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000
FXUS63 KOAX 191141
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
641 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS TEMPS DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S...AS WELL AS FOR PRECIP TRENDS. CWA IS CURRENTLY
DRY...WITH SHOWERS JUST SOUTHEAST AND JUST NORTHWEST...AND BOTH OF
THOSE AREAS WEAKENING AS SHOWERS APPROACH. THINK CWA WILL LARGELY
BE DRY THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH DID HEDGE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE LATE MORNING IN CASE SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER
SNEAK INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE QUICK TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THIS
MORNING WITH RELATIVELY LOW CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS WILL RETURN
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MIXES
OUT. STILL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS - INCLUDING SEVERE - THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE
SHEAR PROFILES ARE BETTER.

MAYES

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.

COMPLEX FORECAST AGAIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS REGARDING TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN. MORNING SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
ACTIVITY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT A FAIRLY GENERIC MENTION OVER A
BROAD TIME SWATH...BUT THIS IS ONE OF THOSE CASES WHERE STORMS MAY
INDEED LINGER IN VICINITY OF AIRPORTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TIMING OF
STORMS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED THOUGH...AS SITUATION BECOMES MORE
CLEAR. STORMS WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO REDUCE VIS AND MAYBE
CEILINGS TO MVFR BRIEFLY...WITH GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT ARE LESS LIKELY TO CAUSE CATEGORY
RESTRICTIONS.

MAYES

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TO START OUT THE DAY EXPECT GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER ONCE LAST
NIGHTS CONVECTION LEAVES THE AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS
DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED ONCE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EAST INTO NEBRASKA THIS EVENING ALLOWING A SURFACE FRONT TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WHERE A
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS. HERE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES PUSH 50 KNOTS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THIS AREA IS LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOWER...BUT STILL REMAINS. AWAY FROM THE
MODERATE RISK AREA HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...HAVE
FAVORED HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE. ALSO TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON MONDAY AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S
ON TUESDAY. THEREAFTER THE COOLER WEATHER LINGERS UNTIL THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY DEPARTS ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IS ESTABLISHED
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...19/06Z FORECAST JUST CARRIED MENTION
THROUGH 10Z WITH INITIAL ROUND. AFTER THAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/LOWER RANGE MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING CAN IMPROVE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MIXING
FROM CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WOULD IMPACT THAT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

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