Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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FONT12 KNHC 230834
PWSAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
0900 UTC WED JUL 23 2014

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

AVES           34  X   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

DOMINICA       34  X   3( 3)  10(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

MARTINIQUE     34  X   4( 4)   7(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

SAINT LUCIA    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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