Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 090848 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 348 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014 NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW PROGGED TO SET UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY. YESTERDAY`S VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE SMOKE PLUME STRETCHING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADIAN FIRES INTO THE DAKOTAS. IF THICK ENOUGH...THIS COULD LIMIT TEMPS TODAY AS WELL BUT THAT IS TOUGH TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT. THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP DO INDICATE AN AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A QUICK MOVING IMPULSE DROPPING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND SO THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN CWA AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS NOSE OF MODEST LLVL JET SHIFTS EASTWARD. A BIT OF A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGS JULY MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. ELONGATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT. BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE NOCTURNAL AS THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLVL JET ADVECTS EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD AID IN ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS THE CWA. THE SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY...PLACING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KS/NEB BORDER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014 ROUNDS OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT ANY ONE PARTICULAR PERIOD SO HAVE LEFT SMALL POPS IN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE CONTINUOUS ACTIVITY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014 VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE REGION. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 18Z ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...FOBERT

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