National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 170824
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
324 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A STRONG LOW REMAINS OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A
VERY SUBTLE BOUNDARY RESIDES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH DRIER LOWER 50S
DEWPOINTS IN OUR NORTH.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER WEAK BULK LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON MAY SPREAD INTO OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE SMALL POPS GENERALLY I-80 AND SOUTH.

A FEW DRY PERIODS ARE EXPECTED WHILE UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST
STRENGTHENS AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW MOVES ONSHORE. A SPOTTY
CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS SPREADS EAST ATOP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH MID WEEK...THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 90S FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. A FEW NOCTURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS STILL LOOK QUITE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE
ACTIVE WITH TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A SFC BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NOCTURNAL TSTMS
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KOFK...KLNK
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND MAY SEE SOME MID CLOUDS WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. DID
INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG AT KOMA AND KLNK. MAY SEE SOME TSRA
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT FOR NOW INCLUDED A PROB30.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office