Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 010516 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1216 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014 GIVEN LATEST TRENDS OF SD SFC LOW...SVR THREAT OVER THE NRN CWA FOR THIS AFTN/EVENING LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AT PRESENT SFC LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WRN SD WITH MOISTURE FEED RUNNING UP THE MO VLY REGION INTO THE SYSTEM. THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS TAKING THE POTENT UPPER LVL VORT MAX/SFC REFLECTION TRIPLE POINT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. HOWEVER...CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATER ON...THUS WILL HAVE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN SMALL POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOVING ON...NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND NEXT COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. BOTH NAM/GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SFC BNDRY WILL STRETCH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ERN CO...AND SHOULD BE STAGNANT THRU THE DAY DUE TO PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT. BY WED NIGHT THOUGH...A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL ACT TO HELP DISPLACE THE SFC FRONT EWD...AND IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TO ERN OK BY THUR AFTN. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE ARW/NMM BEST REFLECTS ANTICIPATED PROGRESSION OF PCPN ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME...THUS HAVE GEARED POPS ACCORDINGLY. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL WED AFTN...STOUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ON HAND. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM/GFS SEEM TO FAVOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STILL AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 COULD SEE STRONG/NEAR SVR STORMS. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL...GIVEN SLOW NATURE OF PASSING BNDRY COUPLED WITH PROLONGED VERTICAL ASCENT...IT IS QUITE PROBABLE A FEW LOCATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL EXPERIENCE HEFTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY EVENTS END THURSDAY AFTN. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED PDS AS BOTH GFS/ECM MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS...EXPECT INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THUS ALLOWING FOR A RATHER NICE FALL TYPE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014 IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KOFK...BUT BACK TO VFR BY 17Z. TSRA WILL AFFECT KOMA/KLNK THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...THEN SHOWERS AT KOMA TIL ABOUT 14-15Z. THEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KLNK/KOMA...BACK TO VFR BY 17Z...AND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT KLNK/KOMA BY 22Z-02Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ066>068-078-088>093. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...DEWALD

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