Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS21 KWNC 231855
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JULY 23 2014

SYNOPSIS: AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN U.S. A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE NATION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WEAKEN. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEK 2 PERIOD.

HAZARDS

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SAT, JUL 26.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, SAT-SUN, JUL 26-27.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, SAT-SUN, JUL 26-27.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, MON-TUE, JUL 28-29.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, SUN-THU, JUL 27-31.

FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT FOR PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
GREAT BASIN, AND CALIFORNIA.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SATURDAY JULY 26 - WEDNESDAY JULY 30: AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN (1 TO ALMOST 2 INCHES) ARE
FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS SAT-SUN. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, IN COMBINATION WITH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE, IS ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE HEAVY RAIN (1-1.5 INCHES) FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MON-TUE. THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THE
SPECIFICATION OF RELATED HAZARD AREAS AT THIS TIME.



A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS IS FORECAST TO BRING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SAT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES F ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION.



A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES SUN-WED.
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 95-100 DEGREES F. THIS IS OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN SINCE NUMEROUS WILDFIRES ARE BURNING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND IDAHO. SMOKE FROM THESE WILDFIRES IS LIKELY TO REDUCE AIR
QUALITY.



FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE SOURIS RIVER IN NORTH DAKOTA.



AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS
MAINLAND ALASKA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANTICIPATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE SAT-SUN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.



TROPICAL ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE IMPACTS OVER HAWAII.

FOR THURSDAY JULY 31 - WEDNESDAY AUGUST 06: EARLY IN THE PERIOD, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PROLONG MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.



BASED ON THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON JULY 15, THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. DECREASED FROM 25 TO 24 PERCENT
DURING THE PAST WEEK.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

$$



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