Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 291955 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 255 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(tonight through Sunday) Issued at 236 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Forecast area remains status quo in the short term as the upper low continues to spin across the Lower Ohio river valley. Main impact for us will be areal extent of cloud cover, which may increase as we head into the weekend as low level moisture increases. Surface ridge remains across the forecast area early in the period then begins to shift east. Nam/HRRR/SREF models all suggest some fog will develop tonight underneath the ridge where winds could go completely calm, thus will add some fog to the forecast. Will have to watch for locally dense fog in the Platte River valley. Models also hint at some patchy fog Friday night but will wait to add that later on. Low level clouds should increase from the east Friday night into Saturday. Models do hint at some sprinkles or drizzle possible across western Iowa, but really not confident there`s enough lift to generate any precip. Lows mostly in the 40s next few nights, highs in the lower 70s Friday and Saturday, and mid 70s Sunday as low shifts to the east and upper ridge builds back onto the Plains. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 236 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Upper ridge still in place Monday ahead of the next trough that is moving into the central Rockies. This should result in well above normal temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Precip chances begin to increase Monday night into Tuesday night as moisture increases, diffluent flow aloft develops, and dynamic height falls begin to impact the area. As usual, there are timing differences among the mainsuite models on timing Wednesday, with system north and east of the area by Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.) Issued at 1225 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Mesoanalysis as of 17z revealed a surface ridge axis from central Minnesota through eastern Nebraska into central Kansas. These data indicate an axis of higher low-level moisture content wrapping around a deep-layer cyclone over the Ohio Valley, and extending as far west as the mid Missouri Valley. This moisture has contributed to scattered cumulus at the top of the growing boundary layer, and will likely foster areas of fog formation late tonight into early Friday. The greatest potential for MVFR visibilities appears to be at KOFK and KOMA in the 30/09z-30/14z time frame. Otherwise, expect prevailing VFR conditions through the remainder of the forecast period. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Mead

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