Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS06 KWBC 251902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JULY 25 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 04, 2016

TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED
NEAR OR JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST, OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND
ALASKA, WHILE A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS. THE MAIN JET STREAM IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER. RECENT DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN AND INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES FOR SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE JET STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW SPREAD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
TODAY`S 500-HPA BLEND CHART DEPICTS SMALL MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE
CONUS, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS EXPECTED EXCEPT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE LARGEST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER ALASKA EXCEPT FOR
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHERE ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
CONUS. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MONSOONAL FLOW TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE, SOUTH COASTAL ALASKA, AND THE ALEUTIANS.

ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCING PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES. ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORT WAVES MOVING WESTWARD UNDERNEATH THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. SUBSIDENCE TO THE REAR OF THE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE TROUGH OVER ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF
THE STATE, WHILE SUBSIDENCE TO THE REAR OF THE TROUGH ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
15% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF
YESTERDAY`S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND THE TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 02 - 08 2016

THE WEEK-2 500-HPA ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FEATURE A LONG WAVE PATTERN VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. SOME DEAMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING WEEK-2
AND HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ALASKA. A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
STRONG OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. SPREAD REMAINS LOW OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND LOW TO MODERATE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TODAY`S BLEND CHART
INDICATES NEAT TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK-2 ARE NOT
SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROM THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
AS THE FLOW PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY, A WARMER REGIME IS ANTICIPATED FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ADDITION, A DRIER
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A WETTER REGIME EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 10% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY`S
12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, OFFSET BY SMALL MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19810731 - 20050719 - 19550802 - 19960808 - 19990725


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19960807 - 19810801 - 20050719 - 19630716 - 19550801


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 04, 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      N    B     NRN CALIF   N    B
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    N    B
N TEXAS     N    B     S TEXAS     N    N     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    B
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    B     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    N    N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 02 - 08 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      B    B     NRN CALIF   N    B
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    B
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    B
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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