Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 191020 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 420 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 420 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Busy forecast this morning, dealing with the ongoing freezing drizzle and drizzle. This is currently covered with a winter weather advisory for minor ice accumulations up to 1/10 of an inch. At 4 am, the transition zone had moved south of Lincoln, across the Omaha metro area, toward Denison, IA. DOT road reports now showing that roads are beginning to ice over, generally in line when temps hit about 30 and lower. Extreme southeast NE and southwest IA remain quite balmy at 4 am, with temps in the mid 40s to near 50. On the northern edge near the SD border, it`s likely all snow with less than inch expected this morning. Precipitation winds down and ends altogether by Noon, and there should be several dry hours during the afternoon. Thus, winter weather advisory remains in effect this morning. The second round of precipitation develops tonight in response to the trough moving through the central Rockies. Again, there will be a wintry transition zone across the forecast areas from north to south. Northeast NE should have deep enough moisture to allow for 2 to 3" of snow north of a line from Neligh to Wayne. However, further south, the moisture profile is not deep enough to allow for ice crystals, and despite that, there remains a considerable amount warm air aloft over the shallow cold dome at the surface. Thus, expecting areas of precipitation to develop through the evening, with freezing rain developing. Southeast NE and southwest IA have the best chance of seeing significant icing accumulations from one to two tenths of an inch, generally east and south of a line from Beatrice to Red Oak, IA. In between along the I80 area, freezing drizzle will develop, which may eventually transition to some sleet through the night. Because of the additional icing expected, a new winter weather advisory was issued for most areas. Some light snow could linger in northeast NE Tuesday morning, but mostly, the freezing precipitation should end by 12-15z across the remainder of the area. Nevertheless, the Tuesday morning commute will again be very slippery. Winter weather advisory continues until 15z for most of the area, and 18z in northeast NE. Tuesday night and Wednesday are dry but cold. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 420 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Additional wintry precip chances Thursday, which could be snow in the north and rain/freezing rain in the south. And a couple more rain/snow chances both Friday and Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1112 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018 MVFR cigs will remain over eastern Nebraska TAF sites through Monday evening. Areas of Freezing Drizzle are expected to develop early in the period and continue through 15Z or so, and will cause some icing conditions SFC through cloud tops of FL050 in northeast Nebraska, but temperatures rise above freezing near FL030 across the KLNK and KOMA areas through 15Z. Occasional IFR cigs are likely where freezing drizzle is heaviest, and could affect all TAF sites. Gusty north winds 15 to 25kt will continue through 21Z, then decrease toward 15kt through the end of the TAF period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ012-015-017- 018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065-066-078. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ015-018-031>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078- 088>093. Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ067-068. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday for NEZ011-012-016-017. IA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ043-055-056. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091. Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ069-079.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Dergan

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