Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 171919 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 219 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014 SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...THE PRIMARY NEAR-TERM CONCERN IS DENSE FOG...THIS TIME OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA. METARS FOR SDA/ICL/RDK/AIO HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES. MUCH OF THIS DENSE FOG IS TIED TO LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL AND GIVEN THE LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE STICKING AROUND UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR TODAY EXPECT DRY WEATHER...AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY EVENING...AS THE AREA IS IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. BY TONIGHT THE NEXT FEATURE ENTERS FROM THE NORTHWEST ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AVERAGING AROUND 4-6 DM. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...FOR OUR AREA CONDITIONS JUST AREN/T IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...INSTABILITY WANES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE MARGINAL ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS STRONG STORMS PROPAGATE EAST...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR US WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AFTN/EVENING AND THROUGH TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014 BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. ITS HARD TO SAY THIS WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE AT MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN HOW HIT AND MISS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RECENTLY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECT TIMING/PLACEMENT TO WORK ITSELF OUT IN FORTHCOMING MODEL RUNS. THEREAFTER THE FORECAST PICTURE IS QUITE UNCLEAR WITH A SIMILAR STORY OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST LONG TERM GUIDANCE HINTS AT A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING A DOSE OF COOLER AIR AND VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014 HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF LOCATIONS BASED ON MOST RECENT HI RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM ARW MODEL DATA. STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD REACH THE KOFK BY 03Z WHERE WE WENT WITH A TEMPORARY GROUP WITH VARIABLE WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS. STILL KEPT A PROB30 GROUP FOR KLNK BY 04Z AND KOMA BY 06Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PEARSON LONG TERM...PEARSON AVIATION...DEWALD

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