Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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085 FXUS63 KOAX 151007 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 322 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Saturday) Issued at 322 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 A short-wave trough from the northern Inter-mountain region into Great Basin early this morning will advance east into the northern and central Plains later today into tonight, where it will phase with a higher-latitude system progressing along the U.S.-Canadian border. In the low levels, 08z mesoanalysis placed a weak surface low near Concordia, KS with an associated warm front stretching east-northeast through southwest Iowa. Light winds and higher moisture content along and to the immediate north of that boundary have contributed to patchy fog early this morning over far eastern NE and southwest IA. The surface low is forecast to track east into northwest MO by mid morning with winds across the area switching to northwest with it`s passage to the southeast. The patchy fog will likely linger awhile after sunrise before dissipating. Meanwhile, a strong cold front stretching from northwest MN to central MT as of 08z will advance south today, reaching northeast NE this afternoon. While a large plume of mountain-wave-induced cirrus will limit daytime heating ahead of the front, temperatures should warm into the 40s south of I-80 with mid to upper 30s to the north. The best chance for measurable precipitation will reside along the SD border this afternoon where low-level frontal uplift will be augmented by deeper-layer forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned short-wave trough. Winds will strengthen markedly from the northwest with the passage of the front tonight, ushering a continental-polar air mass into the region. Lows tonight will dip into the single digits above zero across the northern half of the area with generally 10 to 15 above in the south. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Friday night into Saturday, a fast-moving short-wave trough will track through the mid-MO Valley in tandem with a weak surface front. Highs on Saturday will warm into the upper 30s north with upper 40s south with gusty northwest winds developing during the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 322 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 Developing low pressure to our north on Sunday will yield warm and breezy conditions with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. On Sunday night into Monday, a cold front will advance southeast through the area, ahead of an amplifying mid-level trough over the Interior West. Increasing low-level heat and moisture fluxes ahead of the front will aid in the development of showery precipitation late Sunday night into Monday morning. Warm-sector precipitation type will be rain showers with some freezing rain possible in a transition zone and light snow in the north. Precipitation should gradually transition to all snow as the cold air deepens within the post-frontal environment. Highs on Monday will be dictated by how quickly the front moves south with the current forecast indicating readings ranging from 20-25 north to around 50 in far southeast NE and southwest IA. The western U.S. trough mentioned above will begin to shift east into the Plains Monday night into Tuesday when we will indicate some potential for light snow. Temperatures will likely remain below normal through the middle of next week.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1115 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Expect considerable mid or high level clouds into Thursday morning along with some fog. Visibilities as of 11 pm local time were mainly in the 5 to 10 mile range with a few locations down to near 2.5 miles. Expect that toward morning we could see some IFR visibilities to 3 miles or less at KOMA and KLNK. North winds will increase Thursday, which should cause the fog to diminish. Winds increase more from the north/northwest in the afternoon as colder air pushes in. There should also be some MVFR ceilings, mainly in the late afternoon and evening. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mead LONG TERM...Mead AVIATION...Miller

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