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FXUS06 KWBC 032052
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE MARCH 03 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 09 - 13 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST
FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA, A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND WESTERN CANADA, AND A TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND PARTS OF THE U.S. NORTHEAST. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE FORECAST OVER THE REST OF CONUS IN ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS. A SPLIT FLOW
IS FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A RELATIVE TROUGH OVER MEXICO. THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE A HIGH LEVEL OF CERTAINTY ON A TROUGH AND
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE, WHILE GEFS AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW ONLY NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL HEIGHTS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. UNDER THE FORECAST ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS,
THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PANHANDLE AND
THE NORTH SLOPE, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE PACIFIC COAST FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD, AS WELL AS FOR PARTS OF ALASKA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE,
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS AS WELL AS THE GULF COAST AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE REST OF THE CONUS
TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, DOWNSTREAM OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE.


TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 11 - 17 2015

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2
PERIOD ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC IS PREDICTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.
FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD TO THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, AS THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD MOVES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PROGRESS EASTWARD TO BE OVER PRIMARILY
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.

OVERALL, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTEND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, AS ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED TO BE OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH OVER
THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION
WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH CENTERED OFF OF THE PACIFIC
COAST, AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE OHIO RIVER AHEAD OF A
RELATIVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD ARE REDUCED IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WITH NEAR-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.


THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 55% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 15% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY
UNCERTAINTY IN A CHANGING FORECAST CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
TO THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.

FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890212 - 19560311 - 19670304 - 19890217 - 19620223


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890212 - 19890217 - 20060218 - 20020304 - 19670307


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 09 - 13 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    N    B
N TEXAS     B    B     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    N    B     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     N    B     OHIO        N    B     KENTUCKY    N    B
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    N    B
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       N    B
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B
PENN        N    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  N    B
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    N    B
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 11 - 17 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    N    N
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    B
VERMONT     N    B     NEW HAMP    N    B     MAINE       A    B
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B
PENN        N    B     NEW JERSEY  N    B     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    B    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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