Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 172312 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 612 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 There will still be some scattered showers and possibly isolated thunder for a while yet this evening. Surface low was just northeast of Sioux City at 6 pm and should continue to move off to the northeast. Low clouds should wrap in from the northwest this evening and overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 T-Storms will be exiting the area early this evening, but showers may linger for a while, especially in the northern parts of the forecast area. Concern after that will switch toward potential for storms and heavy rain Thursday night into Friday night. Will not issue a flash flood watch for those periods, but something may be needed in later forecasts. Low pressure system will move off toward southeast Minnesota by midnight, while cold front pushes southeast through the region. A weak ridge of high pressure should build into the region for Thursday, with a mainly dry period during the day. That will quickly change though in the evening as the strong closed mid level system currently out over southern Idaho tracks southeast. By Thursday evening, that system should be centered over Colorado with strong diffluence aloft and moisture increasing in our area. Instability will be highest across the southern parts of the forecast area and there will be a marginal risk for severe storms. Risk appears should be higher from Kansas southward. Precipitable water values increase Thursday night into the 1.00 to 1.50 inch range, then decrease a little Friday, before increasing again Friday night. Temperatures Thursday should reach the upper 60s to mid 70s south, ranging to only upper 50s and lower 60s north. Then lows Thursday night are expected to be 40s north and mostly upper 40s to lower 50S. System will lift up into western South Dakota by sunrise Saturday, then toward northern Minnesota by late Saturday night. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Conditions should dry out for Saturday into through Sunday, then the next low pressure system moves in late Sunday night into Monday with a chance of showers and storms. A trough will move toward the area from the northwest, in northwest flow. Pattern looks cool for Tuesday into Thursday, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Model timing differences start to increase by Tuesday, so stayed fairly close to a blend of all model guidance Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Ceilings will likely decrease to MVFR tonight as low level moisture moves in from the northwest. IFR conditions possible at KOFK for much of the overnight. West winds will turn to the northwest, with some gusts, then become north Thursday.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Miller SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Miller

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