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000
FXUS63 KOAX 170439
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1139 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
RAP INDICATES SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA AND GRADUALLY ENDING THROUGH 09Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TSTM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN IS IN PLACE WITH 12Z UPPER AIR CHARTS AND
MOST RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE FOLLOWING. A TROUGH AT
500 MB CONTINUES TO DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST. A BROAD AREA OF 30 M
OR GREATER 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED FROM THE WEST COAST INTO
THE ROCKIES. MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDED FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS
BORDER BUT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. A SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
A VORT MAX OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN MCV WAS
ALSO PRODUCING SOME STORMS FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY CONGEALING INTO AN MCS THAT
SHOULD BE OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING. STORMS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA SHOULD TRACK EAST OR
NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z.

AFTER THE STORMS TONIGHT...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE
ACTION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. STORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER NORTH OF
WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN IOWA.
WENT WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO NAM MOS GUIDANCE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN THESE MAY SPREAD INTO
OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT POPS FAIRLY HIGH FOR OUR NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES THAT PERIOD. ALTHOUGH TIMING IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...WENT WITH A LOWER POP SUNDAY MORNING...THEN WENT BACK
TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THAT PERIOD MAY ALSO SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS AS NEGATIVE TILTED
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. A CLOSED LOW SHOULD FORM OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
AT THIS TIME. ALSO...SOME ENERGY WILL HOLD BACK FARTHER TO THE
WEST OVER WYOMING AND COLORADO. PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT ACTIVE
UNTIL MID WEEK...THEN MID LEVEL RIDGING SUGGESTS A DRIER PATTERN
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY...WHICH MAY SET OUR AREA UP FOR
ANOTHER ACTIVE SITUATION FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

MILLER

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOBERT