Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXSA20 KWBC 061337
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
936 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM JUL 06 AT 00UTC): THE 200 HPA ANALYSIS SHOWS
A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 00N 110W...ANCHORING
A BROAD RIDGE TO THE WEST OF 90W AND NORTH OF 50S. A LONG WAVE
TROUGH TO THE EAST EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF CHILE TO CENTRAL
PERU...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY FOCUSING ACROSS SOUTHERN PERU INTO
BOLIVIA. THIS IS PROVIDING SUPPORT TO ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...A NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS BRASIL.

THE 250 HPA JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR WITH ENTRANCE AT
46S 90W...THEN ALONG 39S 71W...44S 61W...48S 50W...EXITING AT 46S
37W. THE NORTHERN POLAR LIES ALONG 32S 120W...40S 110W...A 170KT
MAXIMUM AT 42S 105W...41S 96W...EXITING AT 39S 88W. IT REFORMS AT
32S 46W...ALONG 31S 30W...A 122KT MAXIMUM AT 37S 19W...44S
13W...AND 50S 02W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET LIES ALONG 27S 120W...A
159KT MAXIMUM AT 30S 115W...35S 104W...A 129KT MAXIMUM AT 34S
94W...25S 84W... EXITING AT 14S 78W. THE JET REFORMS AT 15S
70W...ALONG 24S 63W...A 138KT MAXIMUM AT 27S 55W...A 123KT MAXIMUM
AT 26S 41W...EXITING AT 27S 27W.

THE 500 HPA ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH
AXIS OVER THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA WHILE ANCHORING ON A CLOSED HIGH
NEAR 63S 88W. BROAD TROUGH TO THE EAST EXTENDS FROM THE WEDDELL
SEA TO THE SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA. FARTHER NORTH...SHORT
WAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN CHILE TO
NORTHERN/ CENTRAL ARGENTINA...WHILE AN INDUCED RIDGE TO THE EAST
EXTENDS BETWEEN 55W-40W AND TO THE NORTH OF 45S.

AT LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM ANCHORS ON A 1017
HA HIGH AT 63S 82W. NORTH OF THIS RIDGE...A TROUGH ENVELOPS THE
SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA...WHILE ANCHORING ON AN OCCLUDED
990 HPA LOW AT 49S 80W AND A 990 HPA LOW AT 50S 60W. THIS EXTENDS
A FRONT ALONG A 994 HPA LOW AT 50S 54W...48S 53W...47S 56W...A 998
HPA LOW AT 46S 59W...42S 61W...40S 63W...A 1010 HPA LOW AT 38S
66W...MENDOZA ARGENTINA...WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A
POLAR RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC CENTERS ON A 1021 HPA HIGH AT
35S 72W. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ANCHORS ON A
10225 HPA HIGH AT 35S 40W. AN ELONGATED FRONT TO THE NORTH LIES
ALONG A 1010 HPA LOW AT 33S 23W...26S 26W...21S
36W...VITORIA-SOUTHERN MINAS GERAIS...MATO GROSSO DO SUL TO
CENTRAL BOLIVIA.

CHARPENTIER...DMC (CHILE)
ROMERO...DMC (CHILE)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$




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