Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 180150
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/18/14 0150Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0130Z  JS
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LOCATION...CENT TO SE TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...LOCALIZED SHORT TERM HEAVY RAIN EVENT SETTING UP.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0145-0745Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...IR ANIMATION SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER
ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS CONVECTIVE AREAS
CONGEAL IN REGION OF CENT TO SE TX. ANALYSIS/OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWS
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE IN AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN WACO AND LA GRANGE(K3T5)
WHILE WATER VAPOR ANIMATION CONTINUES TO INDICATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
A MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONNECTION TO THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
ODILE. SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP CONFIRM RECENT GPS AND BLENDED TPW DATA IN
DEPICTING EXTREMELY MOIST PROFILES THROUGH THE COLUMN AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING UP TO 2.3". RATHER LIGHT MEAN WINDS AND HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS ALSO SUPPORT HIGH RAIN RATES WITH SATELLITE SIGNATURE
AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY EASILY ALLOWING FOR WELL OVER 2"/HR RATES
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THIS REGION. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
EXPECT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY LOCALIZED RAINFALL LIKELY EXCEEDING 3" TO
POSSIBLY OVER 4" IN ISOLATED SPOTS AS CELLS MERGE INTO SMALL COMPLEX
IN AREA FROM AROUND LAMPASAS TO FALLS/BELL COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR VERY SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY BUILDING NORTHWARD EMBEDDED IN
THE WEAK INFLOW DIRECTED INTO THE DEVELOPING COMPLEX FROM LEE/BASTROP
COUNTIES TO ENTER THE PICTURE AS WELL. HAVE SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN HOW LONG THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF AFTER THESE
MERGERS OCCUR WITH THE LACK OF A FOCUSED LLJ BUT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS BEING AN ISSUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3154 9741 3118 9667 3046 9636 2980 9650 2962 9714
3014 9816 3093 9871 3149 9810
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