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000
FXUS63 KOAX 141120
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
620 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH 15/12Z AS A
WIND SHIFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD TURN BRIEFLY WESTERLY
ALONG WIND SHIFT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY AND DECREASING AFTER IT
PASSES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...COVERAGE AND CHANCES APPEARED
TOO SMALL WITH 12Z ISSUANCE TO INCLUDE MENTION.

CHERMOK
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...

RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND FIRE WX ARE THE MAIN NEAR TERM
CONCERNS.

STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY. 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWED
+18C AT 850 MB AND PROGGED 12Z 850 MB TEMP IS AROUND +23. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 60S AT SOME LOCATIONS IN
NEBRASKA SO IT WILL BE A QUICK WARM UP INTO THE MID 90S BY THIS
AFTERNOON. FULL MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE REALIZED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THIS ALSO WILL MIX SURFACE DEWPOINTS OUT AND ONCE AGAIN HAVE
GONE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE WITH DEWPOINTS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ENCOUNTER PROBLEMS OF BEING OVERLY MOIST. WILL HOIST A RED FLAG
WARNING IN OUR SOUTHERN 3/4 OF CWA WHERE RH...FIRE WX FUELS...AND
WINDS WILL LIKELY MEET CRITERIA. HAVE LEFT OUT THE NORTHERN 1/4 BECAUSE
OF LACK OF STRONG ENOUGH WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS NEAR A
SURFACE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTH
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS QUITE
CAPPED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION NEAR THE BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE.

THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WEDNESDAY AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT IN THE 80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FEATURE. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SPREAD IT EAST
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A LARGER TROUGH AXIS WILL ROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY
SENDING LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG AND
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED
PCPN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO
THE AREA AND CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.

KERN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ015-018-031>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$