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000
FXUS63 KICT 160130
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
830 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

BASED MOSTLY RADAR TRENDS...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OUT OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. DID LEAVE SOME OVER SE KS BUT MAY END UP
CUTTING THESE OUT EVENTUALLY AS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WAS DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

TONIGHT: THE WEAK IMPULSE ACROSS ERN OK WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER SRN KS INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SOME NE
DEVIATION MAY ALSO LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE ICT METRO FOR
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BUT OVERALL...MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
TURNPIKE/ I-135 WILL STAY DRY TONIGHT. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH TONIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. SO WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION WEST OF I-135 WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE EFFECTS MAY LEAD TO SOME 3-5 MILES AND FOG.

THU-FRI: NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST FOR THU AS A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER KEEPS A CAP ON
ANY CONVECTION. COULD SEE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SE
KS...AS THE IMPULSE IN OK LINGERS OVER SW MO.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SIGNAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIME OVER NW KS LATE THU AFTN/THU EVE. STILL SEEING
SIGNALS THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP INTO SOME SORT OF E-SE
MIGRATING COMPLEX OF STORMS (MCS) LATE THU NIGHT...ALONG THE 700H
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. LATEST GFS IS ACTUALLY SHOWING REMNANTS
FROM THIS MCS DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS KHUT/KICT BY EARLY FRI
AM...BUT UNLESS A LARGE COLD POOL DEVELOPS...THINK THIS COMPLEX WILL
BE COMING TOWARDS SOUTH CEN KS TO DIE. WILL INCREASE POPS SOME IN
CEN KS...FOR AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE EFFECTS FROM THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS.

THE WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AS WELL ON
FRI...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.  COULD
SEE SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS OR EVEN SOME REMNANT SHOWERS AS PREVIOUS
NIGHTS MCS REMNANTS PUSH ACROSS SRN KS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

SAT-MON: THE WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION MOVES INTO
THE WRN US AND ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES BY SAT MORNING. THIS PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE THE ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS FOR MOST AREAS AS THE RICH
GULF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCATED OVER
MOST OF SOUTH CEN KS AND OK. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW SAT WILL
EVOLVE AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY KEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA
ROTTED ALONG THE DRYLINE... EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KDDC. BUT COULD
SEE A FEW ISOLATED SVR STORMS VENTURE EAST INTO WRN SECTIONS SAT
EVENING. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH ADEQUATE
SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS AND A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.

THE MOST ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY STILL LOOKS TO BE SUN AND
POSSIBLY MON...AS THE DRYLINE WILL BE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
JUST EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE BIG DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS SHOWING
INCREASING BULK SHEAR TO 60-70 KTS ACROSS SRN KS AND OK...ALMOST
PERPENDICULAR TO THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH ALL FORMS OF SVR
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY OVER OK AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN KS. STAY TUNED.

A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN ON HOW MON WILL PLAY OUT...AS POSITION OF
THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WILL BE IN QUESTION. BUT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER SEVERE OUTBREAK DAY FOR THE ERN HALF OF KS/WRN MO AS THE
DRYLINE WILL BE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE.

REST OF THE EXTENDED: SOME MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW
TUE/WED WILL PLAY OUT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE PLAINS
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND POSSIBLY
STALLING...AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE KEEPS SLOWS THINGS DOWN.
CERTAINLY LOOKS COOLER THAN THE END OF THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...WITH MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN OK
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE
ISN`T MUCH SURFACE REELECTION WITH THIS UPPER LOW WITH LEE
TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUING STREAMING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THU MORNING. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT MORE STRATUS THAN FOG. WILL NOT RUN WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR YET...BUT OF 00Z MODELS STAY THE COURSE...MAY INSERT
SOME IFR CIGS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  81  64  82 /  20  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      63  81  63  83 /  10  10  20  10
NEWTON          63  81  64  82 /  10  10  20  10
ELDORADO        63  81  64  82 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  80  66  82 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         61  83  62  84 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      62  83  63  83 /  10  20  20  10
SALINA          63  83  63  83 /  10  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       63  82  62  83 /  10  10  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     63  79  65  83 /  60  20  10  10
CHANUTE         62  78  66  81 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            62  78  66  81 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    63  79  65  82 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$