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000
FXUS63 KOAX 161231
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
731 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013


.AVIATION...

IFR CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 SM FG AT KLNK AND
KOMA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z. THEN
VFR CONDITONS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 00Z. AFTER 00Z...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KOFK...KLNK...AND KOMA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
VINCINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

SMITH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...

..MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CENTERS AROUND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TODAY...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OCCURRING OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A BROAD TROUGH MOVING
ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST. IN ADDITION...A CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH BELT OF WESTERLIES OVER THE
MIDWEST.

STRATUS DECK HAS QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY IT WILL ERODE THIS
MORNING IS HIGH. WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING AS WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD...WE MAY TAKE A WHILE TO MIX OUT
AND HEAT UP TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE IN UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE
OVER COLORADO. INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEB/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THIS REGION WILL
LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS A MCS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW FAR EAST IN OUR CWA TO
TAKE THE TSTM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH 00Z NAM
SUGGESTING NOTHING EAST OF I-29. WILL STILL BE COVERING MUCH OF THE
CWA WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS...ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS LOOK LESS LIKELY
THE FARTHER EAST THEY TRAVEL.

WITH THE BULK OF THE MCS ACROSS KANSAS BY SUNRISE MONDAY...EXPECTING
A DRY DAY MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST
MENTIONED A CHANCE IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THIS AREA AND MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME DEVELOPMENT SO WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE AS IS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE COMING IN TOWARD OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED POPS INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THIS RIDGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

KERN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$