Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 020814 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 314 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 AREA IS FAIRLY STABLE...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH SO FAR. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD BUT WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...AND BROAD BUT WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED NEAR THE AB/SASK BORDER...WITH WV IMAGERY INDICATING WAVE HAD SLID INTO ND. UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX WAS ONLY AROUND 80KT...LOCATED ACROSS MT/ND. 850MB MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED FROM WESTERN MN THROUGH WESTERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO...WITH 12C+ MOISTURE AXIS NOSING THROUGH EASTERN KS INTO EASTERN NEB. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO...WITH HIGH SILL IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE CWA. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CWA...BUT IT IS WORKING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. CONVECTION IS GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN WESTERN NEB...BUT THINK IT WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH CONTINUED DRIER AND STABLE EASTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE CWA. HAVE BACKED OFF POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA...AND HONESTLY THINK WESTERN IA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AND COULD STRUGGLE TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER...DO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/THUNDER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. POTENTIAL LINGERS IN AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO FRIDAY...WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW GIVING WAY TO WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT WITH 850MB GRADIENT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. NUDGED POPS UP JUST A TOUCH FOR FRIDAY...BUT MIGHT BE UNDERPLAYING PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL. MURKY PATTERN CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP UP...AS MODELS NOW INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES DO RAMP UP ON SUNDAY...THOUGH IT IS NO SLAM DUNK...AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE WESTERN CWA FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...BRINGING A MORE ROBUST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT...SHUNTING MOISTURE AND THUS PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. HAVE TRENDED DRIER ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY BUT ALSO ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL. SOME IFR CIGS COULD WORK INTO KLNK AND KOFK AS WELL. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE ALSO LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE FORECAST TO ROLL INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 12Z AS WELL...AFFECTING KOFK BY 14Z AND KLNK BY 18Z. A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO KOMA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 00Z OR SO AT ALL SITES...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS LIFTING TO VFR. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...MAYES AVIATION...DERGAN

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