Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 082006 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 306 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014 IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WX IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS FM WRN SD INTO WRN KS WILL DEVELOP EWD TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID MO RVR VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EWD THOUGH TOMORROW AND ALLOW FOR WAA TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND MAY BE AN ISO SHRA OVER THE WRN CWA BY AFTN. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND A COOL START WE HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS A TOUCH FOR WED. WAA WILL FURTHER INCREASE ON WED NIGHT AS A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER WRN KS. THIS WILL INCREASE THETA-E ADVECTION AND MASS CONVERGENCE IN A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN NEB INTO ERN KS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA FM NEB INTO KS STARTING ON WED EVENING AND THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY AXIS STAYS TO OUR WEST WITH OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE BETTER FORCING. THUS WILL INCREASE POPS BUT KEEP THEM JUST SHORT OF LIKELY AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO SHIFT SWD INTO KS ON THU MORNING WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THRU THE DAY. WE WILL CONT TO SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THU...BUT IT DOES LOOK WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE INCREASING H85 TEMPERATURES. THE NAM/GFS/EC/GEM ALL HAVE A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE INTO ERN SD AND NORTHERN NEB THU EVENING AND CONT TO DROP SEWD THU NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA BY LATE THU EVENING. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AOA 1.75 INCHES ON THU NIGHT AND CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATING SOME BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN WRN IA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONT INTO FRI MORNING BUT AGAIN WE SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DECREASING POPS IN THE E THRU THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONT TO TREND TOWARD NORMAL ON FRI WITH HIGHS ABOVE 90 LIKELY IN THE SOUTH BY THEN. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014 GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN THE PLACEMENT OF A FRONT NEAR THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME NOCTURNAL TSRA ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOESN`T APPEAR TO PROVIDE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW...AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES GIVEN PERIODIC CONVECTION LEAD TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF RA...SO HAVE INCLUDED SEVERAL PERIODS OF SMALL POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST MODELS AGREE THOUGH THAT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SHROTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRY WX FOR MON/TUE. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...DEE

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