Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 282001 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 301 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015 DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH TIMING OF PCPN AND QPF FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN THE BEST THE PAST FEW DAYS. 12Z RUNS OF THE HIRES ARW AND HIRES NMM WERE GIVEN THE MOST WEIGHT ALONG WITH RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR. CURRENT ACTIVITY IS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT TIED TO A WEAK VORT MAX/ SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE CIRCULATION COULD BE SEEN IN REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS TRACKING OVER WESTERN IOWA. LOOK FOR MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TOO MOVE OFF OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING...SO LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE INTENSITY OF THAT ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN. IT SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 60 TO 65. FRIDAY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING. MORE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY 70S BUT SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF NORFOLK. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA. SOME SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR DRYING AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...AND LAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD REACH 65 TO 70...THEN 69 TO 73 ON SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015 THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT AS MAINLY DRY AS A MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. RIPPLES MOVING OUT OF THIS TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE NOT ZERO...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE POPS AT LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OR LESS FOR THOSE PERIODS. DID BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS INTO ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN MAINLY CHANCE POPS ALL OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT 55 TO 60 THEN MODERATE TO LOWER AND MID 60S. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S MONDAY THEN MAINLY UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015 AVIATION FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EAST COLORADO AS OF 17Z WAS PUMPING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH INTO EAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. HAVE ADDED VCSH TO KLNK AND KOMA AND NOT INCLUDED THUNDER AT THIS TIME. VFR TO MVFR EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THOUGH A STRAY THUNDERSTORM MAY HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH...HAVE NOT ATTEMPTED TO BRING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST UNTIL AROUND 12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA AND KLNK...WHEN ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS TAF SITES BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...MEYER

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