Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 291450
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
PRZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/29/16 1450Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1415Z  JS
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC
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EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES FOR POTENTIAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
DEVELOPING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...ANIMATION OF THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT AND
RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW PUERTO RICO SITUATED ON THE EASTERN
FLANK OF MOISTURE AXIS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2" WHICH IS
VERIFIED BY THE 12Z SAN JUAN SOUNDING. THE ANIMATION ALSO POINTS TOWARD
SOME DRYING NOSING WESTWARD INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BUT
STILL WELL REMOVED FROM PUERTO RICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PUERTO
RICO POSITIONED WITHIN APPARENT RELATIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS
AS WELL, THOUGH THE 12Z SOUNDING DID INDICATE SOME DRYING ABOVE 500MB
WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BELOW 500MB. NOT SEEING THAT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF LARGER SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS THOUGH WATER VAPOR ANIMATION AND THE
GOES HIGH DENSITY WIND PLOT DOES REVEAL A SUBTROPICAL SPEED MAX PASSING
JUST S OF PUERTO RICO WHICH AIDS IN THE GENERAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS, SEEING SOME GENERAL CONVERGENCE OVER THE ISLAND IN
THE VISIBLE ANIMATION AND THE COMPOSITE RADAR.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1445-2045Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...GIVEN THE GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG CAPES SEEN IN THE 12Z
SAN JUAN SOUNDING ALONG WITH LITTLE CINH, NOT SURPRISING TO SEE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY NOW JUST STARTING TO  POP OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, EXPECT A GREATER COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY TO OVERSPREAD THE ISLAND
WITH THE FAVORABLE GENERAL CONVERGENCE NOTED AT THE LOWER LEVELS. GIVEN
THE DECENT COVERAGE OF CELLS, BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS RATHER HIGH WITH A NUMBER OF CELL MERGERS ANTICIPATED.
THE MOISTURE PROFILES DO SUPPORT RATES OF 2"-3"/HR AND EVEN ISOLATED
BRIEFLY HIGHER RATES WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN DETERMINING THE MOST FAVORABLE PORTION OF THE ISLAND FOR THE
GREATER HEAVY RAIN THREAT. INITIALLY, THE CENTRAL TO W AND NW PORTIONS
APPEARED MORE FAVORABLE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LESSER CLOUDINESS AND
MORE HEATING OCCURRING THERE AND CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF SOMEWHAT
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ISLAND WHICH WAS TENDING TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, SINCE THE MOST RECENT TRENDS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF
DEVELOPMENT ALSO OVER THE E PART OF THE ISLAND, CONFIDENCE IN PINPOINTING
A SPECIFIC PORTION OF THE ISLAND FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 1870 6744 1868 6523 1762 6528 1764 6747
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