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000
FXUS63 KOAX 140840
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTION THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN ALBERTA SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN
NEVADA. DOWNSTREAM...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA. AN EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE AND THESE ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO TO PLAY OUT SEEMS TO BE WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP
HAVE BEEN INDICATING AND THAT IS FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO CONTINUE TO CLUSTER TOGETHER AND
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING WHERE STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RESIDES. SOME OF THESE MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...AIDED BY A VEERED 35-45KT LOW LEVEL JET.

CLOUD COVER FROM MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
STRONG HEATING INITIALLY. AS HIGH PLAINS SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST TODAY...A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A RAPID WARM UP TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S BY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE A
BIT HIGH AND PUSHES FORECASTED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 4000
J/KG RANGE. WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET EARLY IN
THE EVENING AIDING TSTMS...THINK BUSIEST TIMEFRAME IN TERMS OF ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 23Z-03Z NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL MOST LIKELY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
POSSIBLE MCS AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA. ALL THIS LIMITED
OF COURSE BY CAPPING INVERSION...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE BOUNDARY
REMAINS OVER THE AREA ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK WE WILL HAVE A
CONTINUOUS PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
WITH WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...HIGHER POPS ARE WARRANTED WITH
THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING OVER THE AREA.

NO CHANGES INTO THE LATER PERIODS WITH DRIER WEATHER ON TAP FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A BIT MORE ACTIVE MID TO LATE WEEK.

KERN

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR AT ALL THREE SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA BETWEEN ABOUT 10Z AND 12Z THEN AFFECT MAINLY KOFK AND
KOMA IN THE MORNING. CEILINGS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE MAINLY
ABOVE 4000 FEET...BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY MID
TO LATE MORNING.

TSRA SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE AFTN. INCLUDED A
PROB 30 GROUP FOR THIS AT KOFK...BUT LEFT OUT FOR KOMA AND KLNK
AT HIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE.

MILLER


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$