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000
FXUS63 KOAX 200823
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
323 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE NEB AND ERN SD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
BROAD Q-G FORCING FOR ASCENT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND NE NEB EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONT IN NE NEB WITH MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA DRY THIS MORNING. SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER
THIS AREA OF THE CWA /SW IA AND SE NEB/ THAT WILL STEEPING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THIS AREA AND THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 400-600 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER THE CNTRL
AND SRN CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA. SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY SEEMS
UNLIKELY...BUT WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
SHEAR SOME HAIL SEEMS POSSIBLE IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN TAKE
PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE THE SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE SETUP FOR TUESDAY ISN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON
TSRA AS THE LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE GETS DISPLACED TO THE
EAST AS CAA MOVES THROUGH THE FA BEHIND A SFC CDFNT ON MON NIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUE/WED. WE MAY
SEE AN ISO SHOWER IN THE NRN FA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT
THESE WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED.

THE LOW FINALLY STARTS TO SHIFT EAST ON THU WITH DRY WEATHER
RETURNING...BUT THIS WILL ONLY BE FOR A SHORT TIME AS LONGER RANGE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN A TROUGH TO THE
WESTERN US WITH WAA TYPE PRECIP DEVELOPING STARTING ON FRI AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE RETURN FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AS WELL.

BOUSTEAD

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

AN UPPER LOW FM NCNTRL NEBR INTO WRN SD WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND CIGS AT TIMES AROUND 1-2K FT AGL WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
SYSTEM TONIGHT...PROBABLY MAINLY JUST IMPACTING KOFK. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARED SURFACE WINDS ROTATING AROUND SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR TOWARD LNK AND OMA. HOWEVER...IF WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SOME FOG COULD FORM LATER
TONIGHT AT THOSE SITES. HEATING ON MONDAY COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. COVERAGE OF TSTMS MON AFTN
WAS UNCERTAIN AND ONLY A PROB30 IN SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED IN 06Z
FORECAST.

CHERMOK

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$