Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 300810 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 310 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014 NIL LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE LAST 48 HRS WITH UPPER RIDGE WEST AND ANOMALOUS DEEP TROF EAST PREVAILING. AT THIS POINT SEE LITTLE REASON FROM DEVIATING FROM GOING RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. NO DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WHERE THE BULK OF PCPN ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND DURING THIS TIME...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/SW KS/ERN OK WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014 MODELS AGREE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN STAGNANT THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAY 6 AND 7 THOUGH...THE ECM PROGS A POTENT VORT MAX DROPPING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEPICTS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING THRU. CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME PCPN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AT THIS POINT...THUS WILL GO WITH SMALL POPS TUES/TUES NIGHT AND WED PDS. OTHERWISE...NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORM TEMPS STILL APPEAR ON THE HORIZON. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014 STILL EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER WAS STILL DROPPING SEWD WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. FOR NOW...IT DOES NOT SEEM THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IF THAT MOVES INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...MILLER

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