Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 211746 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1246 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014 PRECIPITATION EXITED SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SHORTLY AFTER NOON TODAY. POTENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT/PRECIP WAS CAUSING GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS ALL OF OUT AREA. DEEP MIXING WAS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO DRYING OF LOW LEVELS...AND DEW POINTS WERE DROPPING WELL INTO THE 20S. AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR A GOOD PART OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED OUR RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT DID NOT SEE MUCH RAIN YESTERDAY/THIS MORNING. STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF DRY FUELS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014 OTHER THAN LINGERING CONVECTION THIS MORNING MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH/LOW TAKES SHAPE NEAR CANADIAN/MT BORDER BY MIDWEEK. FOR TODAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUBBLE ACROSS FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS NEAR AN ONEILL TO ORD LINE AT 08Z. SHORT TERM 4KM WRF/HRRR/RAP TAKE IT EAST OF FA BY 18-19Z AND APPEARS FRONT WILL HAVE A DRY ENOUGH PUSH TO IT SO THAT IF REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITH HEATING IT WILL BE SE OF AREA. GIVEN UPSTREAM DWPTS AND GOOD MIXING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...APPEARS AT LEAST NRN ZONES WILL REACH EXTREME FIRE DANGER READINGS THIS AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS PERSIST. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS THE N. IF ANYTHING IT MAY HAVE BE EXPANDED THIS MORNING IF NAM DRYING COMES TO FRUITION FARTHER SE. LITTLE CHANGES TO PREV TEMPS WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO BOOST MOST READINGS AT LEAST INTO LOWER 70S TDA. DRY WEATHER THEN FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND PROBABLY TUESDAY EVENING AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS DOWN MO RIVER BEFORE SHIFTING EWD. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT AND A VERY SLOW RECOVERY...IF ANY...ON TUESDAY...LOWERED LOWS TONIGHT AND DWPTS A BIT ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO MAX TEMPS TUESDAY...THE LOWER DWPTS COULD AGAIN BRING INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS IF DWPTS WOULD LOWER A LITTLE MORE AND WINDS INCREASE A BIT QUICKER ON TUESDAY. THE DRY AIR COULD ALSO LIMIT COVERAGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT KEPT HIGH END CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS IN FORECAST FOR NOW. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT COULD LIFT MOSTLY N THRU E OF FCST AREA WED WHILE NAM KEPT IT MOSTLY TO THE WEST/SOUTH. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A LITTLE INCONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD AND NAM KEPT US MOSTLY ON THE COOLER SIDE...LEFT MAX TEMPS PRETTY MUCH ALONE WHICH WERE CLOSE TO A BLEND BETWEEN COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV. RESIDUAL CLOUDS/PRECIP AND FRONTAL LOCATION AMONG MOVING PARTS IMPACTING POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WED AFTN/EVENING AS WELL AS MOISTURE RETURN WHICH COULD ALSO IMPACT COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...DYNAMICS FROM SYSTEM ALONE APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN MOST AREAS WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS BE MOVED UP TO LATE AFTN PARTS OF WEST. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014 SOME INDICATIONS THAT A LEAD LOBE...IF NOT ENTIRE TROUGH/LOW AXIS ITSELF...WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. IF SO POPS MAY SHIFT EAST OF AREA AS WELL. IF ENOUGH ENERGY/MOISTURE REMAINS FARTHER WEST COULD SEE ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOP WITH HEATING AGAIN THURSDAY DESPITE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS COLD H5 THERMAL TROUGH PIVOTS OVER AREA AND MODERATE LAPSE RATES DEVELOP AS LOW LVL COLD ADVECTION NOT THAT STRONG YET. FOR NOW SPLIT DIFFERENCE LEAVING POPS IN ERN FA AND KEPT W DRY. AFTER A PROBABLE DRY FRIDAY...WHETHER PATTERN CAN REMAIN PROGRESSIVE PER 00Z ECMWF OR ATTEMPT AT LEAST A SHORT TERM BLOCK PER 00Z GFS SEEMED LIKE A TOSS-UP. THUS KEPT IN MODEL BLEND OF INCREASING POPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO CHANGES TO BLENDED TEMPS. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10KT BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051. IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.
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&& $$ UPDATE...DERGAN SHORT TERM...CHERMOK LONG TERM...CHERMOK AVIATION...DERGAN

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