Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 102029
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 10 2016

SYNOPSIS: A STRONG AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THAT AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EASTWARD, WHILE A LOW-PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE STORM SYSTEMS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY AND LATER PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
MULTIPLE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA.

HAZARDS

HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN, SAT-SUN, FEB 13-FEB 14.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TUE, FEB 16.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, THE
SOUTHEAST, THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE OHIO VALLEY, MON-TUE, FEB 15-FEB 16.

HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE NORTHEAST,
AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, MON-TUE, FEB 15-FEB 16.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, SAT-SUN, FEB 13-FEB 14.

FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, SAT-SUN, FEB 13-FEB 14.

FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE
MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SAT-SUN, FEB 13-FEB 14.

FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SAT-SUN, FEB 13-FEB 14.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THU, FEB 18.

HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, SUN-MON, FEB 14-FEB 15.

HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST, SAT-SUN, FEB
13-FEB 14.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE NORTHEAST, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SOUTHEAST, THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE OHIO VALLEY,
SAT-MON, FEB 13-FEB 15.

SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN U.S. AND PUERTO RICO.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13 - WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 17: AN INTENSE LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT TO SEA FROM NEAR THE NORTHEAST, WHILE STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS, STRONG WINDS (30-40 MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS) ARE LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND.



THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO FUNNEL
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDS. SOME MODEL OUTPUT HAD RECORD BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES EARLIER IN THE
WEEK, WHILE MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS 16-24 DEGREES F BELOW AVERAGE). AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA, WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO EXCEED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON SATURDAY.



ONCE THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE TO THE EAST, A LOW-PRESSURE CENTER IS
FORECAST TO FORM NEAR THE GULF COAST. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOW, BUT SOME MODEL
OUTPUTS INDICATE A VERY LOW THREAT OF ISOLATE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE GULF
COAST. AS THAT LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND EAST, PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND
MID-ATLANTIC, BEFORE MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE UNCERTAIN ON THE PRECIPITATION TYPE, SO THE CURRENT HAZARD DOES
NOT DELINEATE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW FURTHER INLAND. AS OF THE MORNING OF FEB
10, THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WERE FORECAST WEST OF MOST MAJOR, EAST COAST CITIES.
LATEST OUTLOOKS IN THE 4-7 DAY RANGE INDICATE THE HIGHEST ODDS OF 2.5-4 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TO MAINE.



HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO HIGH
WINDS FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BEFORE THE WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.



MULTIPLE STORM SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE WESTERN CONUS. THE FIRST IS
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH A SECOND SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.



HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS TRIGGERED MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
ALONG THE FOLLOWING RIVERS: ALTAMAHA AND SAVANNAH RIVERS IN GEORGIA, CAPE FEAR
RIVER IN NORTH CAROLINA, EDISTO RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA, CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND PEARL RIVER IN MISSISSIPPI.



A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ONSHORE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODS OF INCREASED WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, HAZARDOUS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT FORECAST ACROSS THESE AREAS

FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 18 - WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 24: MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS VARY ON THE STORM TAKING A NORTHERN ROUTE INTO
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, OR DIVING SOUTHWARD TO IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS DO OVERLAP IN GIVING THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE HEAVY PRECIPITATION.



THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH BOTH HAVE THE STORM
OVER THE WEST TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK, BOTH DEVELOP A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY IS STILL TOO HIGH TO
DEPICT A HAZARD, BUT THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.



ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON FEBRUARY 2, THE COVERAGE OF
SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL (D2-D4) DROUGHT ACROSS THE 50 U.S. STATES AND PUERTO RICO
DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM 7.13 PERCENT TO 7.06 PERCENT. SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT IS LIMITED TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. AND PUERTO RICO

FORECASTER: MATTHEW ROSENCRANS

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