Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 250902 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 402 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS AROUND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST. A FAIRLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED AS WE RECHARGE FOR NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST TOWARD MINNESOTA TODAY. NEXT TROUGH HAS JUST MOVED ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF 50 METER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS IS ALLOWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z OR SO. A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR SOUTH WITH FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CLOSED CIRCULATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY TUESDAY ALLOWING STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO STAY CLOSE TO THE NE/KS BORDER WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. IMPRESSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS LOW LEVEL FLOW STREAMS NORTH OFF THE GULF. PW`S OFF THE NAM SUGGEST 200% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITHIN THE THETA-E AXIS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR ANY HYDRO CONCERNS AS SOILS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO...IF NOT ALREADY...SATURATED IN SOME AREAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AROUND 12Z AND SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL DEVELOPING FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE WARM SECTOR DRIFTS NORTH AND DRYLINE SHIFTS EAST. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35-45KTS SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATEST IN OUR SOUTH ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA. MAIN FOCUS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ALONG THE EASTWARD MOVING DRYLINE...WHICH FOR THE MOST PART COULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BUT COULD REACH INTO OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR DAY 2 WITH A MODERATE RISK IN OUR SOUTHWEST. STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SCATTERED...LIKELY ELEVATED...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. WEDNESDAY FORECAST WILL BE QUITE MESSY AND DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. SOME RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SO WE HAVE BEEN OUTLOOKED IN THE SWODY3 FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016 WE ACTUALLY HAVE A CHANCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FINALLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TAKES AIM AT THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. AN OPEN GULF AND CLOSED LOW MEAN CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016 VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRIMARY CONCERN IS A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT OF WIND AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. COULD ALSO SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS BY 15-17Z...BUT THEN DIMINISH BY 21-23Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEWALD

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