Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 290931 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 331 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(today through Thursday) Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 WV imagery/88D profilers revealing well defined, tight circulation and sfc reflection centered over the ern Dakotas. Meanwhile, regional obs showing a couple of somewhat subtle sfc boundaries...one stretching from about NW IA to NW KS, and the other being a secondary caa surge from SW SD to NE CO. At present...areas of light SN over the Dakotas wrapping around the backside of the sfc low corresponding well with pockets of 285K-295K isentropic upglide...per RAP13. Radar trends coupled with HRRR/RAP13 output suggest activity not reaching the CWA until late this morning with initial pcpn type RA/SN mix before turning to all SN this evening. SN activity continues then thru Wednesday morning....then back to a RA/SN mix in the aftn. As for accumulations...good model agreement pcpn will pretty much be confined roughly north of a line from Portsmouth to Elgin with total SN amounts generally half an inch or less. It is possible though that local SN amounts may reach an inch or so. Dry and colder then heading into this weekend. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 ECM and GFS continue to advertise NIL active weather to contend with along with a modest warming trend late this weekend. Come next Monday/Monday night per the GFS...another storm system/attendant cold front will allow for the next round of RA or RA/SN over the CWA. However...both the ECM/CMC delay possible pcpn mix until Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 The large storm system over the Dakotas and Minnesota will continue to affect the TAFs through 06Z Tuesday night; especially KOFK early on. Surface winds at KOFK should be 10 to 15kt and generally under 10kts through 12Z at KOMA and KLNK. Included LLWS at the TAF sites with 30 to 35kt into Tuesday morning. There will be a push of reinforcing stronger northwest winds Tuesday and these will mix down with WNW winds 12-20kts and gusty. Patchy MVFR conditions are generally just north of KOFK. Will mention patchy MVFR, then prevailing MVFR with the stronger more northwest flow. KOMA/KLNK appear to remain VFR until Tuesday afternoon. May see flurries or sprinkles Tuesday afternoon and included a PROB30 at KOFK. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Zapotocny

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