Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 282320 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 520 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015 ENDING SNOW TONIGHT THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...AND WEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WERE STILL RUNNING LOWER THAN WAS THINKING YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION OCCURRING ON NORTHERN FRINGE ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 30 IN NEBRASKA AND INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA. SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND PUSH MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW OUT OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. MEANWHILE NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN STREAM AFTER CURRENT SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF NEBRASKA. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW THESE SHORTWAVES LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY. BUT CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING...ALLOWING SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPS TO NEAR FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...TRIGGERING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ATTENDANT MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD SPARK LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY. THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT...WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION POINTING RIGHT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT...AND MAY START OUT AS DRIZZLE MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE OMAHA AREA SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE NOSE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR OFF THE SURFACE...SUGGESTING RAIN IN OUR SOUTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME ALONG INTERSTATE 80 BEFORE TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARD. FARTHER NORTH...BAROCLINICITY WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE FROM THE NORTH. WHERE EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP 12Z TUESDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION...AND THUS A LARGE ZONE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A TIME TUESDAY MORNING. FRONT SHOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. CURRENT THINKING PLACES SOME ICING POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA GENERALLY FROM ALBION TO ONAWA AND NORTH. WHEN FRONT BEGINS ITS TREK SOUTH...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOULD LIMIT THOSE AMOUNTS TO AN INCH OR SO ALONG I-80 WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION SOUTH BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY EVENING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015 EXPECT LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO END TUESDAY EVENING ALL AREAS...THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR A DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEN WEAKLY RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HIGHS COULD EVEN TOUCH 50 IN PARTS OF OUR AREA. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 515 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015 MVFR CIGS AT AT KOMA/KLNK WILL CONT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THIS CLD DECK SHIFTS EWD OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE TAF SITES. FLURRIES WILL ALSO CONT TO BE POSSIBLE AT KOMA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ENDING. THE FRNT WILL SWITCH THE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST...FIRST KOFK LATE TONIGHT AND THEN ON SUN MRNG AT KOMA/KLNK. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AT ALL 3 SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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