Recreational Report
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
SXUS43 KTOP 201213
RECTOP

MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
713 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING PRECIP AT THE TERMINALS IS LOW SINCE THERE IS
NO GOOD FEATURE TO FOCUS CONVECTION. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS
POINTING TO DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK
FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE SPARKING CONVECTION BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THINK CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE OF A SCATTERED NATURE.
BECAUSE OF THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST VFR WITH ONLY A VCTS AT
THIS TIME. IF A THUNDERSTORM MOVES INTO THE TERMINAL, TEMPORARY IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT
14Z WHEN THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
OUT.

.THIS MORNING...
    SUNRISE:                         639 AM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           8 AM  180/10 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 628 AM):        200FT  207/17 MPH
                                      400FT  211/26 MPH
                                      600FT  217/33 MPH
                                      800FT  221/37 MPH
                                     1000FT  221/39 MPH
                                     1500FT  218/36 MPH
                                     2000FT  215/36 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM):      SURFACE 182/08 MPH
                                       84FT  188/20 MPH
                                      237FT  189/23 MPH
                                      505FT  207/30 MPH
                                      905FT  218/35 MPH
                                     1429FT  224/37 MPH
                                     2069FT  227/34 MPH
                                     2781FT  230/30 MPH
                                     3573FT  236/26 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM):      SURFACE 196/12 MPH
                                       84FT  198/19 MPH
                                      238FT  199/22 MPH
                                      505FT  210/30 MPH
                                      905FT  217/36 MPH
                                     1431FT  222/38 MPH
                                     2067FT  226/35 MPH
                                     2781FT  226/30 MPH
                                     3573FT  228/23 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM):      SURFACE 212/14 MPH
                                       85FT  212/19 MPH
                                      240FT  213/22 MPH
                                      509FT  214/24 MPH
                                      910FT  217/36 MPH
                                     1431FT  222/38 MPH
                                     2067FT  226/35 MPH
                                     2781FT  226/30 MPH
                                     3573FT  228/23 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                8 AM  1527 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:         805 PM
    SURFACE WIND:   5 PM  180/14 MPH
                    7 PM  180/12 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$







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