Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 090010 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 610 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 608 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016 HAVE ALLOWED WIND AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 6 PM. SNOW HAS ENDED IN SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES...AND WITH WINDS SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE THERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016 LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST. CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES ARE MINIMAL. WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016 ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 523 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WINDS AND IF ANY MVFR CIGS WILL SKIRT THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. CONTINUE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 28KTS BEFORE THE WINDS DIMINISH...TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDING THE MVFR CIGS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS KEEP IT TO THE EAST OF KOMA...WHILE OTHERS...BRING IT INTO KOMA FOR A FEW HOURS. FOR NOW WILL MENTIONS SOME MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...NONE. IA...NONE.
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&& $$ UPDATE...DERGAN SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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