Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 261956 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 256 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015 MODELS ADVERTISING CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE REGIONAL RADAR WAS SHOWING AREA OF NARROW LINE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER WRN IA WITH THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN LIFTING THRU IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE IA CWA THOUGH BY LATE THIS AFTN. MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIRES AWR/NMM ARE IN AGREEMENT NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE OVER WRN NEB ALONG AXIS OF 0-3KM CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG. ACTIVITY PROGGED THEN TO REACH THE NEB CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS THEN MOVE ACROSS THE IA CWA THURSDAY MORNING. INFLUX OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LEADING UP CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE. INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLVL JET WILL ALLOW PCPN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BNDRY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS...SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR MORE...WILL BE HIGH HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015 MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS ANTICIPATED COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. METEOGRAMS THOUGH CLEARLY INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015 MVFR CIGS MAY CONT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT KOMA/KOFK BEFORE BASES RISE TO AOA FL040. THIS VFR BKN DECK WILL LIKELY THEN CONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING THIS EVNG. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTN DEVELOP FOR KOMA/KLNK AS A WEAK FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. SKIES WILL GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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