Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 131123 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 623 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014 MILDER WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. AREAS OF FROST ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...SO WILL MAINTAIN FROST ADVISORY AS IS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ALSO BEING REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS UNDER CORE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WITH THAT HIGH SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING...WEAK RETURN FLOW HAS BEGUN IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND WILL SPREAD OVER OUR CWA TODAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THIS WARMER FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS. SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT TRAVELS THROUGH BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WAVE WILL SHARPEN AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. BEST FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES LOOKS TO COME LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. HOWEVER SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH CHANCES SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND PUSHING HIGHS CLOSER TO 70 ON SUNDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE...LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF COOLING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND 850 THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD GAIN ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM THE 50S EARLY TO THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014 THE LONGER TERM PERIOD SHOULD OFFER A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK AS SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING TOWARD THE PLAINS. WHILE MODELS SHOW A SPORADIC RIPPLE OR TWO TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...INCONSISTENCIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL LONGER WAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE PLAINS FRIDAY. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY...RISING FROM UPPER 60S TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER HAS NOT MOVED OVER THE TAF SITES. WILL KEEP A SHORT TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS IN CASE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING AND WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON. DID INCLUDE A SCATTERED CU DECK WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AROUND SUNSET. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ015>018- 030>034-042>045-050-051-065-066-078-088-089. IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056- 069-079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...KERN

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