Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
UXUS97 KGJT 021259
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0559 MST Monday, March 2, 2015

This forecast is for Monday, March 2, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 54.5 F/12.5 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 6512 ft MSL (1673 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 48.0 F/9.3 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 6325 ft MSL (1485 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 03/03...... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:45:23 / 18:06:28 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 21 min 4 sec (681 min 4 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:26:10 MST... 43.80 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 03/02/2015 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 8977 ft MSL (4138 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 9935 ft MSL (5096 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 8277 ft MSL (3438 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +5.4
K index......................... +23.8

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -56.8 -70.2   255   56   29  -4.3  -2.3  107.8 226.0    56.2      M    M
 45000  -55.2 -67.4   240  100   51  -3.4  -1.9   85.6 186.1    46.6      M    M
 40000  -57.9 -72.2   240  102   52   0.5   0.3   57.0 134.5    31.4      M    M
 38000  -59.9 -75.8   240  117   60   1.1   0.6   45.0 113.1    24.2      M    M
 36000  -56.3 -69.3   235  125   64   9.0   5.0   41.8 107.2    22.6      M    M
 34000  -52.0 -61.6   235  122   63   6.2   3.4   39.6 103.3    21.7      M    M
 32000  -47.1 -52.8   235  126   65   8.4   4.6   38.3 100.9    21.3      M    M
 30000  -42.4 -44.3   235  111   57   6.4   3.5   35.9  96.6    20.1      M    M
 29000  -40.5 -40.9   235  108   55   6.3   3.5   34.4  93.8    19.2      M    M
 28000  -38.6 -37.5   235  105   54   6.3   3.5   33.0  91.4    18.4      M    M
 27000  -37.0 -34.6   235  102   52   1.1   0.6   31.4  88.4    17.4      M    M
 26000  -35.7 -32.3   235   99   51   7.5   4.1   29.4  84.8    16.0      M    M
 25000  -33.4 -28.1   235   96   49   7.7   4.2   28.6  83.5    15.6      M    M
 24000  -31.1 -24.0   235   81   42   7.7   4.2   27.8  82.1    15.2      M    M
 23000  -28.6 -19.5   235   71   37   8.5   4.7   27.3  81.1    14.9      M    M
 22000  -26.3 -15.3   230   64   33   5.5   3.0   26.6  79.8    14.5      M    M
 21000  -24.5 -12.1   225   57   29   5.8   3.2   25.1  77.2    13.4      M    M
 20000  -22.8  -9.0   220   50   26   5.8   3.2   23.8  74.9    12.4      M    M
 19500  -21.9  -7.4   220   48   25   8.1   4.5   23.2  73.8    12.0      M    M
 19000  -20.5  -4.9   225   45   23   9.0   4.9   23.1  73.6    11.9      M    M
 18500  -19.2  -2.6   225   43   22   9.1   5.0   23.0  73.4    11.9      M    M
 18000  -18.0  -0.4   225   41   21   7.7   4.2   22.7  72.9    11.7      M    M
 17500  -16.8   1.8   225   40   21   7.8   4.3   22.4  72.3    11.5      M    M
 17000  -15.7   3.7   225   39   20   7.9   4.3   22.1  71.8    11.2      M    M
 16500  -14.1   6.6   225   40   21   6.1   3.3   21.4  70.6    10.7      M    M
 16000  -13.2   8.2   225   41   21   6.2   3.4   20.9  69.6    10.2      M    M
 15500  -12.3   9.9   220   42   22   6.2   3.4   20.3  68.5     9.7      M    M
 15000  -11.4  11.5   220   44   22   6.3   3.4   19.7  67.4     9.3      M    M
 14500  -10.5  13.1   215   45   23   6.3   3.4   19.1  66.4     8.8      M    M
 14000   -9.6  14.7   215   46   24   6.3   3.4   18.6  65.5     8.3      M    M
 13500   -8.7  16.3   215   48   25   6.3   3.4   18.0  64.4     7.8      M    M
 13000   -7.7  18.1   215   50   26   6.3   3.4   17.5  63.4     7.3      M    M
 12500   -6.8  19.8   210   47   24   6.3   3.5   16.9  62.4     6.8      M    M
 12000   -5.9  21.4   210   44   23   6.3   3.5   16.3  61.4     6.3      M    M
 11500   -5.0  23.0   210   41   21   6.3   3.5   15.7  60.3     5.7      M    M
 11000   -4.1  24.6   210   39   20   6.3   3.5   15.1  59.2     5.2      M    M
 10500   -3.2  26.2   210   37   19   6.3   3.5   14.5  58.2     4.6      M    M
 10250   -2.7  27.1   210   36   18   6.4   3.5   14.3  57.7     4.4      M    M
 10000   -2.3  27.9   210   34   18   6.1   3.3   14.0  57.2     4.1      M    M
  9750   -1.9  28.6   210   33   17   4.2   2.3   13.7  56.6     3.8      M    M
  9500   -1.6  29.1   210   32   16   6.7   3.7   13.3  55.9     3.4      M    M
  9250   -0.9  30.4   205   30   16  10.4   5.7   13.2  55.8     3.4      M    M
  9000   -0.1  31.8   205   29   15  10.9   6.0   13.3  55.9     3.4      M    M
  8750    0.7  33.3   205   26   14   8.6   4.7   13.3  56.0     3.5      M    M
  8500    1.1  34.0   205   24   12   2.5   1.4   13.0  55.4     3.1      M    M
  8250    1.2  34.2   205   21   11   2.5   1.3   12.3  54.2     2.5      M    M
  8000    1.5  34.7   205   18    9   7.1   3.9   12.0  53.6     2.1      M    M
  7750    2.1  35.8   200   17    9   8.3   4.6   11.8  53.3     2.0      M    M
  7500    2.7  36.9   195   16    8   7.9   4.3   11.7  53.1     1.9      M    M
  7250    3.3  37.9   185   15    8   8.3   4.6   11.6  52.8     1.7      M    M
  7000    3.9  39.0   175   14    7   7.2   3.9   11.4  52.6     1.6      M    M
  6750    4.5  40.1   175   13    6  11.3   6.2   11.3  52.4     1.5      M    M
  6500    4.4  39.9   175   11    6 -28.0 -15.4   10.6  51.0     0.7      M    M
  6250    1.3  34.3   180    9    5 -30.0 -16.5    6.5  43.7    -3.2    165  0.8
  6000    1.1  34.0   180    7    4   8.5   4.7    5.5  42.0    -4.1    163  0.8
  5750    1.5  34.7   180    6    3   5.2   2.9    5.2  41.4    -4.4    143  0.7
  5500    1.9  35.4   185    4    2   6.1   3.3    4.9  40.9    -4.7    122  0.6
  5250    2.4  36.3   195    2    1   5.9   3.3    4.7  40.4    -5.0    102  0.5
  5000    2.8  37.0   265    1    0   5.5   3.0    4.4  39.9    -5.3     81  0.4

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           03/02/2015 at 0800 MST          |       03/02/2015 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +23.1  LI... -0.7               | K index... +19.5  LI... -0.8
CAPE... +27.8  CIN... -33.4                | CAPE... +65.0  CIN... -13.6
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -57.9 -72.2  250  67 34   1.7   0.9 | -57.3 -71.1  240  64 33   1.2   0.7
 45000 -55.3 -67.5  245  94 48   2.0   1.1 | -55.4 -67.7  240  96 49   0.6   0.3
 40000 -56.3 -69.3  240 111 57  -0.8  -0.4 | -55.9 -68.6  235 112 58  -0.4  -0.2
 38000 -55.8 -68.4  235 117 60   3.1   1.7 | -55.3 -67.5  235 119 61   3.0   1.7
 36000 -53.9 -65.0  235 121 62   3.1   1.7 | -53.5 -64.3  230 125 64   3.0   1.7
 34000 -51.9 -61.4  235 125 64   7.4   4.1 | -51.5 -60.7  230 130 67   6.7   3.7
 32000 -46.9 -52.4  235 122 63   8.3   4.5 | -46.8 -52.2  230 127 65   7.9   4.3
 30000 -42.0 -43.6  235 119 61   7.3   4.0 | -41.5 -42.7  230 122 63   7.0   3.8
 29000 -39.5 -39.1  235 114 58   6.8   3.7 | -39.4 -38.9  230 118 61   7.1   3.9
 28000 -37.5 -35.5  235 109 56   6.8   3.7 | -37.3 -35.1  230 114 59   7.1   3.9
 27000 -35.4 -31.7  235 105 54   6.7   3.7 | -35.1 -31.2  230 110 57   7.1   3.9
 26000 -33.7 -28.7  235  99 51   5.5   3.0 | -33.2 -27.8  230 105 54   6.2   3.4
 25000 -32.1 -25.8  235  93 48   5.5   3.0 | -31.3 -24.3  230 101 52   6.2   3.4
 24000 -30.4 -22.7  235  87 45   5.6   3.0 | -29.4 -20.9  230  96 50   6.4   3.5
 23000 -28.8 -19.8  235  78 40   5.4   3.0 | -28.0 -18.4  230  89 46   4.0   2.2
 22000 -27.2 -17.0  235  67 35   5.4   3.0 | -26.8 -16.2  230  81 42   4.1   2.3
 21000 -25.6 -14.1  230  56 29   5.6   3.1 | -25.7 -14.3  230  72 37   4.5   2.5
 20000 -23.6 -10.5  230  45 23   6.8   3.7 | -23.7 -10.7  230  63 33   7.1   3.9
 19500 -22.6  -8.7  225  40 20   6.8   3.7 | -22.6  -8.7  225  59 30   7.1   3.9
 19000 -21.6  -6.9  225  34 18   6.8   3.7 | -21.6  -6.9  225  54 28   7.1   3.9
 18500 -20.6  -5.1  220  29 15   6.8   3.7 | -20.5  -4.9  225  50 26   7.0   3.9
 18000 -19.5  -3.1  220  29 15   8.0   4.4 | -19.4  -2.9  220  45 23   7.9   4.3
 17500 -18.4  -1.1  225  34 17   7.9   4.3 | -18.2  -0.8  220  41 21   7.8   4.3
 17000 -17.2   1.0  230  38 20   7.6   4.2 | -17.1   1.2  220  37 19   7.4   4.1
 16500 -16.1   3.0  225  42 21   7.5   4.1 | -16.0   3.2  220  38 20   7.1   3.9
 16000 -15.0   5.0  225  45 23   7.6   4.2 | -15.0   5.0  225  39 20   7.0   3.8
 15500 -13.8   7.2  225  48 25   7.9   4.3 | -14.0   6.8  225  42 22   6.4   3.5
 15000 -12.7   9.1  230  51 26   7.9   4.4 | -13.1   8.4  230  46 24   6.5   3.5
 14500 -11.5  11.3  230  52 27   7.7   4.2 | -12.1  10.2  230  48 25   7.0   3.8
 14000  -9.8  14.4  230  51 26   7.8   4.3 | -10.6  12.9  230  50 26   7.1   3.9
 13500  -8.7  16.3  230  51 26   7.9   4.3 |  -9.5  14.9  230  50 26   7.4   4.1
 13000  -7.5  18.5  230  51 26   7.8   4.3 |  -8.4  16.9  230  49 25   7.5   4.1
 12500  -6.5  20.3  225  51 26   7.1   3.9 |  -7.3  18.9  230  50 25   7.7   4.2
 12000  -5.4  22.3  225  51 26   7.1   3.9 |  -6.2  20.8  225  50 26   7.7   4.2
 11500  -4.4  24.1  225  50 26   6.7   3.7 |  -5.0  23.0  225  50 26   7.9   4.3
 11000  -3.4  25.9  220  50 26   6.5   3.5 |  -3.9  25.0  225  50 26   7.7   4.2
 10500  -2.6  27.3  220  48 25   5.1   2.8 |  -2.8  27.0  220  49 25   6.4   3.5
 10250  -2.2  28.0  220  48 24   6.1   3.3 |  -2.3  27.9  220  49 25   7.4   4.0
 10000  -1.7  28.9  215  47 24   7.5   4.1 |  -1.8  28.8  220  49 25   8.1   4.4
  9750  -1.2  29.8  215  46 24   7.4   4.0 |  -1.2  29.8  215  48 25   7.0   3.9
  9500  -0.7  30.7  215  45 23   7.1   3.9 |  -0.7  30.7  215  47 24   6.6   3.6
  9250  -0.1  31.8  215  44 23   7.2   3.9 |  -0.3  31.5  210  46 24   6.7   3.7
  9000   0.4  32.7  210  44 22   7.0   3.9 |   0.2  32.4  210  45 23   6.6   3.6
  8750   0.9  33.6  210  43 22   7.2   3.9 |   0.7  33.3  210  44 23   6.7   3.7
  8500   1.4  34.5  210  42 21   7.2   3.9 |   1.2  34.2  210  42 21   6.7   3.7
  8250   1.9  35.4  205  41 21   7.5   4.1 |   1.6  34.9  205  40 20   7.1   3.9
  8000   2.5  36.5  205  39 20   7.3   4.0 |   2.2  36.0  205  38 19   8.1   4.4
  7750   3.0  37.4  200  38 19   6.0   3.3 |   2.8  37.0  205  35 18   7.8   4.3
  7500   3.4  38.1  200  35 18   5.7   3.1 |   3.3  37.9  200  33 17   7.0   3.9
  7250   3.8  38.8  200  34 17   5.5   3.0 |   3.8  38.8  200  30 15   7.6   4.2
  7000   4.2  39.6  195  31 16   4.6   2.6 |   4.4  39.9  195  28 14   8.2   4.5
  6750   4.5  40.1  190  29 15   3.8   2.1 |   5.0  41.0  195  25 13   8.1   4.5
  6500   4.7  40.5  185  26 13   2.9   1.6 |   5.6  42.1  195  23 12   8.0   4.4
  6250   4.8  40.6  180  23 12  -2.2  -1.2 |   6.2  43.2  190  21 11   9.3   5.1
  6000   4.4  39.9  175  20 10  -5.5  -3.0 |   6.9  44.4  190  19 10  10.0   5.5
  5750   4.1  39.4  170  16  8  -3.8  -2.1 |   7.6  45.7  190  17  9   9.2   5.1
  5500   3.8  38.8  160  12  6  -3.8  -2.1 |   8.2  46.8  185  15  8   8.2   4.5
  5250   3.5  38.3  160  11  6  -4.3  -2.4 |   8.7  47.7  185  14  7   6.8   3.7
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           03/02/2015 at 1400 MST          |       03/02/2015 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +23.2  LI... -0.7               | K index... +26.9  LI... -0.7
CAPE... +56.8  CIN... -9.4                 | CAPE... +123.6  CIN... -5.2
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -56.4 -69.5  235  62 32   1.0   0.6 | -55.9 -68.6  235  61 31   0.1   0.0
 45000 -54.8 -66.6  235  93 48   0.7   0.4 | -55.8 -68.4  235  86 44   0.0   0.0
 40000 -55.0 -67.0  235 117 60  -0.1  -0.1 | -55.0 -67.0  235 114 59   0.6   0.3
 38000 -54.3 -65.7  235 126 65   3.0   1.6 | -53.9 -65.0  235 128 66   3.5   1.9
 36000 -52.6 -62.7  230 134 69   2.9   1.6 | -51.7 -61.1  230 143 74   3.5   1.9
 34000 -50.8 -59.4  230 142 73   5.2   2.9 | -49.6 -57.3  230 158 81   5.7   3.1
 32000 -46.4 -51.5  230 137 71   7.3   4.0 | -45.4 -49.7  230 149 77   6.9   3.8
 30000 -41.5 -42.7  230 132 68   7.1   3.9 | -41.3 -42.3  230 140 72   5.9   3.3
 29000 -39.5 -39.1  230 127 66   6.9   3.8 | -39.8 -39.6  230 131 67   4.8   2.6
 28000 -37.4 -35.3  230 123 64   6.9   3.8 | -38.4 -37.1  230 122 63   4.8   2.6
 27000 -35.3 -31.5  230 119 61   7.1   3.9 | -36.9 -34.4  230 113 58   4.8   2.6
 26000 -33.8 -28.8  230 112 58   4.5   2.5 | -35.6 -32.1  230 104 53   4.1   2.2
 25000 -32.4 -26.3  230 103 53   4.5   2.5 | -34.4 -29.9  230  93 48   4.1   2.2
 24000 -31.0 -23.8  230  94 48   4.5   2.5 | -33.2 -27.8  230  82 42   4.1   2.3
 23000 -29.4 -20.9  230  82 42   6.3   3.5 | -31.5 -24.7  230  74 38   8.4   4.6
 22000 -27.5 -17.5  230  69 35   6.4   3.5 | -28.4 -19.1  230  70 36   8.3   4.6
 21000 -25.6 -14.1  230  55 28   6.5   3.5 | -25.9 -14.6  235  67 34   8.4   4.6
 20000 -23.5 -10.3  225  48 25   7.2   3.9 | -23.4 -10.1  230  64 33   8.4   4.6
 19500 -22.5  -8.5  225  46 24   7.2   3.9 | -22.2  -8.0  230  63 32   8.4   4.6
 19000 -21.4  -6.5  225  44 22   7.2   3.9 | -20.9  -5.6  230  61 32   8.4   4.6
 18500 -20.4  -4.7  225  41 21   7.2   3.9 | -19.7  -3.5  230  60 31   8.5   4.6
 18000 -19.3  -2.7  225  39 20   7.3   4.0 | -18.5  -1.3  230  58 30   8.1   4.5
 17500 -18.2  -0.8  225  38 20   7.4   4.0 | -17.3   0.9  230  56 29   8.2   4.5
 17000 -17.1   1.2  230  38 19   7.4   4.1 | -16.1   3.0  230  54 28   7.4   4.0
 16500 -16.0   3.2  230  41 21   7.6   4.1 | -15.1   4.8  230  55 28   7.0   3.8
 16000 -14.9   5.2  235  45 23   7.6   4.2 | -14.1   6.6  225  56 29   7.0   3.8
 15500 -13.8   7.2  235  47 24   7.4   4.1 | -13.0   8.6  225  56 29   7.3   4.0
 15000 -12.7   9.1  235  48 25   7.5   4.1 | -11.9  10.6  225  55 28   7.4   4.1
 14500 -11.1  12.0  235  49 25   6.9   3.8 | -10.9  12.4  225  55 28   6.7   3.7
 14000 -10.1  13.8  235  49 25   6.9   3.8 |  -9.9  14.2  220  54 28   6.8   3.7
 13500  -9.1  15.6  235  49 25   7.2   3.9 |  -8.9  16.0  220  53 27   7.0   3.8
 13000  -8.0  17.6  235  48 25   7.2   3.9 |  -7.9  17.8  220  52 27   7.1   3.9
 12500  -7.0  19.4  230  48 24   6.8   3.7 |  -6.9  19.6  220  51 26   6.5   3.6
 12000  -6.0  21.2  230  47 24   6.8   3.8 |  -6.0  21.2  220  49 25   6.4   3.5
 11500  -5.0  23.0  230  46 24   7.1   3.9 |  -5.0  23.0  215  47 24   6.6   3.6
 11000  -4.0  24.8  225  45 23   7.1   3.9 |  -4.1  24.6  215  45 23   6.7   3.6
 10500  -3.0  26.6  220  44 23   6.6   3.6 |  -3.1  26.4  215  43 22   6.4   3.5
 10250  -2.5  27.5  220  43 22   6.5   3.6 |  -2.7  27.1  215  41 21   6.4   3.5
 10000  -2.0  28.4  215  42 22   6.1   3.3 |  -2.2  28.0  215  39 20   6.6   3.6
  9750  -1.6  29.1  215  41 21   6.8   3.7 |  -1.7  28.9  215  38 20   6.8   3.7
  9500  -1.0  30.2  215  39 20   7.4   4.1 |  -1.2  29.8  215  37 19   6.7   3.7
  9250  -0.5  31.1  210  37 19   7.2   3.9 |  -0.7  30.7  215  35 18   7.0   3.9
  9000   0.0  32.0  210  36 18   6.8   3.7 |  -0.2  31.6  215  34 17   5.8   3.2
  8750   0.5  32.9  205  34 18   7.6   4.2 |   0.2  32.4  215  33 17   6.6   3.6
  8500   1.1  34.0  205  33 17   8.7   4.8 |   0.8  33.4  215  31 16   8.9   4.9
  8250   1.7  35.1  205  31 16   7.9   4.3 |   1.4  34.5  220  30 15   9.4   5.2
  8000   2.3  36.1  205  30 15  10.2   5.6 |   2.1  35.8  220  29 15   7.5   4.1
  7750   3.2  37.8  205  29 15  10.5   5.8 |   2.5  36.5  220  27 14   6.8   3.7
  7500   3.8  38.8  200  28 14   8.6   4.7 |   3.1  37.6  220  26 13   8.1   4.4
  7250   4.5  40.1  200  27 14   9.2   5.1 |   3.7  38.7  220  24 12   8.0   4.4
  7000   5.2  41.4  200  26 14   9.8   5.4 |   4.3  39.7  225  22 11   7.1   3.9
  6750   5.9  42.6  200  25 13   9.9   5.4 |   4.8  40.6  225  20 10   7.1   3.9
  6500   6.6  43.9  200  24 13   9.4   5.2 |   5.3  41.5  225  18  9   8.0   4.4
  6250   7.3  45.1  200  23 12   9.8   5.4 |   5.9  42.6  230  16  8   7.9   4.3
  6000   8.1  46.6  200  22 11  10.3   5.6 |   6.4  43.5  230  14  7   7.2   3.9
  5750   8.9  48.0  200  20 10  10.6   5.8 |   6.9  44.4  230  13  7   7.5   4.1
  5500   9.6  49.3  200  18  9  10.4   5.7 |   7.6  45.7  230  11  6  10.0   5.5
  5250  10.3  50.5  200  17  9   8.9   4.9 |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 0.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 32 min 0.000 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.