Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 271443
PWSEP2

HURRICANE IGNACIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122015
1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2015

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

15N 145W       34  X  18(18)  61(79)   7(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)
15N 145W       50  X   3( 3)  44(47)   7(54)   2(56)   X(56)   X(56)
15N 145W       64  X   1( 1)  26(27)   7(34)   2(36)   X(36)   X(36)

20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   7(13)   3(16)   X(16)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  20(25)   7(32)   1(33)
15N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)
15N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)  17(40)   4(44)
20N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   2(17)
20N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)

25N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  20(37)   6(43)
20N 151W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   3(16)
20N 151W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)

BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  20(33)   4(37)
BUOY 51004     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   2(13)
BUOY 51004     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)  10(28)
20N 154W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)
20N 154W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

15N 155W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)

HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   9(21)
HILO           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
HILO           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   9(18)
BRADSHAW AAF   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
BRADSHAW AAF   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

18N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)
18N 156W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
18N 156W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)
SOUTH POINT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
SOUTH POINT    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)
21N 156W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
21N 156W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)
KAILUA-KONA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
KAILUA-KONA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)
KAHULUI        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

21N 158W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)

BARKING SANDS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)

KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
KAUNAKAKAI     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)

JOINT BASE PHH 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)

26N 159W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

20N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

25N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

21N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

BUOY 51003     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.