Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 161156 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 656 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Friday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Two areas of ongoing convection this morning over central and parts of eastern Nebraska. Convection over central Nebraska is associated with a surface cold front and mid level trough from the central Dakotas into northwest Kansas, while eastern Nebraska convection associated with warm advection and overrunning of an outflow boundary across southern Nebraska. IR satellite loops show the colder cloud tops and stronger convection ahead of the surface front and upper trough while cloud tops have in general been warming across eastern Nebraska with isolated colder tops developing now and then. General trend will be for the surface front and upper trough to move east today and tonight with rain chances increases for the forecast area. Heavier rainfall is expected to focus more across eastern and southern parts of the forecast area today as the system moves through with less widespread heavy rainfall rates for areas that received the heavy rain yesterday. Will cancel flash flood watch currently in effect for northern parts of the area a bit early, prior to this forecast issuance. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may linger through this evening but stronger forcing is expected to be east of the area with front pushing into western Iowa by early this evening and showers ending after midnight. Dry weather follows behind this system on Thursday but another chance of rain enters the picture by late Thursday night and Friday as another upper trough swings through the region. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 First part of the period looks to be dry through Saturday before some chance for more intermittent showers and storms return Saturday night through Tuesday, although models differ on solutions. Main concern will be for Monday the day of the eclipse. No model consensus for that period at this time but some potential for showers and thunderstorms and clouds of course as both the GFS and EURO show a surface frontal boundary approaching the area from the northern plains during the day.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Showers and thunderstorms will continue across eastern Nebraska TAF sites through most of the morning. Some additional development is likely in the afternoon, but will be more spotty and thus not included in TAF at this time. A brief period of MVFR or IFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in and just behind precipitation, however mainly VFR cigs are forecast beyond initial band of heavier rainfall. All precipitation should be east of TAF sites by 00Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fobert LONG TERM...Fobert AVIATION...Dergan

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