Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 242355 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 555 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 550 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 We are allowing Winter Weather Advisory to expire on schedule at 6 PM. Snow has tapered off in advisory area, with lingering light snow now in southwest Iowa for the most part. Winds have begun coming down as well, so blowing snow issues will be dwindling quickly.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 Snow will be ending and winds/blowing snow will be decreasing this evening, so temperatures will be the main forecast concern into Monday. Fairly strong system moved through the area overnight and this morning. 500 mb 12 hour height falls at 12Z were around 110 meters at both KOAX and KTOP. Strongest jetstream level winds were down across southern New Mexico and west Texas, but there was also a jet max over the Great Lakes region, leading to a somewhat coupled jet structure. Tight mid level thermal gradient at 850 mb and 700 mb will continue to move out of the area, and high pressure at the surface should build in from the west. Axis of that high pressure should extend from central and eastern South Dakota into western Oklahoma by sunrise Saturday. Low clouds will decrease but there is some question as to how much the mid and high clouds will decrease. Will keep conditions at least partly cloudy tonight after the evening precipitation ends. Previous low temperature forecast seemed reasonable, with most lows in the teens but ranging from around 10 above at the South Dakota border to near 20 at the Missouri border. Surface winds will turn to the south or southwest on Saturday, but warming is not expected to be all that significant. Have highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s in the northern and central parts of the forecast area and 35 to 40 far south. Westerly downsloping winds and a decent amount of sunshine should push highs to the 30s north and 40s south for Sunday. The we should add about 4-6 degrees that for Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 A mid tropospheric trough axis should extend from central Canada back toward California at the start of this period, then progress east to the Mississippi River valley region by Thursday. Model agreement is not great on the details but there are enough signals for us to include some mention of rain or snow (depending on surface temperatures) for Monday night into Tuesday night. The 12Z ECMWF was fairly bullish with rain and snow Tuesday, but for now it just seemed too wet. We may see some water equivalent amounts from 0.10 to 0.25 based on the GFS. Highs will be mainly in the 40s to mid 50s Tuesday through Friday with lows in the 20s to lower 30s. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 550 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 Light snow was moving out of TAF sites at TAF issuance, so no restrictions to vsbys are expected. Otherwise, a trend to increasing cig heights are expected as band of VFR cigs near FL040 works east of the area. Mid level cigs are forecast for several hours initially, with a trend toward scattered high clouds through the night. Some warm advection mid level cigs will likely overspread eastern Nebraska on Saturday. Also, northwest winds gusting to 25kt should be decreasing to or below 12kt between 03Z and 06Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...None. IA...None.
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&& $$ UPDATE...Dergan SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Dergan

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