Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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187 FXUS63 KOAX 242306 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 606 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016 Heat has finally broken, with temperatures closer to normal for several days to come. Subjective 12Z upper air analysis indicates a flattening upper-level pattern across the CONUS, with embedded shortwave troughs over ME, the northern Great Lakes, and the Rockies. An 850-mb trough extended from western ON through WI/IA/KS, with moisture pooled along and ahead of the trough. Behind it, drier air was advecting into the Plains. Surface high at 19Z was centered in southern to western SD. Main forecast concern is potential for showers/storms on Tuesday through Wednesday. In the meantime, as showers in southeastern SD and southeast NE/northeast KS move eastward, dry air should dominate in their wake at least through Monday. Showers/storms in northeast KS tonight into Monday morning could skim southeasternmost NE, but have leaned dry for now as drier air continues to filter into the area, with most models keeping all precip south of the border. Surface high pressure should slide through the area tonight into Monday, with moisture returning around its base into western/central NE on Monday night. Have kept precip out of all but the extreme northwestern CWA, under the moisture axis, before 12Z Tuesday. Solutions diverge on Tuesday regarding the potential evolution of convection in the Dakotas from Monday night into Tuesday morning, as well as on convective development on Tuesday afternoon and its evolution on Tuesday night. The more aggressive GFS brings widespread convection and possibly heavy rain to northeast NE on Tuesday evening/night, but ECMWF keeps convection further west and saves widespread convection for Wednesday. NAM brings convection on Tuesday evening/night, as well, but in a smaller and faster-moving batch that just skims eastern NE. Given uncertainties in evolution, did remove mention of heavy rain in the grids, as I am just not that comfortable getting specific about location and timing of any threat at this point. POPs range from chance to likely from Tuesday evening through Wednesday, but even so, confidence is on the low side. Did nudge temperatures downward a bit both Tuesday and Wednesday with potential for clouds and remnant/ongoing convection. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016 A largely unsettled pattern will continue through the weekend. It isn`t likely to be a washout, but with northwesterly upper-level flow, periodic shortwaves and associated showers/storms are possible through the period. Did try to tweak blend POPs at least down to slight chances in periods with less consensus on precipitation in the area, but confidence is low throughout the period. Temperatures should remain near to below normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016 Look for decreasing clouds this evening with VFR conditions through the period. Some fog is possible around sunrise...but chances are not high enough to mention in TAFs. Winds will become light and variable overnight...then increase from the south or southeast on Monday. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mayes LONG TERM...Mayes AVIATION...Miller

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