Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 191713 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1213 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014 DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER MIDDLE AMERICA SATURDAY... BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO OUR CWA. HOWEVER A CHILLY AIRMASS OVERHEAD KEPT TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY AS THE HIGH WAS SLIDING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN. SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST UPPER FLOW WAS NOTED ON UPPER AIR CHARTS SATURDAY EVENING. WITHIN THAT FLOW...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ITS EAST-SOUTHEAST TREK THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NUDGING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON... HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SATURDAY READINGS. SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT HIGHS A BIT...BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. FRONT WILL LIMP THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH BULK OF MID LEVEL ENERGY SHOOTING OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RULE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND LINGERING THERE MOST OF MONDAY. HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD REACH 70 MONDAY AS COOLING BEHIND BOUNDARY IS RELATIVELY WEAK. FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL IN THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CONTINUED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH AIRMASS SIMILAR TO MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS TUESDAY WILL COME CLOSE TO MONDAY READINGS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014 RAIN CHANCES FINALLY RETURN IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE PLAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILES. INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AS TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MAXIMUM OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.50 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS ALMOST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL MID OCTOBER VALUES. COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE FRONT SHOULD SPELL FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY FORECASTS LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CERTAINLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE LIKELY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SHALLOW UPPER RIDGING SHOULD RETURN US BACK TO A DRY AND MILD FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO GO FROM SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...

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