Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
000
FXUS21 KWNC 292019
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 29 2015

SYNOPSIS: A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SUBSEQUENT TRACK EAST. A COASTAL LOW MAY
INTENSIFY NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE,
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD, IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON SUNDAY AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE
EAST-CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT TEN DAYS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM EASTERN ALASKA, WHILE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS DURING THE NEXT WEEK.

HAZARDS

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND
MID-ATLANTIC, SUN-MON, FEB 1-2.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA, WED-THU, FEB 4-5.

MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES, SUN-WED, FEB 1-4.

MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND
MID-ATLANTIC, TUE-THU, FEB 3-5.

MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA, WED-THU, FEB
4-5

HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE,
SUN-MON, FEB 1-2.

A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHEAST, FRI, FEB 6.

A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S.,
FRI-SUN, FEB 6-8.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, GREAT
BASIN, CALIFORNIA, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 01 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 05: MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO INTENSIFY BY
MONDAY MORNING NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SINCE THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/TYPES.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE A SWATH OF 0.5-0.75
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION, LIQUID EQUIVALENT, FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EAST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THE RISK OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW (4 INCHES OR MORE) IS
INCREASING FOR THE AREA DESIGNATED AS A HEAVY SNOW HAZARD ON THE MAP. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS THIS WEEKEND FROM LOCAL NWS OFFICES.



A 1040-HPA HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH FROM CANADA AND BRING MUCH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OF 12 DEGREES F OR MORE) TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND THEN SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON FEBRUARY 3 AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK.



THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO MEXICO DURING THE WEEKEND IS
FORECAST BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND CROSS FLORIDA BY MID-WEEK. HEAVY RAIN (1-2 INCHES, ORE MORE)
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FEBRUARY 4 AND 5. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE DESIGNATION OF A
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TRACK MORE TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATER NEXT WEEK.



A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGH WINDS FOR THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST NEAR YAKUTAT ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
-30 DEGREES C ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH SUPPORTS MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THESE AREAS.

FOR FRIDAY FEBRUARY 06 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 12: THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
U.S. AT THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY SHIFTS EAST TO THE EAST COAST DURING WEEK-2.
A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXISTS EARLY IN
WEEK-2 FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CALIFORNIA DURING WEEK-2.



THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, VALID ON JANUARY 27, 2015 INDICATES A
VERY SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2
TO D4) FROM 16.97 TO 16.83 PERCENT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. 40 PERCENT OF
CALIFORNIA REMAINS DESIGNATED IN THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CATEGORY.

FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.