Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 221110 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 610 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 As a cold front pushes through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, it is ushering out showers and thunderstorms and bringing in a drier airmass. Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates broad upper- level trough over the upper Midwest, accompanied by an 80-95kt upper- level jet streak from the eastern Dakotas into northern ON. An 850mb low was centered on the northern ON/MB border, with a trailing cold front through MN/NE/western KS, and with moisture pooled ahead of the front. Surface low at 06Z was centered in southern Lake Superior, with cold front extending through WI/western IL/central MO and toward a secondary low in central KS. Just a few thunderstorms were lingering in southeast NE and southwest IA at 06Z. Main forecast concerns through Friday are a few spotty chances for showers/storms on Wednesday night through Thursday, with increasing chances Thursday night and Friday. The cold front moving through this early morning brings a much drier airmass, as well as a cool- down, for today through Wednesday. As surface to mid-level high pressure slides east of the area on Wednesday into Wednesday night, return flow will bring some moisture back into the High Plains to central NE and eastern SD. A few showers/storms may develop along this axis late Wednesday night, with slight chances continuing into Thursday. Warm/moist air advection will continue through Thursday and into Thursday night, with pretty decent model agreement on a shortwave trough riding around the upper-level ridge over the Rockies and dropping through the northwesterly flow across the central/northern Plains. The pairing of the two should allow a broader area of shower/storm development on Thursday night into Friday morning. While initiation and broader coverage are likely to be in central to western NE, remnant showers/storms are possible in the area, mainly from central to northeastern NE, and with the showers/storms potentially lingering north of I-80 in NE/IA on Friday. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 After the quiet weather this work week, more active weather is possible for the weekend into early next week, with temperatures remaining on the cooler side. An upper-level low is progged to deepen over the upper Midwest, with deep troughing along the Mississippi River to Ohio River valley areas, leaving the mid- Missouri River area in very meridional (north to south) flow. This pattern will reinforce the below-normal temperatures, and it also could channel a series of shortwave troughs through the area, with bouts of showers/storms as each wave passes. Timing any one of those periods is a bit of a bugaboo right now, so will let blend POPs ride, as they at least indicate a return to a wetter pattern && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 VFR conditions through period, except for some MVFR ceilings/fog at KOMA 12-13z, then again 23/10-12z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mayes LONG TERM...Mayes AVIATION...DeWald

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