Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 162151 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 351 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018 ...Potential for Some Freezing Drizzle Late This Weekend into Monday Morning... Forecast concerns in the short term will be temperatures, winds and precipitation/precipitation type associated with the storm system Sunday night into Monday. Below normal temperatures today, however the sunshine and light winds don`t make it feel too bad outside. Surface high pressure at 20Z was centered near Manhattan, Kansas and southwest winds were already picking up across parts of eastern Nebraska. Temperatures were in the 20s and 30s and the normal high is around 38 degrees. GOES16 visible satellite imagery showed a few cirrus clouds, otherwise, the snowpack was visible from central Nebraska into northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa. One to 6 inches is still on the ground across northeast Nebraska and northwest iowa. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a split flow regime with a storm system over the southwest U.S. and moisture streaming from Mexico into AZ/NM into the Southern Plains. The imagery also shows shortwave move through the Pacific Northwest into MT/WY. Energy from the southwest system moves quickly toward the Tennessee River Valley Saturday while the storm system in the northwest quickly shifts toward the Great Lakes. The forecast area is in-between these systems, however with the south flow, warmer temperatures are forecast for Saturday along with some increasing clouds. Some flurries or sprinkles may skirt the northeast part of the forecast area in west central Iowa late tonight. A wind shift and cold front moves through later Saturday...30 to 40kt northwest winds aloft are forecast, however these are dampened out with winds more in the 15 to 25kt range Saturday afternoon. Highs Saturday should be in the 30s to lower 50s. Even warmer temperatures and more wind are predicted for Sunday ahead of a cold front with h85 winds increasing to 50 to 70kts as the mid level trough in the west deepens with southwest flow aloft developing. Highs Sunday should range from the upper 40s to the lower 60s with 20-30kts winds from the south. Sunday night...cold air moves in, however surface low pressure develops in Colorado and moves along the front into northern Kansas and toward southeast Nebraska/northwest Missouri. Temperatures will be very important as drizzle is possible Sunday night and early Monday. Forecast soundings show freezing drizzle possible over parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. At this time accumulations would be a trace to tenth of an inch. A little light snow is possible in northeast Nebraska and with instability in southeast Nebraska did include a shower mention with isolated thunder. Lows Monday morning vary from 15 near the South Dakota border to the mid 40s in the south. If traveling Sunday night into Monday...will need to keep abreast of the latest forecast. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 330PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018 The longwave trough seems fairly stagnant through the extended with perturbations through the flow and no significant weather systems. Below normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday with near normal highs for Thursday and Friday. There is a chance for light snow Monday night then a chance for a little light rain Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1108 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018 VFR conditions are forecast through Saturday morning with increasing mid and high level cloudiness spreading overhead after 00Z. Low level jet is expected to increase overnight as well, causing Low Level Wind Shear at all sites beginning 03Z at KOFK and by 07Z and KOMA and continuing through 14Z. Southwest winds up to 45kt at FL020 are forecast. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Zapotocny LONG TERM...Zapotocny AVIATION...Dergan

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