Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062017
0900 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

20N 145W       34  2  17(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)

20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA



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