Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 250534 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1134 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014 GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STRATUS DECK AND FLURRIES PUSHING AWAY TO THE EAST. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH 500MB TROUGH AXIS FROM THE ONT/MB BORDER THROUGH WESTERN IA...AND WITH HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 180M CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH WINDS UP TO AROUND 165KT BEHIND THE TROUGH. 850MB CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN MI/EASTERN UP OF MI...WITH A FINGER OF -10C OR COLDER TEMPERATURES EXTENDING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB. AHEAD OF THE 850MB FRONT FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...UNUSUALLY WARM AND MOIST AIR AND 50KT OR GREATER WINDS WERE NOTED. SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN MI...WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WESTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S UNDER MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DESCEND OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO IA ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION. GFS IS A WET OUTLIER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH ECMWF/NAM/GEM PUSHING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...LEAVING JUST THE WESTERN FRINGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE PLAYED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM SOLUTION...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 06-12Z IN THE EASTERN CWA. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS BEFORE MIDNIGHT LIKELY WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR A MIX WITH SNOW...THEN CHANGING TO SNOW...GIVEN ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION THEN WOULD LIKELY BE MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL...ESPECIALLY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE KEPT SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR SNOWFALL FORECAST...WITH CURRENT FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A TENTH OR TWO IN NEB AND UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN WESTERN IA. GIVEN FAST-MOVING NATURE OF CLIPPER SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...LEAVING A COOLER DAY. MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO SHARPEN ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS HIGH PLAINS WARM...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AIDING TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. ANY POTENTIAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THAT GRADIENT LOOKS TO STAY WELL WEST OF THE CWA...WITH THANKSGIVING DAY REMAINING DRY AND ON THE COOL SIDE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014 TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK AT LEAST ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT FROM AROUND KS/MO TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT ENCOUNTERS MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE GULF...BUT FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THIS AREA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH DECREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. MID CLOUDS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. BY EVENING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE EVENING. SOME OF THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...MAYES AVIATION...KERN

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