Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 220456 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1156 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014 LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO CALM CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT STILL WELL SHY OF THE RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RECORD LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. PLEASANT WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE 22ND...THE START OF FALL. FALL BEGINS AT 929PM CDT. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOOK FOR INCREASING CIRRUS AND THEN MID CLOUDS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL OPEN UP OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND PUSH INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH RETURNS TO THE WESTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE THE PWAT AT KOFK TO AROUND AN INCH BY MIDNIGHT AT KOFK...BUT STILL ONLY AROUND .5 OF AN INCH AT KOMA. BOTH INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCH BY 12Z TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE RESIDES AT H750MB OR HIGHER. SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM STALLS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. THE STALLED SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERIODIC SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014 THE H5 LONGWAVE TROF WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GETS DISCONNECTED FROM THE STRONGER FLOW OVER CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT H5 TROF IS MOVING ONSHORE FRIDAY SO FORCING IS WEAK TO NIL. INITIALLY CARRY SOME ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE POPS...THEN THESE BECOME MORE AND MORE DRY. DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOCAL OFFICES HAVE GONE MAINLY DRY. STILL MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP WITH BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. AT 04Z KICL REPORTED 4SM BR FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE IMPROVING TO 10SM AGAIN. BETTER CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN RIVER VALLEYS. WINDS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH AROUND 15Z WHEN THEY BECOME SOUTH AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO LESS THAN 5KTS AFTER 01Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...MEYER

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