Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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477 FXUS63 KOAX 252320 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 620 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(tonight through Saturday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016 Potential for periods of thunderstorms will extend through the short term portion of the forecast. Good moisture and instability is expected to remain across the region during this time frame as a pair of upper troughs kick out a series of short waves across the plains region. Surface map at 19z showed an area of low pressure over northeast South Dakota with a weak trough extending from the low into northwest Nebraska. A second low was over south central Kansas with a warm front extending into northeast Kansas and a dry line stretching south into north central Texas. These two surface features are expected to be the primary focus for thunderstorm development into Thursday. A few storms had already developed over far western Nebraska and western South Dakota early this afternoon with short range models showing them spreading east ahead of the Dakota surface trough into the evening as an upper wave tracks toward the upper midwest. Main focus then shifts to the south on Thursday and Thursday night with Kansas system as warm front lifts north to vicinity of southern Nebraska border by late afternoon. This boundary continues to lift into eastern Nebraska during the evening becoming stationary in a northeast to southwest orientation by late evening into early Friday. Combination of stalled boundary and high PW will allow strong chance of heavy rain event across the area Thursday night, likely preceeded by severe weather event late Thursday afternoon and evening. No headlines at this time but will mention in HWO and blast message to increase awareness of the potential. Chance of storms will continue for Friday into Saturday as the main upper trough moves across the lower Missouri valley. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016 Upper pattern flattens for a time behind the lower Missouri valley trough Saturday night into Sunday but begins to amplify again Sunday night into Monday. This will allow another extended period of showers and thunderstorms to setup across the region through Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 00Z Friday) Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016 A strato-cu deck which developed over southeast and east-central Nebraska this afternoon is in the process of mixing out with VFR ceilings at KOMA and KLNK likely scattering out this evening. Thunderstorms currently developing over central Nebraska will approach KOFK around 03 to 04z. Confidence in KOFK being affected remains low, so a TEMPO group will not be included at this juncture. Otherwise, expect winds to gradually switch to easterly or southeasterly on Thursday as a warm front develops across the area. The chance of thunderstorms will increase after 18z Thursday.
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&& .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fobert LONG TERM...Fobert AVIATION...Mead

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