Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 171858
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...VALID 18Z FRI MAY 17 2013 - 00Z SUN MAY 19 2013...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 NW MBG 35 SSW KHZE 20 ENE KHZE 10 W K46D 10 WNW RDR
20 WSW FSE 20 NE PKD 10 SW PWC ADC 10 ENE MOX 15 NNE VVV
20 SW 8D3 30 N HON 20 NNW 9V9 45 SE PHP 10 S PHP 50 SW MBG
40 NW MBG.


...ND/SD...

A VERY COMPLEX FCST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST... AS SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS EMERGE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND INTERACTS WITH AN ACTIVE LL
JET/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FOR THE START OF A CONVECTIVE HEAVY
RAIN EVENT. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL SD AND RAPIDLY PUSH DOWNSTREAM TOWARD ERN ND/NRN MN BEFORE
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WRN STATES EMERGES OUT INTO
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SAT AFTN/EVENING. THIS FCST HAS
PLENTY OF WRINKLES AND UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT BUT ENOUGH OF THE
GUIDANCE PINPOINTS 2 TO 3 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WITHIN THE SLIGHT AREA
TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE FFG IS
MARGINAL BUT KNOWING THE HISTORY/CLIMO FOR THE REGION WITH SOME
FLOODING ISSUES OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS FROM SNOW MELT... WPC
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS.

MUSHER
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