Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 270827 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 327 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015 PCPN CHANCES LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...THEN AGAIN FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. LARGE SCALE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN AT 00Z LAST EVENING FEATURED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA UP INTO WESTERN CANADA AND A TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY HAD MOVED DOWN INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY LATE EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND HALF AN INCH OCCURRED IN SOME OF THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BETWEEN KOFK AND KYKN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL DATA WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE MOST RECENT 13 KM RAP MODEL RUNS. THIS SUGGESTS PCPN MAY REACH INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON PCPN TYPE...BUT OPTED TO INCLUDE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF THE PCPN WILL BE RAIN WHILE THE RAP AND HRRR ARE HINTING AT MORE SNOW. FOR NOW...EXPECT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT 850 MB...WITH COLDEST AIR IN IOWA. DID MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY THERE (WESTERN IOWA) FOR TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH MAINLY INTO THE 60S. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. KEPT A SMALL MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING MOST AREAS AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS PCPN WILL BE ALL LIQUID. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015 THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF CONCERN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE WITH FRONTAL TIMING ON WEDNESDAY...SO JUST KEPT A BLEND OF THE OUTPUT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THEN POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY... WHICH COULD BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO KOMA 01-05Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DEWALD

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