Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 221303
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0603 MST Wednesday, February 22, 2017

This forecast is for Wednesday, February 22, 2017:

If the trigger temperature of 56.2 F/13.5 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 489 ft/min (2.5 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 14701 ft MSL (9865 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 61.0 F/16.6 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1145 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1200 MST
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 7335 ft MSL (2499 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 02/23..... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:55:57 / 17:58:21 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 2 min 24 sec (662 min 24 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:27:25 MST... 41.00 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 02/22/2017 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 9402 ft MSL (4566 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 12345 ft MSL (7509 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 13133 ft MSL (8297 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +3.2
K index......................... +6.9

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -52.4 -62.3   270   40   21   5.1   2.8  114.9 238.8    56.2      M    M
 45000  -52.8 -63.0   255  110   57  -7.5  -4.1   89.3 192.8    44.5      M    M
 40000  -56.5 -69.7   260  104   53   4.1   2.2   59.0 138.2    28.0      M    M
 38000  -56.2 -69.2   260   95   49   1.6   0.9   50.7 123.2    23.1      M    M
 36000  -56.5 -69.7   265   87   45   2.4   1.3   41.8 107.2    17.7      M    M
 34000  -54.7 -66.5   265  100   51   7.4   4.1   35.9  96.6    14.0      M    M
 32000  -50.1 -58.2   260   96   49   7.7   4.2   34.2  93.6    13.1      M    M
 30000  -46.2 -51.2   260   88   45   7.7   4.2   31.5  88.7    11.5      M    M
 29000  -43.3 -45.9   260   87   45   8.3   4.5   30.5  87.0    10.9      M    M
 28000  -40.8 -41.4   260   85   44   8.3   4.5   29.9  85.8    10.6      M    M
 27000  -38.3 -36.9   255   84   43   8.1   4.5   29.4  85.0    10.3      M    M
 26000  -35.9 -32.6   255   83   43   8.7   4.8   28.8  83.8     9.9      M    M
 25000  -33.3 -27.9   255   82   42   8.8   4.8   28.4  83.2     9.8      M    M
 24000  -30.7 -23.3   260   82   42   8.7   4.8   28.0  82.5     9.6      M    M
 23000  -28.2 -18.8   260   81   42   8.0   4.4   27.5  81.5     9.3      M    M
 22000  -25.8 -14.4   260   81   41   8.4   4.6   26.8  80.3     8.8      M    M
 21000  -23.3  -9.9   260   80   41   8.2   4.5   26.3  79.4     8.5      M    M
 20000  -21.7  -7.1   260   79   41   2.7   1.5   24.8  76.7     7.3      M    M
 19500  -21.0  -5.8   260   76   39   5.0   2.8   23.9  75.1     6.6      M    M
 19000  -20.2  -4.4   260   73   37   6.4   3.5   23.2  73.8     6.0      M    M
 18500  -19.2  -2.6   260   70   36   6.4   3.5   22.6  72.7     5.6      M    M
 18000  -18.0  -0.4   260   68   35   8.7   4.8   22.2  72.0     5.3      M    M
 17500  -16.7   1.9   260   68   35   8.6   4.7   22.0  71.7     5.2      M    M
 17000  -15.5   4.1   255   67   35   8.8   4.8   21.8  71.3     5.0      M    M
 16500  -14.3   6.3   255   67   34   5.5   3.0   21.5  70.7     4.7      M    M
 16000  -13.3   8.1   255   66   34   4.1   2.2   20.2  68.4     3.7      M    M
 15500  -12.7   9.1   255   64   33   4.8   2.6   19.2  66.5     2.7      M    M
 15000  -13.2   8.2   255   61   31  -7.6  -4.2   17.1  62.7     0.8      M    M
 14500  -13.3   8.1   255   54   28   4.1   2.2   15.5  59.8    -0.7    877  4.5
 14000  -12.4   9.7   255   47   24   8.6   4.7   15.0  58.9    -1.3    834  4.2
 13500  -11.2  11.8   255   44   23   8.5   4.7   14.7  58.5    -1.6    784  4.0
 13000   -9.8  14.4   255   41   21   9.4   5.1   14.6  58.3    -1.7    729  3.7
 12500   -8.5  16.7   255   39   20   9.3   5.1   14.5  58.2    -1.8    673  3.4
 12000   -7.1  19.2   255   37   19   9.3   5.1   14.5  58.1    -1.8    617  3.1
 11500   -5.7  21.7   255   36   18   9.3   5.1   14.4  57.9    -2.0    561  2.8
 11000   -4.3  24.3   250   34   18   9.4   5.1   14.3  57.7    -2.1    505  2.6
 10500   -3.0  26.6   250   33   17   9.4   5.1   14.2  57.6    -2.2    449  2.3
 10250   -2.3  27.9   245   32   17   9.4   5.1   14.2  57.6    -2.2    421  2.1
 10000   -1.6  29.1   245   32   16   9.1   5.0   14.2  57.6    -2.2    393  2.0
  9750   -0.9  30.4   245   31   16   8.9   4.9   14.1  57.5    -2.3    366  1.9
  9500   -0.3  31.5   245   30   16   9.0   4.9   14.1  57.4    -2.4    338  1.7
  9250    0.4  32.7   240   30   15   8.9   4.9   14.0  57.3    -2.4    311  1.6
  9000    1.1  34.0   240   29   15   9.0   4.9   14.0  57.2    -2.5    284  1.4
  8750    1.7  35.1   240   28   14   9.0   4.9   13.9  57.1    -2.6    257  1.3
  8500    2.4  36.3   235   26   13   9.0   4.9   13.9  57.0    -2.6    230  1.2
  8250    3.0  37.4   235   25   13   9.0   4.9   13.8  56.9    -2.7    203  1.0
  8000    3.7  38.7   230   23   12   9.0   4.9   13.8  56.8    -2.8    176  0.9
  7750    4.3  39.7   230   21   11   9.0   4.9   13.7  56.7    -2.9    149  0.8
  7500    5.0  41.0   235   18    9   9.0   4.9   13.7  56.6    -2.9    122  0.6
  7250    5.7  42.3   240   16    8   9.0   4.9   13.6  56.5    -3.0     94  0.5
  7000    6.3  43.3   245   13    7   9.0   4.9   13.5  56.4    -3.1     67  0.3
  6750    7.0  44.6   240   12    6   9.0   4.9   13.5  56.2    -3.2     40  0.2
  6500    7.6  45.7   230   11    5   9.0   4.9   13.4  56.1    -3.3     13  0.1
  6250    8.3  46.9   220   10    5   9.1   5.0   13.3  56.0    -3.3      M    M
  6000    9.0  48.2   210    9    5   8.5   4.7   13.3  55.9    -3.4      M    M
  5750    9.6  49.3   205    7    4  10.6   5.8   13.2  55.8    -3.5      M    M
  5500   10.3  50.5   205    5    3   2.9   1.6   13.1  55.6    -3.6      M    M
  5250    9.8  49.6   210    3    1 -12.1  -6.6   12.0  53.5    -4.8      M    M
  5000    8.7  47.7   255    1    0 -16.0  -8.8   10.1  50.2    -6.6      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           02/22/2017 at 0800 MST          |       02/22/2017 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -4.6  LI... +2.4                | K index... +1.8  LI... +1.7
CAPE... +46.8  CIN... -3.0                 | CAPE... +60.8  CIN... -0.5
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -57.6 -71.7  265  63 32   2.3   1.3 | -59.0 -74.2  265  50 26   3.6   2.0
 45000 -54.0 -65.2  265  81 41   1.1   0.6 | -53.4 -64.1  270  78 40   1.9   1.1
 40000 -54.7 -66.5  265  97 50  -0.5  -0.3 | -53.8 -64.8  265  91 47  -0.3  -0.2
 38000 -54.9 -66.8  265  99 51  -0.3  -0.1 | -54.0 -65.2  265  92 48  -0.2  -0.1
 36000 -55.1 -67.2  265  95 49  -0.3  -0.1 | -54.2 -65.6  265  88 45  -0.2  -0.1
 34000 -55.1 -67.2  265  91 47   4.9   2.7 | -54.2 -65.6  265  83 43   4.0   2.2
 32000 -50.7 -59.3  260  93 48   7.2   4.0 | -50.1 -58.2  260  81 42   6.8   3.7
 30000 -46.3 -51.3  260  94 48   8.3   4.6 | -45.4 -49.7  255  80 41   8.3   4.6
 29000 -43.2 -45.8  260  85 44   8.4   4.6 | -43.0 -45.4  255  80 41   8.2   4.5
 28000 -40.7 -41.3  260  78 40   8.4   4.6 | -40.5 -40.9  255  80 41   8.2   4.5
 27000 -38.1 -36.6  255  71 37   8.3   4.5 | -38.0 -36.4  255  80 41   8.1   4.5
 26000 -35.8 -32.4  255  74 38   7.8   4.3 | -35.8 -32.4  255  79 41   7.3   4.0
 25000 -33.4 -28.1  260  77 39   7.8   4.3 | -33.6 -28.5  255  78 40   7.4   4.0
 24000 -31.1 -24.0  260  80 41   7.8   4.3 | -31.4 -24.5  260  77 40   7.4   4.1
 23000 -28.8 -19.8  260  79 41   7.5   4.1 | -29.2 -20.6  260  75 39   7.2   4.0
 22000 -26.5 -15.7  260  78 40   7.5   4.1 | -27.0 -16.6  255  74 38   7.2   4.0
 21000 -24.3 -11.7  260  77 39   7.0   3.8 | -24.9 -12.8  255  72 37   7.1   3.9
 20000 -22.4  -8.3  260  72 37   6.4   3.5 | -22.8  -9.0  255  69 35   7.0   3.8
 19500 -21.4  -6.5  260  70 36   6.4   3.5 | -21.7  -7.1  255  67 35   7.0   3.8
 19000 -20.5  -4.9  260  68 35   6.4   3.5 | -20.7  -5.3  255  66 34   7.0   3.8
 18500 -19.5  -3.1  260  65 34   6.6   3.6 | -19.6  -3.3  255  64 33   7.0   3.9
 18000 -18.5  -1.3  260  64 33   7.4   4.0 | -18.6  -1.5  255  63 32   7.4   4.0
 17500 -17.4   0.7  260  63 33   7.4   4.0 | -17.5   0.5  255  61 31   7.4   4.1
 17000 -16.3   2.7  260  62 32   7.1   3.9 | -16.4   2.5  255  59 30   6.5   3.6
 16500 -15.2   4.6  255  61 31   7.0   3.9 | -15.5   4.1  250  56 29   6.4   3.5
 16000 -14.1   6.6  255  60 31   6.3   3.5 | -14.5   5.9  250  54 28   6.1   3.4
 15500 -13.3   8.1  255  57 30   5.6   3.1 | -13.6   7.5  250  51 26   5.8   3.2
 15000 -12.5   9.5  255  55 28   5.5   3.0 | -12.8   9.0  250  49 25   5.6   3.1
 14500 -11.7  10.9  255  52 27   5.2   2.8 | -12.2  10.0  250  46 24   3.4   1.9
 14000 -10.6  12.9  255  46 24   4.1   2.2 | -11.4  11.5  245  41 21   3.7   2.0
 13500 -10.1  13.8  255  42 22   3.5   1.9 | -10.9  12.4  245  38 20   3.9   2.1
 13000  -9.6  14.7  255  39 20   3.5   1.9 | -10.3  13.5  245  35 18   4.8   2.6
 12500  -9.2  15.4  250  34 18   3.7   2.1 |  -9.5  14.9  240  32 17   6.5   3.5
 12000  -8.7  16.3  250  30 15   5.4   3.0 |  -8.5  16.7  240  29 15   7.1   3.9
 11500  -7.7  18.1  250  27 14   7.3   4.0 |  -7.4  18.7  235  26 13   8.1   4.5
 11000  -6.6  20.1  250  25 13   7.0   3.8 |  -6.2  20.8  235  23 12   7.7   4.2
 10500  -5.7  21.7  250  23 12   5.8   3.2 |  -5.2  22.6  230  21 11   6.5   3.6
 10250  -5.2  22.6  245  22 11   9.7   5.3 |  -4.7  23.5  230  20 10   9.2   5.1
 10000  -4.3  24.3  245  21 11  11.3   6.2 |  -4.0  24.8  225  19 10  10.0   5.5
  9750  -3.7  25.3  245  21 11   8.5   4.7 |  -3.4  25.9  225  18  9   7.8   4.3
  9500  -3.0  26.6  245  21 11   9.3   5.1 |  -2.8  27.0  225  18  9   8.4   4.6
  9250  -2.4  27.7  245  21 11   9.0   4.9 |  -2.2  28.0  225  17  9   8.3   4.5
  9000  -1.7  28.9  245  21 11   8.8   4.8 |  -1.6  29.1  220  16  8   7.9   4.3
  8750  -1.1  30.0  245  21 11   8.8   4.8 |  -1.1  30.0  220  15  8   7.4   4.1
  8500  -0.5  31.1  240  21 11   8.8   4.9 |  -0.5  31.1  215  14  7   7.6   4.2
  8250   0.2  32.4  240  20 10   8.7   4.8 |  -0.0  32.0  215  12  6   7.2   4.0
  8000   0.8  33.4  240  19 10   8.3   4.5 |   0.5  32.9  210  11  6   7.4   4.0
  7750   1.4  34.5  240  18  9   7.9   4.3 |   1.1  34.0  210  10  5   8.2   4.5
  7500   1.9  35.4  240  17  9   7.5   4.1 |   1.7  35.1  205   9  5   8.3   4.6
  7250   2.4  36.3  240  16  8   6.4   3.5 |   2.3  36.1  205   8  4   9.5   5.2
  7000   2.9  37.2  235  14  7   5.6   3.1 |   3.1  37.6  205   8  4  10.3   5.6
  6750   3.3  37.9  230  12  6   6.6   3.6 |   3.8  38.8  210   8  4   9.2   5.0
  6500   3.7  38.7  225  10  5   3.5   1.9 |   4.5  40.1  210   7  4   9.8   5.4
  6250   3.8  38.8  215   8  4  -0.5  -0.3 |   5.3  41.5  210   7  4  11.2   6.1
  6000   3.8  38.8  200   6  3   2.0   1.1 |   6.1  43.0  210   7  4  10.8   5.9
  5750   4.0  39.2  170   5  2   0.1   0.0 |   6.9  44.4  215   6  3  10.1   5.5
  5500   3.7  38.7  145   4  2  -7.6  -4.2 |   7.6  45.7  215   6  3  10.8   5.9
  5250   2.9  37.2  140   4  2 -11.0  -6.0 |   8.5  47.3  215   6  3  12.4   6.8
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           02/22/2017 at 1400 MST          |       02/22/2017 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +11.9  LI... +0.1               | K index... +18.7  LI... -0.7
CAPE... +108.4  CIN... -0.0                | CAPE... +162.5  CIN... -0.1
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -58.8 -73.8  265  54 28   4.4   2.4 | -58.3 -72.9  265  49 25   4.6   2.5
 45000 -51.9 -61.4  270  81 42   2.4   1.3 | -51.3 -60.3  270  85 44   5.1   2.8
 40000 -53.4 -64.1  265  92 47  -1.0  -0.6 | -52.5 -62.5  265  90 46  -1.1  -0.6
 38000 -53.8 -64.8  265  92 48  -0.1  -0.1 | -53.1 -63.6  265  90 46  -0.6  -0.3
 36000 -53.9 -65.0  260  86 45  -0.1  -0.1 | -53.5 -64.3  260  86 44  -0.6  -0.3
 34000 -54.0 -65.2  255  81 42   3.4   1.8 | -53.8 -64.8  255  82 42   1.8   1.0
 32000 -49.8 -57.6  255  82 42   7.0   3.8 | -49.7 -57.5  255  82 42   7.1   3.9
 30000 -45.1 -49.2  255  82 42   6.9   3.8 | -45.5 -49.9  255  82 42   7.0   3.9
 29000 -43.0 -45.4  255  81 42   6.9   3.8 | -43.0 -45.4  250  83 43   6.7   3.7
 28000 -40.9 -41.6  255  81 42   6.9   3.8 | -40.9 -41.6  250  83 43   6.7   3.7
 27000 -38.9 -38.0  255  80 41   6.9   3.8 | -38.9 -38.0  250  83 43   6.6   3.6
 26000 -36.3 -33.3  255  77 39   8.9   4.9 | -36.6 -33.9  250  84 43   8.2   4.5
 25000 -33.7 -28.7  255  72 37   8.9   4.9 | -34.1 -29.4  250  84 43   8.2   4.5
 24000 -31.0 -23.8  250  68 35   9.0   5.0 | -31.6 -24.9  250  85 44   8.2   4.5
 23000 -28.8 -19.8  255  69 36   6.9   3.8 | -29.3 -20.7  250  83 43   7.9   4.3
 22000 -26.7 -16.1  255  73 38   6.9   3.8 | -26.9 -16.4  255  81 42   7.9   4.3
 21000 -24.6 -12.3  255  77 40   6.9   3.8 | -24.5 -12.1  255  78 40   8.0   4.4
 20000 -22.7  -8.9  255  73 38   6.4   3.5 | -22.6  -8.7  250  73 37   5.9   3.2
 19500 -21.7  -7.1  255  71 37   6.4   3.5 | -21.8  -7.2  250  69 36   6.0   3.3
 19000 -20.8  -5.4  255  69 35   6.4   3.5 | -20.9  -5.6  250  66 34   6.0   3.3
 18500 -19.8  -3.6  255  66 34   6.4   3.5 | -20.0  -4.0  250  63 32   6.1   3.3
 18000 -18.8  -1.8  250  64 33   7.4   4.0 | -19.1  -2.4  245  60 31   5.4   3.0
 17500 -17.7   0.1  250  63 32   7.3   4.0 | -18.3  -0.9  245  59 30   5.4   3.0
 17000 -16.6   2.1  250  61 31   6.6   3.6 | -17.5   0.5  245  58 30   5.4   3.0
 16500 -15.7   3.7  250  60 31   6.3   3.4 | -16.7   1.9  245  58 30   5.4   3.0
 16000 -14.8   5.4  245  59 30   6.0   3.3 | -15.9   3.4  245  58 30   5.5   3.0
 15500 -14.0   6.8  245  57 30   5.0   2.7 | -15.0   5.0  245  57 29   6.6   3.6
 15000 -13.3   8.1  245  56 29   5.1   2.8 | -14.1   6.6  245  56 29   6.5   3.6
 14500 -12.7   9.1  245  53 27   3.7   2.0 | -13.1   8.4  240  53 27   8.0   4.4
 14000 -11.9  10.6  240  47 24   5.0   2.7 | -11.4  11.5  240  48 25   8.1   4.4
 13500 -11.0  12.2  240  43 22   6.8   3.7 | -10.2  13.6  240  44 23   8.0   4.4
 13000 -10.1  13.8  235  39 20   7.4   4.0 |  -9.1  15.6  235  40 21   8.0   4.4
 12500  -8.8  16.2  235  35 18   9.2   5.0 |  -7.9  17.8  235  37 19   8.3   4.6
 12000  -7.5  18.5  230  33 17   9.0   5.0 |  -6.7  19.9  235  34 18   8.3   4.6
 11500  -6.2  20.8  230  29 15   8.6   4.7 |  -5.5  22.1  230  32 16   7.7   4.2
 11000  -5.0  23.0  230  26 14   8.3   4.6 |  -4.4  24.1  230  29 15   7.8   4.3
 10500  -3.9  25.0  225  23 12   6.9   3.8 |  -3.3  26.1  225  26 14   7.1   3.9
 10250  -3.4  25.9  220  21 11   7.8   4.3 |  -2.8  27.0  225  25 13   7.2   3.9
 10000  -2.8  27.0  220  20 10   8.4   4.6 |  -2.3  27.9  220  24 12   7.4   4.0
  9750  -2.2  28.0  220  18  9   7.5   4.1 |  -1.7  28.9  220  23 12   8.0   4.4
  9500  -1.7  28.9  220  17  9   7.3   4.0 |  -1.1  30.0  215  22 11   8.4   4.6
  9250  -1.1  30.0  220  15  8   7.6   4.2 |  -0.5  31.1  210  20 10   8.0   4.4
  9000  -0.6  30.9  215  14  7   8.6   4.7 |   0.0  32.0  210  19 10   7.6   4.1
  8750   0.1  32.2  220  13  7   9.2   5.1 |   0.6  33.1  205  18  9   8.7   4.8
  8500   0.8  33.4  220  13  7   8.9   4.9 |   1.3  34.3  205  18  9   9.8   5.4
  8250   1.4  34.5  220  12  6   9.6   5.2 |   2.0  35.6  205  17  9   9.2   5.0
  8000   2.2  36.0  220  12  6   9.9   5.5 |   2.7  36.9  205  17  9  10.7   5.9
  7750   2.9  37.2  220  11  6   9.2   5.0 |   3.5  38.3  205  16  8  10.4   5.7
  7500   3.5  38.3  220  11  6   8.7   4.8 |   4.2  39.6  205  16  8   8.7   4.8
  7250   4.2  39.6  220  11  5   9.3   5.1 |   4.9  40.8  205  16  8   9.2   5.1
  7000   4.9  40.8  220  10  5  10.0   5.5 |   5.6  42.1  205  15  8   9.6   5.2
  6750   5.7  42.3  225  10  5   9.8   5.4 |   6.3  43.3  205  14  7   9.9   5.4
  6500   6.4  43.5  225  10  5   9.9   5.5 |   7.0  44.6  205  14  7  10.0   5.5
  6250   7.2  45.0  225  10  5  10.4   5.7 |   7.8  46.0  205  13  7   9.6   5.3
  6000   8.0  46.4  225   9  5  10.6   5.8 |   8.4  47.1  205  13  6   9.1   5.0
  5750   8.7  47.7  225   9  4  10.4   5.7 |   9.1  48.4  205  12  6   9.8   5.4
  5500   9.5  49.1  225   8  4   9.9   5.4 |   9.8  49.6  200  10  5   8.6   4.7
  5250  10.2  50.4  225   9  4   8.7   4.8 |  10.3  50.5  205  10  5   4.6   2.5
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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