
OVER MUCH OF WESTERN CANADA WHILE A PERSISTENT TROUGH ANCHORS THE
GULF OF AK WESTWARD. A CASCADE OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DENT
THIS STOUT RIDGE WITH IT EVENTUALLY REBUILDING OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. MODELS SHOW VARIABILITY WITH THE PRECISE
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE KEY FEATURES. MOST RECENTLY...THE
GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BECOME DEEPER IN TIME
WHILE THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE SYSTEM HAS TRENDED WEAKER/QUICKER.
IT SEEMS LIKE THE 00Z CMC/UKMET HAVE SHOWN MORE SUPPORT TOWARD THE
LATTER FORECAST WHICH RAISES CONFIDENCE IN ITS USE. FOUND IT
DIFFICULT TO UTILIZE ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION GIVEN THE LACK
OF CONSISTENCY IN ANY MODEL. WPC FAVORED A BALANCE OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE RESULTANT
FORECAST LEAVES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN AK WHILE BELOW NORMAL READINGS ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE THE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN COASTS GIVEN AN ACTIVE PRECIPITATION
PATTERN. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION AS A MYRIAD OF SURFACE LOWS TRAVERSE THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.


RUBIN-OSTER

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