Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 260142 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 842 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 ATMOSPHERE IS RELOADING TODAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH UP TO 150M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NV. UPPER LOW REMNANT ALSO WAS EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS...CENTERED IN MN. AN 850MB LOW WAS CENTERED IN THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA....WITH TROUGH AXIS TRAILING THROUGH CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS TOWARD SECONDARY LOW IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLES/WESTERN OK. DEWPOINTS OF 8C+ HAD ADVANCED INTO KS/MO...WITH A NARROW AXIS OF 12C+ DEWPOINTS NEAR THE KS-OK BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST MO. SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST MN/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH TROUGH AXIS TRAILING THROUGH IA/EASTERN NEB. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY...AND NOT OVERLOOKING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS IN THE CWA...AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH IN EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO. HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE JUST OVER THE KS-NEB BORDER BETWEEN 12-15Z...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEB BY 18Z. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...THINKING COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY 18Z AS EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS FEED DRIER AIR INTO IA/EASTERN NEB. AS SURFACE LOW GETS TOGETHER IN WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST NEB...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST NEB...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPPING BEING ERODED BY AROUND 21- 23Z. GIVEN LARGE HODOGRAPHS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THAT AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT THREAT FOR HAIL WITH ANY STORMS IN THAT AREA...AS WELL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A HAIL/WIND THREAT INTO THE NIGHT AS THEY GROW UPSCALE...AS WELL AS THENON- NEGLIGIBLE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE AROUND CENTRAL NEB...WITH SURFACE WARM SECTOR STILL IN EASTERN NEB. WARM SECTOR MAY BE MUDDIED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS AHEAD OF A LOW BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED IN CENTRAL NEB ON WEDNESDAY...WARM SECTOR SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND DESTABILIZE AGAIN. AGAIN...SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE...THOUGH PERHAPS LESS VOLATILE THAN ON TUESDAY AND WITH MORE CONTINGENCY BASED ON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. PERSISTENT RAIN NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY ADD TO SOME OF THE CONTINUED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SLOW- MOVING NATURE OF PATTERN. DRY SLOT MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST NEB ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT AWAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS DECREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL GRADIENT NUDGED SOUTH...TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...ESPECIALLY AROUND NORTHEAST NEB WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGER LONGEST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 AFTER ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE...THE NEXT UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK....EJECTING TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY. CURRENT PROGS KEEP EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA ON THE COOL NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WITH LESS CONVECTIVE RISK BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF PROLONGED RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE AT LEAST MODERATE IN INTENSITY. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF RAIN AND CLOUDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW...NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 836 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. AFTER THAT THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH THROUGH NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARD THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...MAYES AVIATION...FOBERT

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