Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 301404
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/30/15 1404Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1345Z  JS
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LOCATION...S SOUTH CAROLINA/NE FLORIDA/SE GEORGIA...
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ATTN WFOS...CHS...MLB...JAX...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...
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NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT.  APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
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EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES AND MESO-ANALYSIS FOR POTENTIAL LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPING.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, HAVE BEEN
WATCHING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASING JUST ALONG AND OFF THE E CENT-NE
FL COAST WITHIN ANALYZED AXIS OF SOUTHERLY 20-25KT 850MB LLJ AND POCKET
OF MODEST WARM ADVECTION MAINLY AROUND 700MB. MORNING SOUNDING FROM
JACKSONVILLE FL AND EVEN AS FAR N AS CHARLESTON SC ARE SHOWING VERY
MOIST PROFILES WITH MOISTURE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND RATHER
HIGH WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS OF 13,500 TO OVER 14,000FT WITH BLENDED TPW
ANIMATION SHOWING FURTHER EVIDENCE OF THE TROPICAL CONNECTION TO WHAT IS
LEFT OF ERIKA NOW COMBINING WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE IN THE
REGION WHICH WAS POOLED ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALSO OF NOTE FROM
THE SOUNDINGS WAS THE PRESENCE OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WHICH WAS PARTICULARLY SEEN IN THE JACKSONVILLE
SOUNDING WITH THE CURRENT DEVELOPING ACTIVITY ALONG/OFF THE FL EAST
COAST ALIGNING ITSELF VIRTUALLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SFC,
STILL SEEING SIGNS OF THE OLD SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS SE GA
WITH GENERAL COLLOCATED AXIS OF ANALYZED SFC BASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
PRESENT OVER NE FL/SE GA/EXTREME S SC AS WELL.
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OUTLOOK...WITH DAYTIME HEATING TAKING PLACE OVER MUCH OF N-NE FL AND SE
GA, EXPECT INSTABILITY TO EVENTUALLY RISE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY CINH
IN PLACE WITH INSTABILITY POTENTIALLY FURTHER AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF
MID LEVEL DRYING WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
LOCATED OVER SE AL PER WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. EVEN THOUGH MUCH OF
THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY HAS BEEN OFFSHORE AND PARALLELING THE COAST,
TRAJECTORIES SHOULD BRING IT INLAND OVER FAR NE FL/SE GA WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR MORE CONVECTION TO EVENTUALLY FORM EVEN FARTHER INLAND
OVER THIS REGION WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY. SOME TRAINING AND CELL
MERGERS ARE VERY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE AREAL
COVERAGE AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. THE GENERAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH WEAK REFLECTION OF WESTWARD EXTENSION OF OLD SFC BOUNDARY OVER
SE GA/NE FL COULD ALSO ADD TO THE FOCUS. WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE, LOCALIZED RAIN RATES SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 2"-3"/HR RANGE WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3227 8141 3207 8025 2965 7979 2854 8050 2961 8162
3109 8229
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NNNN



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