Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 210412 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1112 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014 MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS HEAT THEN POSSIBLE TSTMS. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A HIGH PRESSURE DOME CENTERED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION REMAINING IN CONTROL OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THRU THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. LOOKS LIKE ITS TIME TO PAY OUR DUES FOR THE PLEASANT WEATHER ENJOYED AS OF LATE. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COMBINATION OF LLVL JET RAMPING UP ALONG WITH AN OPEN GULF WILL RESULT IN STOUT LLVL MOISTURE ADV TO COME INTO PLAY LATER TONIGHT. BY MON AFTN...WITH SFC DEW PTS HOVERING AROUND THE MID 70S...COMBINATION OF HEAT/RH WILL RESULT IN RATHER OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS MON AFTN OVER THE CWA. A CHECK OF HEAT INDEX T-SECT PROGS OVER VARIOUS PLACES SUGGEST HEAT ADV CRITERIA OF 105 SHOULD BE EASILY MET OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA. SAME SCENARIO ON TAP TUES AFTN AS WELL WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING AROUND 105. HOWEVER...SOME RELIEF IS EXPECTED WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY TUES EVENING AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWS AROUND 2" OR MORE ALONG AXIS OF STRONG BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG/RELATIVELY DEEP QG FORCING WHICH IS PROGGED TO SET UP OVER THE SRN CWA. APPEARS THAT THIS SFC BNDRY WILL SLOW UP THRU TUES NIGHT BEFORE CONTINUING SE...THUS A SMALL CHANCE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO LATE WED MORNING. COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN THEN WED. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014 APPEARS THAT THE RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS WILL HANG AROUND DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. IN ADDITION..TSTM CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND A COUPLE FROPAS OVER THE CWA. MODELS ADVERTISE LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE EVENTUALLY BREAKING DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOC WARM FRONT INDUCING TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO EVENTUALLY OCCLUDE ON SAT AS SFC LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN WRT SFC BNDRY POSITIONING...SEEMS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN LOW POPS THURSDAY THRU LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NOW. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT AFTN HIGHS WILL OVERALL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MID/UPPER 80S ON TAP. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014 SOME INDICATION FROM EVENING MODELS THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD INDEED FORM AGAIN BY MORNING AS HAD BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREAD COULD REMAIN GREATER THAT PAST FEW MORNINGS AS READINGS/WINDS WERE A LITTLE HIGHER...DECIDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP OF CIGS NEAR FL010 FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WOULD EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUICK EROSION IN THE LOWER CLOUDS...IF THEY DO INDEED FORM...AS TEMPERATURES/WINDS INCREASE BY MID MORNING.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056- 069-079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...CHERMOK

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