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000
FXUS63 KICT 231259
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
759 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

SCT TSRA MOVG E30KTS HAVING VENTURED OVER WRN KINGMAN HAVE PROMPTED
AN UPDATE TO APPLY COVERAGE DESCRIPTOR (SCT TSRA) & TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASE QPF TO SC KS TIL 15Z. REMAINDER OF INHERITED FCST ON TRACK
& THEREFORE KEPT INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
RICH 850 MB MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LONG ROUTE
OF THE RIO GRANDE. ESTIMATES ARE THAT THE EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE
COULD REACH OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF
WEAK IMPULSES...ONE PRESENTLY OVER CO/NM...WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION TODAY WITH SOME ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURRING OVER OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ANY STORMS
DEVELOPING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD POSE A HAIL
THREAT...GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ELEVATED CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND W-NWRLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF 45 KT. A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST FROM
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OK CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KS FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THRU WITH STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION. FOR SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS HINT AT MCS
ACTIVITY ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE MORE
ISOLATED AND SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION RAPIDLY INCREASING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-30 MPH EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OVER THE AREA.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON A DAILY BASIS...WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN
PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DRYLINE...AND WITH NIGHTLY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JETS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (20-40%) OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA. THE PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER TOWARD MID-LATE WEEK ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE EJECTION TIMING OF A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY OUT
OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AT TAF ISSUANCE AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY NWD DEVELOPMENT FROM SVR
+TSRA MOVG E30KTS OVER CNTRL OK AS AIRMASS OVER SC & SE KS CAPPED
PLUS LOW-LVL JET IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. SCT --RA OCCURRING FROM
KRSL-KGLD SHOULD DISSIPATE IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ALL TERMINALS TO
MAINTAIN VFR STATUS AS NLY WINDS ~10KTS GRADUALLY BECOME NE/E ~15
KTS BY 18Z. SCT TSRA POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY SW & WRN KS TONIGHT
AS LWR-DECK FLOW BECOMES MORE SSELY & INCREASES TO ENABLE RICHER
LWR-DECK MOISTURE TO MIGRATE N FROM W TX TO ALONG KS/CO BORDER &
WITH SW MID-LVL FLOW THE SCT TSRA MAY VENTURE AS FAR W AS KRSL &
KHUT ~09Z. THIS ISSUE WILL BE ADDRESSED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF
ISSUANCES (ESPECIALLY THE 00Z & 06Z EDITIONS.)


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  57  76  64 /  20  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      73  57  76  65 /  20  30  40  30
NEWTON          72  56  74  64 /  20  20  30  20
ELDORADO        73  55  75  63 /  20  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  57  77  64 /  30  20  30  20
RUSSELL         72  55  77  65 /  20  30  40  30
GREAT BEND      72  56  76  65 /  20  40  40  30
SALINA          73  52  77  65 /  10  20  30  30
MCPHERSON       73  56  75  65 /  20  20  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     75  55  78  60 /  20  20  20  20
CHANUTE         74  52  76  60 /  10  20  20  20
IOLA            74  51  76  59 /  10  20  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    75  54  76  60 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$