Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 160550 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014 ALREADY SEEING SOME VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE...SO UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR TONIGHT AND UNTIL A BIT AFTER SUNRISE. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW DENSE AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT GETS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014 THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO MO/IL AND EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDCD THAT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTNDD FROM CNTRL SD INTO WRN NEB. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLOUDS CLEARING. THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE FA. SOME PATCHY FROST/FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS BUT THE AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR AS COOL AS FRI NIGHT WITH MOST LOWS NEAR OR ABOVE 40. THE SFC HI WILL QUICKLY SHIFT E OF THE AREA ON TUE WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING DURING THE DAY. WE MAY SEE A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTN BUT THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. WAA WILL INCREASE ON TUE NIGHT AS A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS KS...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND MASS CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER ERN KS/MO AND THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECTED THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF TSRA. WE WILL CONT WITH THE SCHC POP IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE S OF OUR AREA. WE SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WED/THU FOR THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE AS WELL AS H85 TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. THE WARMING MAY BE A BIT LIMITED AS MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE MODELS /ESPECIALLY THE GFS/ ALSO INDC SOME LIGHT QPF EACH DAY ACRS PARTS OF THE FA. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH HEIGHT RISES AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE ON BOTH DAYS. THUS WE WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY ATTM UNTIL A FORCING MECHANISM BECOMES CLEARER. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014 A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW ON THU NIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CDFNT TO THE CWA AND WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO BRING A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MRNG AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SAT AFTN THROUGH MON WE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. KOMA MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY IN FOG BETWEEN 10Z-14Z WITH CALM WINDS AND WARM RIVER CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT KOFK AND KLNK DURING THIS SAME TIME. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MILLER SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...FOBERT

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