Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 232001 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 301 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014 ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING COULD POSE AN IMPACT. AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS AREA CONTINUED TO SHRINK WITH ONLY A SMALL PATCH IN SCNTRL NEBR AT 1930Z. A WEAK WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEBR TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD HELP LIMIT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE STRATUS WILL EXPAND OR REDEVELOP OVER THE FA LATER THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 17Z HRRR/RAP INDICATED AREA WOULD MOST LIKELY BE NEAR MO RIVER AND INTO WRN IA ALTHOUGH FORMER MODEL HAD BEEN STEADILY DECREASING THAT NOTION LAST FEW UPDATES. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT NE AS SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE...ALTHOUGH A GOES FOG PRODUCT SIMULATOR FROM CSU SUGGESTED MUCH OF THE FA COULD GET SOCKED BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS IF NOT FOG TOO. ALTHOUGH ONLY A PATCHY FOG MENTION WILL BE MADE DUE TO THE INCREASED BLYR WINDS...DID INCREASE SKY COVER TONIGHT TO REFLECT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ST AND THEN A BIT ON FRIDAY AS MORE CI LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HOWEVER...AIRMASS WARMS INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK WAVE PASSES AND FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON ANY STRATUS MIXING OUT OR SHIFTING NE OF THE FA EARLY IN THE DAY. NO BIG CHANGE FROM PREV FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH DID BUMP UP MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY A BIT...MAINLY NORTH AS SHIFT TO NW WINDS COULD PROVIDE A BIT BETTER MIXING TO COUNTER WEAK COOL ADVECTION IN AFTN. SATURDAY STILL SHOULD BE COOLER THAN FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE MILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN NRN PLAINS BEHIND WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA. ALTHOUGH UPPER HGTS BEGIN FALLING ACROSS PLAINS SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH...MILD AIR SPREADS BACK NORTHEAST WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY PRODUCE MAX TEMPS AS WARM OR EVEN WARMER THAN FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME HINT AT STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING...KEPT READINGS A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW THOSE EXPECTED FRIDAY...MAINLY NORTH. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014 PASSAGE OF NEXT TROUGH APPEARS IT WILL BE A TOUCH SLOWER THAN IT LOOKED LIKE YDA. THIS SHOULD RESTRICT PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY WRN ZONES MONDAY BUT ALSO LINGER SOME CHC ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW POPS WERE KEPT IN SLGT CHC OR LOWER CHC RANGES. WITH THE DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAX TEMPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY. COOLER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY BEHIND TROUGH/FRONT IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MODEL SMOOTHING/BLENDING PRODUCED UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S MOST AREAS THOSE THREE DAYS...WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITH A WAVE ON WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN TEMPS AT LEAST A CATEGORY HIGHER THEN. ALSO MODELS HAVE SHIFTED COLDER ON THURSDAY BEHIND THIS NEXT WEAK WAVE. BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD WORK THEMSELVES OUT IN LATER FORECASTS IF TIMING REMAINS CONSISTENT.
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&& .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014 MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KLNK BUT SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 19Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AT KOMA/KLNK. AM THINKING THAT THERE IS SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT...BUT THAT COULD ALSO BE TEMPERED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT COULD SEE TEMPORARY MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT ALL THREE SITES FROM 07-14Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHERMOK LONG TERM...CHERMOK AVIATION...DEWALD

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