Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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000
FXUS63 KOAX 162326
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
626 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very high fire danger will continue through 8pm this evening
for portions of northeast Nebraska and is likely again across
the entire area Sunday. We will keep a close watch for the
potential for some extreme fire weather conditions Sunday
afternoon but looks fairly marginal.
- Colder temperatures move in Sunday with overnight lows into
Monday morning falling into the teens to low 20s. Wind chill
values Monday morning will be in the single digits at times.
Temperatures gradually warm back up toward the latter half of
next week.
- Small chances for precipitation return beginning Wednesday night
with chances increasing into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
A cold Canadian airmass will dive south across the Dakotas overnight
bringing unseasonably cool temperatures to the region Sunday.
With gusty northwest winds of 30-35 mph and highs only in the
40s, wind chill values will be in the 20s and 30s through the
day Sunday. We have not quite managed to reach extreme fire
weather conditions this afternoon and with a cooler airmass
expected for Sunday, do not think we will be able to reach the
20% RH criteria for extreme fire danger on Sunday.
By Monday morning, a cold surface high pressure will build overhead
dropping Monday morning lows into the teens and 20s. With
northwesterly winds under 12 kts, wind chill values Monday
morning could drop into the single digits at times.
Northwesterly flow aloft is expected to persist through much of next
week while a southwestern CONUS upper low slowly weakens and ejects
into the southern Plains by mid-week. It still appears that much of
the beneficial moisture associated with this low will remain well to
our south. Temperatures should remain near-normal or slightly above
normal until later in the week when the pattern looks to become
more active. Upper level flow over the central CONUS becomes
southwesterly as a deepening western trough moves onto the
Pacific coast next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
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Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period, with gusty
winds at 25 kts out of the northwest still holding on for the
next hour or two. The few clouds that exist now should gradually
decrease this evening with an increasing amount around 14z
tomorrow morning. Some of those clouds may even hang around
FL030 and cloud have a sprinkle or two out of them. Otherwise,
winds will once again increase out of the northwest with gusts
generally ranging from 25 to 30 kts through 00z tomorrow
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&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...Petersen