Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
000
TXUS20 KNES 011838
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MOZ000-KSZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/01/14 1838Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15/13 1815Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...MISSOURI...E KANSAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...ABRFC...
.
EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT`S
HVY RAINFALL...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BIG PICTURE SATELLITE FEATURES FROM
GOES WATER VAPOR TO FOCUS ON FOR THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT STARTING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING TONIGHT WERE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH AND OUT AHEAD HAS HELPED PRODUCE
LIGHT TO MODERATE/OCCASIONAL HEAVY PRECIP IN THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS.
WEAK JET AXIS AS PER LATEST SATELLITE WINDS WERE CENTERED FROM CENTRAL AZ
TO WESTERN KANSAS AND BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO E CENTRAL KANSAS.  SHORT WAVE
OUT AHEAD OF VIGOROUS UTAH SHORT WAVE WAS PUSHING ACROSS SW NEBRASKA/NW
KANSAS AND ANOTHER WEAKER IMPULSE WAS CROSSING NW OKLAHOMA...BOTH SHOULD
HELP FURTHER DESTABILIZE AREAS EAST TOWARD EXISTING BOUNDARIES CENTERED
IN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS FROM THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION.  FOCUS FOR
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT`S HEAVY RAIN MAY BE CLOSE TO EXISTING BOUNDARIES ON
VIS...ONE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TO E CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST TO INTERIOR SE KANSAS.
A LITTLE BIT OF IMAGINATION AND THE TWO BOUNDARIES CAN BE INTERSECTING NOW
IN THE VIC OF E CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE W CENTRAL MISSOURI BORDER AND MAY
BE A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL DEVELOP.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CENTERED FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA (PWAT=2.2") TO
WESTERN MISSOURI.  BEST MOIST TRANSPORT WAS AIMED INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MISSOURI...BUT CLOSE TO ENOUGH TO WESTERN EDGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE WESTERN MISSOURI TO ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION/INTERACTIONS.    LATEST GOES
SOUNDER DATA LOOP WAS SHOWING INCREASING INSTABILITY CENTERED C  TO NE OK
THRU SE KANSAS AND SW MISSOURI AND WOULD EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE.
AREA ALSO ALIGNED PRETTY WELL WITH SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAX
WHICH WAS A LITTLE WEST AND NW OF INCREASING INSTABILITY.
UNLIKE LAST NIGHT WHEN HEAVIEST RAIN FELL IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH 7+
INCHES AND SOME MID AND HIGH MOISTURE THAT ENTRAINED FROM THE REMAINS
OF EAST PACIFIC RACHEL...THAT MOISTURE IS PRETTY WELL CUT OFF OR
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS..SO WILL BE RELYING MORE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ADVECTION FROM LOWER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF AND VIGOROUS FORCING
MECHANISMS MENTIONED ABOVE TO COMPENSATE AND FOLLOW CLOSE TO EVENTUAL
PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARIES AND ESPECIALLY THEIR INTERSECTION FOR TONIGHT`S
HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1830-2300Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THINK BULK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL AFTER THIS
PERIOD...BUT DEVELOPMENT COULD BE WELL UNDERWAY E CENTRAL/SE KANSAS
INTO W CENTRAL MISSOURI CLOSE TO EVENTUALLY PLACEMENT TO BOUNDARIES AND
THEIR INTERSECTION WHICH RIGHT NOW CROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND TRYING TO
INTERSECT WITH SW TO NE  ACROSS SE TO E CENTRAL KANSAS.
SEE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION AND OUTLINED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.  SATELLITE FEATURES GRAPHICS LEADING TO EVENT WILL BE POSTED
TO THE INTERNET SHORTLY.
.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
.
FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
.
FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
.
LAT...LON 3916 9294 3879 9175 3738 9211 3769 9534 3839 9538

.
NNNN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.