Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS21 KWNC 011702
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT SEPTEMBER 01 2014

SYNOPSIS: MONSOONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
DURING MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE ASSESSMENT PERIOD. A SERIES OF AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHERN ALASKA
LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.

HAZARDS

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, FRI-MON, SEP 5-8.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, THU-SAT, SEP 4-6.

FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL IOWA.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN
GEORGIA, PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CALIFORNIA.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 04 - MONDAY SEPTEMBER 08: MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL (1-2 INCHES IN A
24-HOUR PERIOD) FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRI-MON. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.



A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT, BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY
PRECLUDES THE SPECIFICATION OF A HAZARD SHAPE AT THE CURRENT TIME.



ANTECEDENT RAINFALL LEADS TO POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL IOWA.



A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA ARE FORECAST TO CAUSE HEAVY RAIN (2-3 INCHES IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD) FOR
PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE THU-SAT.

FOR TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 09 - MONDAY SEPTEMBER 15: A BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN
IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS WHILE A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED
ALONG THE GULF COAST. LATE IN THE PERIOD, THE GFS INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF
A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODEL
UNCERTAINTY PREVENTS THE PLACEMENT OF HAZARD AREAS AT THIS TIME.



THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, RELEASED ON AUGUST 28, INDICATES THE
PERCENTAGE OF CONUS IN SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT DECREASING VERY SLIGHTLY
TO 21.55 PERCENT.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

$$



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