Preliminary Forecasts
Issued by NWS

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FXUS02 KWNH 030429
PREEPD

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1128 PM EST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 12Z FRI MAR 06 2015 - 12Z TUE MAR 10 2015

THE WPC MEDIUM-RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A
COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE 18 UTC GFS/GEFS MEAN AND 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN ALONG WITH CONTINUITY. THIS SOLUTION IS OVERALL ON
THE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS
THAT SEEMS WELL SUPPORTED BY UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS
PATTERN OFFERS AVERAGE OR BETTER MID-LARGER SCALE PREDICTABILITY.

THE ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE BENIGN/DRY FOR MUCH
OF THE NATION BY MEDIUM RANGE TIME SCALES. THE WPC SOLUTION DOES
OFFER SOME NRN STREAM SNOWS FRI/SAT CLIPPING THE NWRN US AND
ACROSS N-CENTRAL ROCKY STATES AND ALSO ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE
N-CENTRAL TO NERN US THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS IMPULSES PASS ALOFT
IN A PATTERN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. UNDERNEATH...THE 12 UTC
ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES REBOUND MOISTURE AND PCPN MORE ROBUSTLY
INLAND INTO TX AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/SERN US AND UP
THE COAST THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE.
THE WPC COMPOSITE BLEND THAT ALSO INCLUDES THE 18 UTC GFS/GEFS
MEAN LIMITS MOISTURE/QPF REBOUND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH SRN
STREAM ENERGY INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION...BUT STILL OFFERS QUITE
AN INCREASINGLY WET AND REASONABLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN INTO A
MODESTLY COOLED REGION.

SCHICHTEL

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