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000
FXUS63 KOAX 222312
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
612 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD DROP TO MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SPOTTY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE
AND WAS ONGOING AT KOFK AT TAF ISSUANCE SO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY SCATTER OUT THURSDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

KERN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...

CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN WI WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS FOR THE FA OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE /CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/ SHIFTS EWD ON
THURSDAY WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN SEEN TODAY. THE BREAK FROM ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A MEAN WESTERN US TROUGH STARTS TO
DEVELOP WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE
WILL START TO RETURN TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY LEADING TO
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET BUT WILL LINGER SOME POPS INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS FOR LEFT OVER CONVECTION. SEVERE THREAT IS A BIT DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN WITH MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS STARTING AS EARLY AS
SAT...BUT IT IS LATE MAY AND THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SO ISO SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO WARM BACK TO SEASONABLE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THE EXTENDED WITH THE
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$