Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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307 FXUS63 KOAX 240849 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 349 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017 Pocket of warm temperatures at 850mb remains over the region this morning with strong southerly low-level jet. We should be able to mix out fairly well after sunrise with highs approaching the mid to upper 70s for most locations. A surface cold front over the Dakotas continues to separate a very chilly airmass to our north from the very mild airmass that remains over us. A weak but progressive upper level trough will continue to move northeast across the Northern Plains today which will allow the cold front over the Dakotas to drop through the forecast area tonight. A few of the CAM`s do develop some light QPF across northeast Nebraska ahead of the boundary this morning, but point forecast soundings indicate a very dry environment and thus may see a sprinkle or two but no accumulating pcpn is anticipated. A better chance of showers moves into the area early Tuesday morning and becomes likely during the day Tuesday and Tuesday night as the boundary stalls ahead of a strengthening upper shortwave. This boundary begins to become more active and push southeast into Kansas and Missouri with overrunning pattern developing north of the front as the strengthening upper trough approaches the Central Plains. Parts of northeast Nebraska could see a mix of rain and snow for a time late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before ending. Temperatures will be sharply colder behind the front Tuesday with blustery northwest winds gusting over 25 mph. High temperatures across northeast Nebraska/west central Iowa will top out in the upper 40s. Clouds and wind should inhibit any frost formation on Wednesday morning. We will be mentioning patchy frost for Thursday morning with pockets of freezing or slightly below freezing temperatures across northeast Nebraska with both diminishing winds and clouds. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017 Pattern is forecast to remain cool and wet through the weekend as a series of upper troughs track across the Central Plains. Most significant system will impact much of the region over the weekend with widespread showers. There does remain the potential for snow associated with this system but track and speed of the system are likely to change over the next several model runs. Models do agree on painting a fairly stout stripe of QPF over the area.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Surface winds have slowly diminished since this evening owing to the gradual decoupling of the boundary layer. At the same time, a nocturnal low-level jet has strengthened with plan-view VWP data indicating 50+ kt south-southwest winds in the 1000-1500 m AGL layer across the central Plains. As a result, LLWS is expected to persist overnight at all three TAF sites. By mid morning on Monday, a deepening boundary layer will once again yield gusty south winds through the day. A cold front will move into the area from the north and northwest Monday evening with winds shifting to northwest at KOFK during that time frame. The front will eventually move through KOMA and KLNK later Monday night. Expect VFR conditions to prevail with persistent high-level cloudiness. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Mead

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