Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 272010 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014 THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. CUT OFF LOW OVER IOWA WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY THEN FINALLY MOVE EAST. A DECENT TROUGH AT 500 MB IS/WAS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A CLOSED LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT 12Z. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE ESTIMATED AT UP TO 100 METERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WINDS OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WERE DEPICTED AT 300 MB TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FEATURE. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TRANSPORT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER AN INCH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z SUNDAY WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNE TO BEATRICE. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAD LOW POPS IN FOR LATE TONIGHT IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. THAT STILL LOOKS GOOD BASED ON 12Z NAM...12Z HIRES ARW AND MOST RECENT HRRR. LINGERED SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FROM SUNDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S. MOST OF THE MODELS...AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST...ARE DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS DID GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW DID NOT MENTION ANY PCPN IN THESE PERIODS. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S OR AROUND 60 SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS MTHE WET PATTERN GENERALLY REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FINALLY TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD BRING AN OVERALL DRIER BUT COOL PATTERN FOR THE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THAT FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...SO CAN NOT SAY NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE TOTALLY DRY...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT TO SAY IT WILL BE COOL (HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S). ONDAY IN THE LOWER 80S. THINGS START TO CHANGE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE THAT WILL BE KICKING OUT ACROSS WYOMING. CLOSED LOW SHOULD MOVE TO CENTRAL ND BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.50 INCHES SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF DECENT DYNAMICS TO GENERATE PCPN. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014 THE WET PATTERN IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD GENERALLY CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO CANADA BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FINALLY TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND... WHICH SHOULD BRING A GENERALLY DRIER BUT COOL PATTERN FOR THE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THAT FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME... SO CAN NOT SAY NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE TOTALLY DRY...BUT CAN SAY CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT IT WILL BE COOL (HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S).
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&& .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PESKY UPPER LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AFTER AFTER 12Z. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES AT KOFK AND KLNK. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE HAVE ONLY ADDED VCSH AT THOSE TWO TAF SITES FOR NOW. SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 18-24KT RANGE. WINDS WILL WILL REMAIN SOUTH SOUTHEAST BUT WILL DROP OFF UNDER 10KTS AFTER 00Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...MEYER

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