Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS06 KWBC 271931
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 06 2016

AMONG THE AVAILABLE MODELS AGREEMENT IS GOOD, WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES OVER THE
PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A BLOCKING PATTERN NEAR THE ALEUTIANS, THOUGH SOME OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS BREAK DOWN THE BLOCKING PATTERN. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
MODELS DEPICT RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES, TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE GEFS MEAN
SOLUTIONS DEPICT LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE MANUAL BLEND
RETAINS A WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ALEUTIANS, RIDGING OVER WESTERN CONUS,
TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST.

THE BLOCKING PATTERN NEAR THE ALEUTIANS AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL, SOUTHERLY FLOW
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RIDGING OVER THE WEST STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST
COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, DUE TO TROUGHING ALOFT AND SOME NORTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW, ARE FAVORED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGHING SOUTH OF ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, WITH BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVER
THE NORTHWEST PORTION. RIDGING ALONG THE ROCKIES FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. UPSTREAM OF THE MEAN TROUGHING AND A MEAN FRONTAL
POSITION FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10%
OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 04 - 10 2016

THE MODELS EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT, INCLUDING THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A TROUGH NEAR THE ALEUTIANS, RIDGING ALONG THE ROCKIES,
AND A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. THE MANUAL BLEND REFLECTS
THOSE FEATURES. THE GEFS MEANS DEPICT A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOKS, THE
WAVELENGTH IS SHORTENED AND THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A A SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.

THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER ALASKA WITH
PERSISTENT TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. RIDGING OVER THE WEST FAVORS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WESTWARD TO THE WEST COAST. PROBABILITIES ALONG THE WEST COAST ARE LOWER THAN
THE AUTO-BLEND DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC. TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS.

THE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO THE ENCROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
PACIFIC. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHEAST, DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE MEAN 500-HPA TROUGH
AND MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 25% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT OFFSET BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF THE TOOLS.

FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 16

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19590523 - 19820530 - 19910522 - 19990516 - 19780530


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910521 - 19590524 - 19960531 - 19820529 - 19780531


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 06 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    N
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 04 - 10 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      B    B     OKLAHOMA    B    N
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B
ARKANSAS    B    N     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    B
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    N
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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