Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 280901 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 301 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM. POCKET OF VERY WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY SEE TEMPS APPROACHING 70...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR DURING THE EVENING WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER IF MAV GUIDANCE STAYS CONSISTENT IN NEXT MODEL RUN. NOT AS WARM THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE NATION BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. ICE JAMS ON THE LOWER PLATTE RIVER CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FLOODING FROM WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN SARPY AND NORTHERN CASS COUNTY THIS MORNING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015 TIMING OF THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH 00Z MODELS SLOWING THE MOVEMENT INTO THE AREA FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. PRECIP TYPE ALSO COMES INTO PLAY AS A COLD FRONT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE LOW LEVELS AND PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW THERE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW DIMINISHES ON SUNDAY WITH SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE DAY. COLD AIR HANGS ON THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPS RETURN TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AS MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE WARM AIR RETURN WITH GFS SLOWER THAN THE EURO.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NAM/GFS TRY TO EXPAND THE MVFR CIGS SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE RAP KEEPS THEM NORTH OF SUX. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE RAP WITH THE LOW CLOUDS REMAINING NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND THIS WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-12KTS AT KOMA. SOUTHEAST FLOW 6-12KTS WILL BECOME SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WINDSHIFT. THE WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ARRIVES AT KOFK AROUND 17Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 15 TO 30KT WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS THEREAFTER. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL WORK INTO KOMA AND KLNK AREAS TOWARD 00Z. CLOUDS DO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY TRY TO WORK IN TOWARD KOMA AROUND 03Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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