Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXCA20 KWBC 021137
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
636 AM EST MON MAR 02 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. AT UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE ALOFT NOW CONFINES TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DOMAIN. AS THE RIDGE HOLDS TO THE WEST...IT IS STEERING A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... WITH AXIS TO QUICKLY MOVE
ACROSS PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THIS
FEATURE IS TO CONFINE TO ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 300 HPA...AND AS A
RESULT EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AT MID LEVELS...PERSISTENT RIDGE IS TO DOMINATE
FLOW THROUGH MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...HELPING SUSTAIN A TRADE WINDS
CAP. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THE GFS SHOWS INVERSION HEIGHT AROUND 650
HPA...BUT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IT DROPS TO 700/750 HPA.

AT LOW LEVELS...EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO PREVAIL...WITH WINDS OF
15-20KT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATER IN THE DAY...AS
A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE 850 HPA WINDS ARE
TO INCREASE TO 25-30KT. THIS SURGE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. PATCHY CLOUD CLUSTERS ARE TO EMBED IN THE EASTERLY
TRADES...FAVORING PERIODS OF LIGHT CONVECTION FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
THESE ARE TO CLUSTER ACROSS THE VI-EASTERN/NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TO GENERALLY LIMIT TO THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

DISCUSSION FROM MARCH 02/00UTC:

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
NONE

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
NANDA...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$




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