Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 281117
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
617 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected through the week with warming into the
  60s and 70s by Friday.

- Chances (40-70%)for precipitation return to the region late
  this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Today through Saturday...

Quiet weather prevailed overnight as scattered cloud cover filtered
into northeast Nebraska. Temperatures dipped into the 20s and 30s
across the forecast area with light and variable winds.

An upper ridge will build into the central CONUS today and Friday,
advecting warmer air back into the region. Highs on Thursday will
generally top out in the mid 50s and 60s. Friday will be even
warmer, reaching the mid to upper 60s across most of the CWA, with
70s expected over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

A weak shortwave and cold front will pass through the region Friday
evening, allowing cooler air to filter back in for Saturday.
Temperatures are forecast to top out near normal, rising to the 50s
across the forecast area.

Sunday and Beyond...

Our next chance for widespread precipitation arrives Sunday and
continues into early next week, as a trough moves into the Central
Plains. Discrepancies remain amongst the different deterministic
model solutions in regards to precipitation types and timing. While
the GFS indicates a stronger closed upper low moving through the
region, dropping a significant amount of wintry precipitation,
the ECMWF is slightly drier, weaker, and quicker with the
precip. Once again, we opted to stick with model blended PoPs
and precipitation types, given the high amount of uncertainty
this far out. But we will be keeping a close eye on how this
storm evolves over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites through the period,
with passing mid to high clouds. Winds should remain under 10
kts out of the southeast to southwest. Expect some low level
wind shear at OMA and LNK tonight with relatively light southeast
surface winds and 40 kt southwest winds at about 1500 ft agl.
Finally, guidance once again suggests fog development over the
snowpack in northeast NE (northwest of OFK) tonight/early
Friday, but very little has developed this morning, so
confidence in this occurring is rather low at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CA


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