Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 252018 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 318 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- Periods of snow and 35-45 mph wind gusts will lead to dangerous travel in portions of Knox and Antelope counties into Tuesday morning. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect. - The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include a larger portion of eastern Nebraska and a small part of west- central Iowa for a mixture of snow and freezing rain overnight into Tuesday morning. - Dry weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures trending back up into the 50s and 60s by Thursday into the weekend.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Late this afternoon into Tuesday: Early afternoon water vapor imagery depicts a significant midlevel trough over the central and southern Plains with an embedded low situated over central KS. That low is forecast to track through southeast NE tonight before weakening into an opening wave. In the low levels, an associated cold front was progressing through far southeast NE and southwest IA as of 2 PM with a loosely organized band of showers and thunderstorms ongoing along and immediately behind the surface front over southwest IA. The strongest storms within that regime will be capable of small hail through 4 or 5 PM. Outside of the convection in southwest IA, any meaningful precipitation has either shifted to the north of the region, or is located across western KS in the vicinity of the above- mentioned midlevel low. As the low continues northeast this evening into tonight, expect the ongoing snow over KS to also lift north into central and portions of eastern NE. It still appears that there could be a mix of freezing rain and/or sleet on the eastern edge of the snow, and as such, the Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include more of eastern NE and a small part of west-central IA for the potential for slippery road conditions tonight through the Tuesday morning commute. Snow and ice accumulations overnight remain somewhat uncertain due to the anticipated showery nature of the precipitation. In general, an additional 1 to 3" of snow appears likely near the SD border with amounts decreasing with southeastward extent across the area. Ice accumulations will range from a trace to upwards of 0.05". Winds will remain strong with gusts of 35-45 mph with the greatest potential for blowing snow and resultant reduced visibilities expected near the SD border where more snow has fallen. Light snow is expected to taper off from west to east Tuesday morning with highs ranging from the mid to upper 20s over northeast NE to upper 30s to around 40 across portions of southeast NE and southwest IA. Wednesday through Sunday: The 12z global models are in good agreement in suggesting that the current troughing over the central part of the nation will be gradually replaced by a low-amplitude ridge, which will build into the Great Plains later this week. That midlevel pattern evolution will lead to considerable low-level warming across the mid-MO Valley, especially from Thursday into Friday. By Friday, the models suggest that a front will move south through the region with slightly cooler conditions expected by Saturday. The forecast will indicate a chance of rain Sunday; however there`s considerable model variability in the large-scale pattern.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 A surface cold front is expected to reach KOMA by 18z with south winds switching to northwest. A narrow band of showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely to affect that terminal site for the next 1-2 hours. Elsewhere, light showery precipitation (a mix of snow and some freezing rain) is ongoing across portions of northeast NE. Precipitation timing, type, and duration are all very challenging at KOFK. Have opted to indicate prevailing light snow, but acknowledge there could be periods of no precipitation or some light freezing rain that could be mixed with the snow. The precipitation type and timing challenges continue into tonight at all locations. In general, the forecast will indicate a transition from rain to snow between 26/05-26/07z at KLNK and KOMA with the precipitation ending after 26/12z. Winds will remain strong from the northwest with IFR ceilings tonight transitioning to MVFR Tuesday morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NEZ012-015- 017-018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NEZ011-016. IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for IAZ043.
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&& $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Mead

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