Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 181735 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1235 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014 HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS 1500-FT STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLOUD COVER MAINTAINING ITSELF THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. DID ALLOW A RAPID DISSIPATION IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MOISTURE LAYER IS THIN AND MIXING SHOULD INCREASE AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NEB MOVES EASTWARD. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT LOWERED TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOUDS...AS TEMPERATURES ALSO GOT A WARMER START THIS MORNING DUE TO THE CLOUDS...BUT COULD SEE SOME POCKETS STRUGGLING TO REACH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IF CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014 WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER PATTERN HAD NORTH OR NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA THIS MORNING...ON BACK SIDE OF LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO THE WEST...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WAS NOTED IN THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALSO OF NOTE WAS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL RIDE INTO THE PLAINS AND DROP THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...AND WILL DRIFT EAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY. RELATIVELY COOL ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR AREA TODAY WILL BE SLOW TO MIX EAST UNDER LIGHT FLOW REGIME. SO HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO TOP 60 DESPITE PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LOWS SHOULD HOLD ABOVE 40...THEN REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT HIGHS CLOSE TO 70 STILL REMAIN LIKELY. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING. ANOTHER SUNNY AND LIGHT WIND DAY IS EXPECTED THEN...WITH HIGHS AGAIN APPROACHING 70 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014 SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY WILL SETTLE INTO THE EASTERN STATES BY TUESDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN RATHER QUICKLY AS WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A SHARPER/STRONGER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS THAN MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES WERE HINTING AT JUST 24 HOURS AGO. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE INCREASED SOME...WITH A LITTLE EARLIER START TIME. PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE NORTH FROM WESTERN MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE FRONT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014 MVFR CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO BREAK...WITH INTERMITTENT COVERAGE EXPECTED AT KOMA/KOFK FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO UNTIL CLOUDS SCATTER. CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10KT THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 12-14KT MID TO LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MAYES SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...MAYES

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