Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 190805 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 305 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(today through Tuesday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Some spotty convection could develop this morning across eastern KS and much of MO, but would remain south of the forecast area. Otherwise, today will be a warm day with breezy southerly winds and highs pushing into the mid 70s and possibly even lower 80s across southeast NE. Not bad for the last day of astronomical winter! A cold front will move into the area tonight. Most models suggest that any convective threat will exist just east of the forecast area across central IA during the evening. The GFS and SREF hint that the western edge of the convection could affect southwest IA. The ESRL HRRR and High Res NMM also hint at this as well, thus will have a slight chance of storms east of the MO river, but my instinct tells me it will probably remain dry. Dewpoints do rise into the 40s and lower 50s today, and a few counties along the MO river could see very high fire danger. Much cooler on Monday for the first day of Spring, but still above normal with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Breezy northeasterly winds prevail which will usher in drier dewpoints, with grassland fire danger indices only reaching the high category. A weak wave moves out of the central Rockies Monday night into Tuesday. This will mostly be a rain event, but will be mixed with some light snow Tuesday morning in northeast NE. Amounts will be light, with 1/2" or less in that area. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Dry conditions most of Tuesday night, although another weak wave moving out of the Rockies could bring another chance of snow and rain through Wednesday, but no accumulation expected with that system. A trough moving on shore on the west coast Wednesday night should bring increasing chances of rain into Thursday, with thunderstorms eventually becoming likely through the day Thursday into Thursday night. Models begin to substantially diverge by this time though, with details of a cold front and possible closed low becoming quite murky with overall low confidence Thursday night into Friday. GFS is much more progressive and would end precip threat much earlier than ECMWF, which would even linger precip into Friday night. Model blends hold onto precip even into Saturday, but feel that`s probably too long and later forecast packages should be able to end precip chances much quicker than currently forecast.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 A lee trough situated over the northern and central High Plains will transition to a southeastward-moving cold front which will move into the mid MO Valley Sunday afternoon into night. Ahead of the front, winds will remain southerly with LLWS criteria being met overnight at KOFK and KLNK. VFR conditions will prevail with mainly scattered to broken high-level clouds. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Mead

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