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000
FXUS63 KICT 170435
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1135 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

PUT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL KS. THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST. WHILE WE ARE EXPECTING THE WEAKENING TREND TO
CONTINUE...FEEL IT SHOULD AFFECT AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES OVER
CENTRAL KS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT A GUST TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

TONIGHT: UPPER LOW IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS OVER ERN OK AT THIS
TIME...WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE LEADING TO SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MO. THINK MOST
OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WANE OR END AFTER SUNSET..BUT COULD SEE
A FEW SHOWERS TRY AND SNEAK INTO SE KS BEFORE SUNSET. MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER THREAT OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR AREAS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-135 WHERE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE
LOCATED.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
AS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE CONVECTION THREAT WELL TO THE NW OF
THE AREA OVER NW KS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THIS
CONVECTION MIGHT FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AS IT DRIFTS EAST
LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY ON FRI. CURRENT MESOSCALE HRR-3KM
SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MOVE TOWARDS CEN KS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL RUN INTO A MORE CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AS IT
MOVES ALONG I-70.  BUT THINK ONLY SOME REMNANTS SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT
AS IT MOVES INTO CEN KS...SO WILL GO WITH A SMALL POP FOR NOW...WITH
A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE GIVEN THE STRONG CAP.

FRI-SAT: THE MAIN STORY FOR FRI/SAT...WILL BE THE COMBINATION OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGING
KEEPING A LID ON ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE FAVORED WELL TO THE WEST OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHERE VERY WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE MAY
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE
A FEW STORMS MOVE OFF OF THE DRYLINE AND TRY TO MAKE IT INTO CEN
KS LATE SAT NIGHT...BUT THE FURTHER EAST THEY GO...THE MORE CAPPED
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME. SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO MAKE IT TOO
FAR INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE QUALITY OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS
KANSAS THIS PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING RICH
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM AND VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

SUN-MON: A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO MAKE
SOME PROGRESS FURTHER EAST CLOSER TO THE AREA FOR SUN. AND EVEN
FURTHER EAST FOR MON.

SO THE END OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
PERIOD...AS A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF THIS
DRYLINE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 55-65 KTS ON
SUN...WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED ROTATING
STORMS.  LIMITING FACTOR FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON
SUN WILL BE WARM TEMPS ALOFT CAPPING OFF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT
THINK AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA...THIS WILL HELP WEAKEN THE
CAP ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.  SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE DRYLINE
WILL BE LOCATED...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...WHILE THE
GFS PLACES THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IF
STORMS CAN GET GOING SUN AFTN/EVE...THEN ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER
COULD BE POSSIBLE....EVEN A FEW TORNADOES.  THIS MAY BE OF GREATER
CONCERN FOR SUN AFTN...AS QUITE A FEW OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR
GRADUATION CEREMONIES MAY BE ONGOING OR PLANNED.

SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR MON...WITH
MOST OF ERN KS UNDER THE GUN AS ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE
OVER SOUTHEAST KS INTO SW MO. BEST CHANCES FOR SVR WEATHER ON MON
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME SE KS AND OK...BUT UNSTABLE AND
BULK SHEAR STILL SUGGESTS ALL VARIETIES OF SVR WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THIS DAY AS WELL.

REST OF THE EXTENDED: EXPECT DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS TO
MOVE IN FOR TUE INTO WED. SO MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A COUPLE OF
NICE DAYS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU....WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
RETURN OF STORM CHANCES FOR THE SRN HALF OF KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING.

MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT STILL THINKING THAT CIGS WILL LOWER GENERALLY
AFTER 09Z ACROSS MOST AREAS. DID TEMPO SOME IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z BUT
CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR VISIBILITIES WILL DROP. IF
THEY ARE LIKE LAST NIGHT THEY WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SITES DROP TO LESS
THAN 2SM AT TIMES EARLY FRI MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT BY 16Z.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  82  67  86 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  83  66  87 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          64  81  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        64  81  67  87 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  81  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         62  84  65  90 /  70  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  83  65  91 /  50  10  10  10
SALINA          63  84  67  87 /  30  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       62  83  66  86 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  82  68  87 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         66  81  67  86 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  81  67  86 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    65  81  67  87 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$